I have a problem with the Pouch. It is directly to blame for my most recent gaming disaster. The problem came about when a "stop-the-leader" campaign began, uniting the otherwise divided factions of England, France, Germany, and Austria against me (Russia) and Turkey.

There is nothing new about everyone banding together to take on a player who has expanded too fast too early (see Derek McLachlin's Wielding Too Much Power, in the Fall 1997 Movement issue).  But this particular stop-the-leader campaign succeeded in uniting the enemies because of the fear of the Juggernaut.

The Juggernaut

The legendary alliance of Turkey and Russia, creating an unstoppable power able to steamroll everyone else out of existence. More often than not it collapses amid backbiting between the two powers, but this is rarely remembered thanks to the mythology around the name. And how do most players - at least in e-mail dip - know about the Juggernaut? From the newsgroups and The Pouch, of course!

Had it been any other alliance, it is possible everyone would have ganged up to prevent a swift win. But stop-the-leader alliances almost never come together so early in the game, and rarely hold together against strong partners, particularly, as this game was set up, with broadcast-only press.

It is worth taking a step back to consider the wider lessons. The lore of the game is deep and goes beyond even the Pouch. I've used it myself many times, even warning of the threat of the Juggernaut. The key is to use the myths, not be controlled by them.

Many parts of the collective memories of Diplomacy players are based on "facts" gathered from tittle-tattle and articles on web sites and in Dip mags. These inbuilt biases and fears can be played on by the astute diplomat.

After the Juggernaut, the best example is the statistics drawn from thousands of games and regularly analysed in these pages. These stats are often pointed to by players in their negotiations; e.g. Austria and Italy should work together, because an early stab by either side tends (statistically) to lead to both sides' elimination. Similarly, Germany and Russia are held to be natural enemies.

These self-reinforcing beliefs are held by so many people that the iconoclast may have trouble breaking them. A past attempt by myself as Russia to build on early work with Germany, for example, failed (I later discovered) because the German player expected a stab purely because we were "natural" enemies.

I don't have a magic formula to offer on how to take advantage of the myths and half-truths surrounding the game. But in the past two years of playing online I've come across, and been taken in by, several of these. As a result I am not inclined to attempt to take a Russia-Turkey alliance into the mid-game now, because good odds could be had on a "stop the Juggernaut" alliance of everyone else quickly forming. I would certainly try to put one together if I faced an R-T deal, not because I feared being rolled flat, but because it would be relatively easy to do so.

What I've learned is simple: be aware of the reactions some of the strongest myths can produce, and be wary of anyone trying to use them in their Diplomacy. It may be that the legend is right in the case of your game; but think about it first.

There is one exception: if you get a message from me, it doesn't contain any myths, only plain facts.

  James Mackintosh
(james@mackie.demon.co.uk)