The following article deals with the strength and weaknesses of the nJudge standard classic Machiavelli scenario: “The Balance of Power” advanced game. The original article has been expanded with game and disaster/income statistics, drawn from articles by Neil Barr and Jon Ashman, and some additional playing tips. Some tips where also listed in part I of this series. As there are a lot fewer games of Machiavelli played than Dip the win/lose stats below for powers other than Venice, should be regarded more as indicative rather than pure gospel. There are eight powers at the start of a game of Machiavelli. Just as in standard Diplomacy, there are certain conflicts that appear natural, and occur in many games. In Machiavelli, however, the pairings are more obvious and less matched. Instead of everyone worrying about an RT alliance, they simply worry about Venice. For as long as there is no organized resistance, Venice can win any war against his choice of neighbor, sometimes two neighbors. Also unlike standard, it is possible to lose on the very first turn of the game if you make a critical error. This article seeks to explain enough of this type of Machiavelli lore so that a new player can get through the opening phases of the game in one piece, and without accidentally creating a monster in the process. This knowledge parallels to concepts and situations in standard Diplomacy, like knowing that A/I make good allies, there are always exceptions of course, but there is also the generally accepted base of knowledge. One way to think of the Machiavelli powers is as a set of four groups of two. Generally, there is significant conflict between the two powers in each group, although when differences are put aside each pair can act as a strong team. Indeed, it is the very strength available to that consolidated position that makes absorption of the other part of each group so tempting, and war so likely. Of course, there is much more to one's opening than this, but before one learns to multiply, one learns to add. Before one learns how to conquer Florence with Turkey, one needs to know how to do it with the Papacy. Naples and Turkey Let’s begin by looking at the Naples and Turkey pair. Together these two powers control half the fleets on the board at the start, and generally build more as quickly as possible. Barring outside intervention, the fight between these two powers is fairly balanced. Often it will come down to the relative tactical skills of the powers; sometimes a famine in a key city will give one power or the other the edge. Alliance is made difficult by the division of the Turkish home area to two corners of the board, making guarding against a stab sometimes troublesome. If you're playing Turkey, watch out for famine or plague in Tunis — you can lose your most lucrative city quickly if you only have one unit in the west and it gets killed there. Since Turkish units can't go anywhere else without going by Neapolitan home cities, Naples also worries about a Turkish stab. Just don't leave yourself too open, and be careful not to use your borrowing too early. On alluring early stab for Naples is the disband or outright buy of the Turkish Tunis fleet. While looking as a great proposition to gain an additional three ducats and getting a free back it will usually end up making both of the powers lame ducks. Naples will be toiling under the debt and war against a very very angry Tunis, and Tunis has to try to fend off Naples without falling into the trap of also taking a big loan to buy Tunis back or get some Neapolitan center. While both powers have good long term chances if played carefully, getting too badly hurt in the early war can leave you vulnerable to players from other areas like Venice, France, or the Papacy. In fact, France can be invited in as kingmaker and take the kingdom if the battle is ugly enough and he has time to bring up enough force. A good alliance with Naples will on the other hand open up for a Turkish-Austrian alliance against Venice as described below. Disasters and cashflow One nice early advantage for Turkey is the province of Ragusa that never can be struck by plague as it is excluded from the plague disaster roll. The downside is Tunis that has on average a once every five years chance of getting plague. Actually the highest risk of all provinces. Albania, Messina and Naples have a slightly increased risk. Naples best source of cash are its home provinces (13d). The variable income is even less than Austria’s – on average 2.5 ducats per year and never more than 4. Turkey is better off as it averages 3.5 ducats/year variable, and a 17% chance of getting 6. And home provinces, including Ragusa, gains it 11. Winning and losing As you may have gathered Naples and Turkey are not great solo powers, but they are good survival candidates and are eliminated less often than Milan, Papacy, Florence and Austria in longer games. Milan and France The second pair is Milan and France. These are the awkward couple. They may appear not to be as likely to fight each other early on — if you're playing France you definitely want to convince Milan that this is so! – but later in the game France may have no other option than to expand far east… There is a rich clump of neutral supply centers between France and Milan, including the pseudo-nation of Genoa, which has a variable income attached to it. France starts weak but can grow explosively from his corner position using those centers. Often France can secure Savoy and/or Turin, and later take Saluzzo at its leisure. Genoa is a trickier proposition as both Florence and Milan (often Milan) would like to grab it. It is often better for France to go for the neutral provinces mentioned above and leave the work of laying siege to Genoa to some other power. And then drive in when the time is right. From Milan's point of view, the key here is to convince France that the sea is the way to go. A joint assault on Austria may appear tempting, but it just increases your long term vulnerability unless you have such a combination of luck and skill as to get the entire Austrian home area for yourself — and even then you may be in trouble. If France gets the whole clump of neutral centers while you're taking Austria, France may still outclass you, especially as Milan will have a long border to defend against its powerful neighbor Venice. So get France to go to sea, and make sure that Montferrat is yours and that you cover your french border adequately. France can do well at sea, and needs to maintain a sea presence as a screen if nothing else, so this is not an unreasonable thing to ask of him. Milan should also try to let some other player do the work of besieging or buying off Genoa, but if Venice and Austria are engaged south