You've joined a new game. At first, all goes well. You manage to secure a good alliance with a neighbour, and make solid progress against a mutual target. You overcome your first target and move on to your second, until your partner leaves himself just a little too open. You stab ruthlessly, decimating his forces. Your path to victory is clear! Slowly your SC count increases toward the magic number: twelve… fifteen… seventeen…
Seventeen…
Seventeen…
Seventeen…
…and you realize that you're stuck. The remaining players have managed to set up a stalemate line. They aren't about to push you back, but they can contain you indefinitely. No longer do you have any prospect of victory. Instead, the armies of Europe are fated to slog it out in years of destructive trench warfare: and this game is going to end in a draw.
How do you avoid this frustrating scenario? Obviously, the key is to get across all possible stalemate lines before the coalition to stop you forms. And that means you have to take stalemate lines into account as part of your game-long strategy from the very first turn. This means:
These factors should inform all your actions. Who should you choose as your ally? What centers should you take as your share of the spoils? When should you stab? These are all questions that your position vis-a-vis the stalemate lines can have a crucial part in answering.
There are plenty of ways to get stuck in Diplomacy, unfortunately. Both the Diplomacy Archive and the Diplomatic Pouch contain sections that are dedicated to the topic of stalemate lines. There are a lot of them!
In this discussion, we'll only look at the primary stalemate positions listed in the Pouch section on stalemates: those that divide the board into two sections of seventeen centers each. There are plenty of stalemate lines that defend sixteen centers or fewer, but that leaves eighteen centers for the other side — enough for a solo victory — so they're less crucial. They're still worth looking at, however, and some of them can be extended to include a seventeenth center. For now, we'll only look at the primary 17/17 lines that are explicitly defined in the Pouch stalemate archive.
So what are these primary stalemate lines?
The dominant strategic feature of the board is the main stalemate line, which comes into play frequently. However, it isn't the only stalemate line with a 17/17 split. According to the Diplomacy Archive section on stalemate lines, there's at least one western wall (Position 8: Enemy holds Germany and StP); two similar Eastern positions (Position 2 and Position 3 respectively) which require fleets on both north and south coasts; and a single Southern position (Position 6). However, unlike the main stalemate line, these other primary stalemate lines do not hold both ways: the seventeen centers on the other side cannot necessarily be held in an exact opposite stalemate line. As a consequence, these other lines apply to fewer Powers.
It stretches from the St Petersburg/Moscow border, from Livonia through the empty German and Austrian provinces to Piedmont, and again through the Gulf of Lyons and Western Mediterranean sea spaces to North Africa. And every Diplomacy player should memorize it, because it is easily the most important strategic factor in the game.
For some Powers, this line is a minor nuisance; for others, it's the key division that they must keep in mind every single turn of the game:
This stalemate line seems to serve as the most natural division of the board, perhaps because other than the St Petersburg/Moscow border, it's divided by non-SC provinces along its entire length. This makes it easy to demilitarize, increasing the likelihood that a leading power won't try to cross it until conflict over other, contiguous supply centers has been resolved.
The western 17/17 stalemate position holds Scandinavia, the Low Countries, England, France, and Italy. It seems most likely to be used against a dominant Austria or Turkey that has failed to attack Italy until it was too late, although it may also be needed against a southern-focussed Russia who has neglected Scandinavia — or been forced out before Russian forces could be brought fully to bear (pardon the pun!).
Although the German home centers are all on the eastern side of this line, it seems unlikely that a prosperous Germany will be stopped by it. Germany's natural growth pattern leads it to cross this line on the very first move, with Fleet Kiel usually going to either Denmark or Holland. Although the country could theoretically be pushed back in the west, the Kaiser should probably be worrying about the other stalemate lines far more.
The two eastern positions are similar. Since they both require fleets on both the northern and the southern coasts of Europe, Russia is the most likely Power to be involved in this situation — either as the sole defender, or as part of a coalition with an Austrian or Turkish ally. Of course, it's still possible to hold this line when Russia has been conquered: in this case, the most likely defenders are a beleaguered Germany, and Austria or Turkey.
The attacker(s), of course, is most likely England or France. Italy may also find itself facing this line, especially the second position where the defender holds Munich, Kiel, and Denmark rather than Trieste, Serbia, and Greece.
This line defends the entire Mediterranean. It's centered on Italy, but Austria and/or Turkey may also hold it if they can get their fleets far enough west in time. However, it seems more likely that the defenders here will be Italy plus one of Austria or Turkey. A successful AI alliance, for example, may use this line to defend against an attack from the north.
That attack seems most likely to come from Germany, though England is also a possibility. The line should be less useful against a successful France, since a successful France probably won't have lost Marseilles and the Iberian peninsula. Similarly, a successful Russia is likely to hold at least Rumania; however, it does seem more probable that Russia can be forced out of the Balkans while still doing well in the North.
So, knowing what the primary lines are, how can you avoid getting trapped behind them?
As always, Caissic analysis can provide some useful clues as to the best course of action. What supply centers on the other side of each line are closest to your own home supply centers?
For the main stalemate line, the closest trans-line centers to each Great Power's home centers break down as follows:
Country | Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|
Austria: | Munich (2 moves) Marseilles, Berlin, Kiel (3 moves) |
England: | Moscow, Tunis (4 moves) Naples, Rome, Warsaw (5 moves) |
France: | Venice (2 moves) Rome, Tunis, Naples (3 moves) |
Germany: | Venice, Vienna, Trieste, Warsaw (2 moves) |
Italy: | Munich, Marseilles (2 moves) Spain, Berlin, Kiel (3 moves) |
Turkey: | St Petersburg (4 moves) Marseilles, Munich, Norway, Spain (5 moves) |
Again, note that Russia is not considered here, since that country starts with home centers on both sides of the line.
The western line already holds all the home centers of England, France, and Italy; so we need only look at the remaining four Powers:
Country | Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|
Austria: | Venice (1 move) Rome (2 moves) Marseilles, Naples(3 moves) |
Germany: | Denmark, Holland (1 move) Belgium, Sweden (2 moves) |
Russia: | Norway (1 move) Sweden (2 moves) Denmark (3 moves) |
Turkey: | Naples (3 moves) Rome, Tunis (4 moves) |
The two eastern lines are similar, both being centered on Russia (and Turkey). The difference between the two is that one holds more territory in the south, while the other focusses on the north. Austria, Germany, Russia, and Turkey are all either completely on one side of the line, or else straddle it; so it's England, France, and Italy that must cross it.
Country | Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|
England: | Norway (2 moves) Sweden, St Petersburg (3 moves) |
France: | Vienna, Berlin, Norway (3 moves) |
Italy: | Trieste (1 move) Vienna, Budapest, Serbia, Greece (2 moves) |
Country | Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|
England: | Norway, Denmark (2 moves) Sweden, St Petersburg, Kiel (3 moves) |
France: | Munich (2 moves) Kiel, Berlin, Norway (3 moves) |
Italy: | Vienna, Budapest, Munich (2 moves) |
Finally, the southern stalemate line contains Austria, Italy, and Turkey; France has a single home center within it. So England, Germany, and Russia have to be most concerned with this line.
Country | Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|
England: | Portugal, Spain (3 moves) Marseilles (4 moves) |
Germany: | Marseilles, Vienna, Trieste, Venice (2 moves) |
Russia: | Rumania (1 move) Sweden (2 moves) Denmark (3 moves) |
So using these numbers, let's consider the moves each Power requires to reach the closest center on the other side of the primary stalemate lines:
Country | MSL | WL | EL1 | EL2 | SL | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria: | 2 moves | 1 move | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
England: | 4 moves | N/A | 2 moves | 2 moves | 3 moves | 11 |
France: | 2 moves | N/A | 3 moves | 2 moves | N/A | 7 |
Germany: | 2 moves | 1 move | N/A | N/A | 2 moves | 5 |
Italy: | 2 moves | N/A | 1 move | 2 moves | N/A | 5 |
Russia: | N/A | 1 move | N/A | N/A | 1 move | 2 |
Turkey: | 4 moves | 3 moves | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
From this analysis, it seems that Russia has the best position overall with regard to the primary stalemate lines; there are only two that really apply, and the Tsar can cross those easily — very likely in the first few moves, since Sweden and Rumania are both generally considered to be natural centers for Russia.
On the other end of the scale, we find England. The Prime Minister has to worry about every line except the western one, and needs at least four moves to cross the main stalemate line!
Germany and Italy appear to be in the middle of the pack. Each is affected by three lines, but only has to move one or two spaces away to capture a center on the other side.
The other three Powers have results that are somewhat surprising. According to these numbers, France and Turkey are roughly equivalent; Turkey is subject to one less line, but must go far to cross the remaining two. Austria's rating is second only to Russia's; but since its most natural path for expansion leads away from the main and western lines to the Balkans, this may be deceiving…
In theory, the closest centers should be more likely to be part of a countries final eighteen; but how does that work out in real games?
Luckily for us, in the F2007R issue Josh Burton wrote a wonderful article about solo victories, in which he uses the results from almost eleven thousand games to gather statistics on the centers that each Great Power is most likely to own when they reach 18+. Comparing these actual results with the expected centers shows that the breakthrough centers aren't always the closest ones.
It's important to remember that these statistics don't say anything about the order in which centers are taken. For example, a majority of French victories include the north-western section of the main stalemate line, plus Tunis: but does France typically reach Sweden first? Or do most Presidents secure Tunis before turning north to drive out another Power that doesn't have enough fleets to hold Scandinavia? I suspect the latter, but the statistics don't say. It's up to you to decide the best course of action, using good strategic sense to decide when to strike where.
Country | Expected Breakthrough Centers | Actual Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|---|
Austria: | Munich (2 moves) Marseilles, Berlin, Kiel (3 moves) | Munich (77.46%) Berlin (55.11%) St Petersburg (36.93%) |
England: | Moscow, Tunis (4 moves) Naples, Rome, Warsaw, Sevastopol (5 moves) | Tunis (60.13%) Warsaw (41.92%) Moscow (40.35%) |
France: | Venice (2 moves) Rome, Tunis, Naples (3 moves) | Tunis (85.24%) Rome (44.18%) Naples (40.44%) |
Germany: | Venice, Vienna, Trieste, Warsaw (2 moves) | Warsaw (87.20%) Moscow (75.47%) Vienna (45.01%) |
Italy: | Munich, Marseilles (2 moves) Spain, Berlin, Kiel (3 moves) | Marseilles (80.34%) Portugal (74.21%) Spain (60.89%) |
Turkey: | St Petersburg (4 moves) Marseilles, Munich, Norway, Spain (5 moves) | Marseilles (47.67%) Munich (43.93%) Portugal (40.57%) |
Josh comments on these results in his own article, and makes some useful observations. Note that while there's a great deal of correlation here between proximity and the frequency with which a center appears in the top eighteen, there isn't an exact match. The order of the results is often different from that expected, and there are a few results that are surprising:
From these results, it's clear that proximity isn't the only factor that determines how convenient it is for a Power to take and hold a particular center.
Country | Expected Breakthrough Centers | Actual Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|---|
Austria: | Venice (1 move) Rome (2 moves) Marseilles, Naples(3 moves) | Venice (92.42%) Naples (82.20%) Rome (79.92%) |
Germany: | Denmark, Holland (1 move) Belgium, Sweden (2 moves) | Denmark (99.87%) Holland (99.46%) Sweden (98.11%) |
Russia: | Norway (1 move) Sweden (2 moves) Denmark (3 moves) | Sweden (88.53%) Norway (86.94%) Denmark (75.91%) |
Turkey: | Naples (3 moves) Rome, Tunis (4 moves) | Venice (94.44%) Naples (94.06%) Rome (91.99%). |
Here again the results do not exactly match the proximity, though there are fewer dramatic surprises. Note that Austria and Turkey are more likely to take all three Italian home centers than other centers that are closer to them; this may be because once they take one Italian home center, they must complete the conquest of Italy in order to hold it.
Country | Expected Breakthrough Centers | Actual Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|---|
England: | Norway (2 moves) Sweden, St Petersburg (3 moves) | Norway (99.84%) Sweden (98.27%) St Petersburg (95.45%) |
France: | Vienna, Berlin, Norway (3 moves) | Norway (82.22%) Sweden (81.19%) Berlin (75.16%) |
Italy: | Trieste (1 move) Vienna, Budapest, Serbia, Greece (2 moves) | Trieste (92.18%) Greece (92.60%) Serbia (87.10%) |
Here, the biggest discrepancy between proximity and results occurs for France, which is more likely to establish a foothold in Scandinavia than on the far side of the Alps.
Country | Expected Breakthrough Centers | Actual Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|---|
England: | Norway, Denmark (2 moves) Sweden, St Petersburg, Kiel (3 moves) | Norway (99.84%) Sweden (98.27%) Denmark (98.43%) |
France: | Munich (2 moves) Kiel, Berlin, Norway (3 moves) | Kiel (91.79%) Munich (88.67%) Norway (82.22%) |
Italy: | Vienna, Budapest, Munich (2 moves) | Smyrna (86.68%) Bulgaria (85.62%) Constantinople (85.41%) |
The results for Italy are dramatically different! This is most likely due to the importance of naval power for Italy; Munich, Vienna, and Budapest may all be close to Venice, but they are all completely landlocked centers that Italian fleets cannot influence.
Country | Expected Breakthrough Centers | Actual Breakthrough Centers |
---|---|---|
England: | Portugal, Spain (3 moves) Marseilles (4 moves) | Spain (89.17%) Portugal (89.01%) Marseilles (83.20%) |
Germany: | Marseilles, Vienna, Trieste, Venice (2 moves) | Marseilles (67.12%) Portugal (55.66%) Spain (53.64%) |
Russia: | Rumania (1 move) Budapest, Serbia, Bulgaria, Vienna Constantinople, Smyrna, Ankara (2 moves) | Rumania (92.02%) Budapest (88.39%) Vienna (87.52%) |
Here the biggest discrepancy occurs for Germany, which is more likely to seize Iberia than the closer centers in Central Europe. Again, this may be because Spain and Portugal usually go to France early on in the game, so a German who heads west may need to take those two centers to finish the job.
So, what do all these numbers tell us? How can you plan to avoid getting stuck with a stalemate?
Well, proximity to your home centers is definitely an important factor in determining which breakthrough centers are most accessible to you. The closer that breakthrough center is, the easier it is for you to grab and secure it before your opposition can stop you.
However, that isn't the only factor at work. Accessibility also depends on the leverage you can bring to bear on the breakthrough center. Centers that you can easily approach from two or more different paths are more vulnerable to you. Thus, it's easier for Germany to take Moscow than Venice, even though Venice is closer to Germany's home centers: the Kaiser can approach Moscow by moving Munich -> Silesia -> Warsaw and Berlin -> Prussia -> Livonia, while he has fewer paths to Venice. Italy more frequently seizes Bulgaria and the Mediterranean coast of Turkey — where it can combine land and sea forces — than it conquers the inland centers of Budapest and Vienna.
It's also important to account for the opposition you're likely to encounter. If you take another Power's home center, you may be obliged to finish off that Power, even though its other home centers may be further away than the alternatives. Otherwise you may face counter-attacks as the country devotes its main efforts to recovering the lost home SC.
Finally, your initial direction can have a profound effect on your ability to cross the stalemate lines. If your most natural routes for expansion lead you across the lines early on, that's a significant advantage. If your nearest neutral centers are instead farther away from the primary lines, you will have to be very aware of timing, and make sure that you establish yourself on the far sides of them before your opponents close the gap. Many Powers also have to consider their builds carefully: too many early fleet builds can be problematic for a land-based power like Austria or Russia, but fleets can be crucial when it's time to push for the solo.
You should of course try to keep your eyes on the centers that form the frontier of each stalemate position: whenever a Power captures one of its breakthrough centers, it has accomplished an important strategic goal. Still, some centers deserve closer attention than others no matter what country you are:
Whenever you see units converging on one of these centers, beware! Unless they're yours, you may find yourself facing a stalemate position.
Each of the Great Powers is affected differently by the primary 17/17 stalemate lines, and you should take that into account when planning your grand strategy.
So the key point to consider for Austria is timing your push west into Italy and Germany. You generally won't be able to launch this westward thrust very early on, but you can't afford to leave it too late. The most important center for the Archduke to keep track of is Munich: a strong western land power will be able to defend it against Austrian attacks, so it's a good idea to grab it before France or Germany grows too large.
A successful Prime Minister will generally cross the eastern lines early on by taking Scandinavia: Norway is the country's most accessible neutral center. Since the Scandinavian provinces are all surrounded by sea areas, England may even be able to afford to leave Scandinavia until later on, focussing instead on getting across the more distant frontiers to the south. Either way, it is crucial for the PM to get fleets into the Mediterranean sooner rather than later: England necessarily concentrates a lot on naval power, and if stopped in the south before reaching Tunis the country may have a hard time convoying enough armies to the mainland to break through to Moscow or Vienna.
The majority of French victories follow the same pattern as those of England, though France's final configuration is likely to include Italian home centers. Still, the north-western part of the MSL and Tunis are the Republic's most likely targets. A strong France is able to wrest and hold Tunis from a weak Italy with ease; conflict over the Low Countries may lead to an early French invasion of Germany, crossing at least one of the eastern lines. The most important centers for France to watch appear to be the Scandinavian ones; establishing a firm foothold there lets France cross both eastern lines at once. These centers may be relatively far away, but a strong France that has already defeated England will likely have the naval power necessary to take them from a northern power lacking the fleets needed to establish the eastern stalemate positions.
Germany has plenty of options for crossing the primary lines: it has more flexibility in this regard than the other two western Powers. As long as the southern and eastern Powers are not in a position to enforce a stalemate, the Kaiser has little to worry about. So a strong Germany's best strategy to cross the primary lines seems to be diplomatic: as long as different powers are fighting in the Mediterranean and Balkans, they're unlikely to be able to stop a German push for the win.
The trick is in becoming large enough to be a threat to win in the first place. Italy has the fewest recorded wins of any Great Power; while that may be due to Italians being stopped at a stalemate line, I think it's because of the difficulty the country faces in expanding and securing its position before being invaded from either side. If Italy is able to do so, however, it may already have crossed the primary stalemate lines by the time it's ready to push for the solo.
However, this strength depends on maintaining a viable presence in the north. If Russia loses Scandinavia, the Tsar may have a hard time getting it back: and if St Petersburg falls, Russia's prospects become increasingly bleak. Unfortunately, as we've already noted, Scandinavia is particularly vulnerable to naval power — and Russia can ill afford to build many fleets early in the game. I've said before in another article that I don't think an early war in Scandinavia is often in the best interests of either England or Russia, and I still believe that: but from this analysis it's clear that there has to be a reckoning at some point. So a clever Tsar should make sure that by the time his victory is imminent, he's able to achieve and maintain the northern part of one of the eastern stalemate positions.
Similarly to England, Turkey must be primarily concerned with crossing the main stalemate line. The closest breakthrough center, St Petersburg, is difficult to take and hold from the south; a strong Sultan is probably better off setting his sights on the western Mediterranean or Munich. Crossing the western line requires a successful attack on Italy, and that should not be left too late: but it seems probable that this will happen in the natural course of Turkey's rise to dominance in most cases. It's really the main stalemate line that can be expected to cause Turkey the most headaches: the Sultan should make it a key element of his strategy to secure Munich or Marseilles at the earliest possible opportunity, or at least to get a fleet into the Mid-Atlantic.
When you know which centers your country needs to cross the primary stalemate lines, you can use this knowledge to guide your approach. If you're offered a chance to grab a crucial center and hold it early on, that can be well worth your while! If you can't obtain a breakthrough center right away, use diplomacy to keep the areas of interest in turmoil, or demilitarized. If you're thinking about stabbing your main ally, make sure that he won't be able to stymie your advance when you do: there's no point in stabbing him for the win if that will only lead to him solidifying a primary stalemate line against you.
Of course, your strategy should depend on diplomacy before anything else: just about any long-term alliance is possible with enough goodwill. An Italy strongly allied with Austria may aim to cross the eastern stalemate lines by storming Scandinavia rather than the Balkans; a Germany committed to an alliance with Russia may aim for Austrian and Italian centers instead of Scandinavia and Warsaw/Moscow.
It's also not the best idea to decide ahead of time exactly which supply centers you want to take. Success in Diplomacy requires that you be flexible enough to react to and take advantage of whatever happens in the game. Still, all else being equal, the geography of the board can provide some good indications of the best approach.
Stalemate lines are a crucial part of Diplomacy. By understanding them, you can gain an important advantage over your competition. In your next game, be sure to keep them in mind!
Charles Roburn (kindly_despot@yahoo.com) |
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