and east, it may be worth an early attempt. Regardless of the chosen path, any Milanese attempt to buy or disband Genoa will draw the attention to itself, and also hobble it with having to repay a big debt. Milan should always be careful to not let Milan city be undefendable. Disasters and cashflow Both Milan and France are at increased risk of plague in Milan, Cremona and Avignon. And both powers need to always consider the risk of losing either of those cities to an enemy or opportunistic ally. France has fairly good variable income averaging 3.5d/year and a 17% chance of getting 6. Province income is low, but if it manages to grab Turin, Saluzzo and Savoy it will net 13d. Milan has the same average variable, but can never get more than 5d. It’s home provinces will gain it 12 and with Montferrat 14. Winning and losing Surprisingly France is a good survivor in longer games and actually a potential winner of shorter games, due to the closeness to many valuable neutral provinces. Milan does, on the other hand, share the elimination top half with Papacy, Florence and Austria, due to constantly being at war with any or all of France, Venice, Austria, Florence and Papacy. Diplomacy and very cautious use of money are really the key to Milanese success. Venice and Austria This looks like a massive mismatch in strength. And it is. Austria as David can sometimes hit Goliath, but really, Austria needs to enlist help from the outside or end up a frightened flunky. Milan is a natural ally for Austria, and may be willing to send help out of self-interest. After all, Milan's worst nightmare is to have a large border with a Venice who has absorbed Austria. Turkey is another possibility — that army in Albania can cause Venice fits, and if Turkey isn't in a death match with Naples he can profit a lot from damaging Venice. He certainly doesn't want Austria to get swallowed. The Papacy can be a big help as well in tying up Venetian forces, but is slower to cause real damage to Venice in most cases. His fleet in Ancona can limit Venetian logistical options at the beginning by bouncing in UAS a while, and he'll usually do this for his own defensive reasons. No one wants Venice too close to them. But the Pope has a lot of trouble taking more than Ferrara from Venice (who usually secures Ferrara at the start). Venice, of course, wants to be on good relations with as many neighbors as possible, while eating the others. If the other players allow it, Austria makes an excellent target, providing Venice with a corner from which to work, with an excellent position for an assault on Milan if he chooses, with security for some neutrals, and with an excuse to build up forces. Venice can't be killed ever if he is careful, since his capital only borders one sea zone, and a garrison there cannot be defeated by conventional means, while requiring twice as much as a normal unit to disband (24d). And if Venice has an elite professional garrison at home, he isn't going to be destroyed until the game is basically over anyway as it would cost 48d to disband or 36d to convert to autonomous. Of course, sometimes Venice will choose to be less than careful for a little while for the purposes of saving money, but if he has time he can always withdraw to the isle and live there comfortably off his variable rolls. Thus the primary goal for any other player should also be to put a garrison in an empty Venice city. That because no besieging army can enter Venice. That way Venice will be forced to use a costly bribe to regain Venice city or hope for a famine or plague doing the job for him. Another, even more effective option, if all other players can agree to keep out of Venice city, is to put a rebellion directed against Venice in it. That way Venice will not be able put down the rebellion and neither famine nor plague can remove it. Problem is it is easier said than done in an adjacency game (as is the default). Do notice that the above applies both to Classic and 2nd Edition Machiavelli, as the Venice Sea Area, in the latter case, is only treated as a province for control and unit placement purposes (never for movement and conflict). Of course, it is possible VA will make peace, and in this case, Austria should insist on at least two of the neutrals available (Trent, Croatia, Carniola). Sure, Milan has some claim to Trent, but compared to his other concerns it's usually in his best interest to back Austria's claim. Even if at peace with Venice, I don't think Austria should attack Milan — in this case the general wisdom from standard Diplomacy about AI wars applies. In fact, there's not much for Austria to do in this case except keep an eye open for a good chance to invade France or send a risky expedition down to Turkey. The latter is likely to do more harm than good most of the time, unless an NT alliance is in evidence. One reason an AI alliance is so hard to keep running is Tyrolea and Milan city being adjacent, and that Austria benefits very little from this. Sure Milan may have offered France to Austria, but it is not in Milanese, nor Venetian interest to let Austria gain a second home country. So after Austria has weakened France enough to serve it up to Milan (assuming Milan is still thriving), Venice and Milan split the northern half of the map. One reason Austria may be interested of risking this is that it can slip out from Venice’s grasp by rebasing in France. So it may be worth to chance that either or both of Milan and Venice will be too busy to stab Austria when it grabs France. Disasters and cashflow Austria, Carinthia, Venice, Padua and Dalmatia are the increased plague risk areas in the area. While Venice can survive repeated plagues without problems, it can be devastating for Austria. Austria is not worse off with its 2.8 average yearly variable, but it’s home province income of 7 (8 if Slavonia is included) leaves it strapped for cash. Venice on the other hand is the Randolph Hearst of the game. It is guaranteed 6-10 ducats per year 86% of the time, with a mean of 7. In addition to that it’s home provinces generate a revenue of 16 ducats. And as all the bordering neutral provinces generate 2 ducats, Venice usually ends up gaining at least 26 ducats after the first year. Venice city in itself can generate 4d plus variable, and thus maintain an elite unit indefinitely. Do notice that the average variable income makes Venice almost certain he can maintain 2-4 units if he controls two supply centers (provinces with cities). This scenario would yield 7 ducats income in the worst case and 11 on average. Winning and losing As you have understood by the above Venice is the way to go if you want a really really good chance to win or solo, while Austria in most cases is a sure way to elimination — unless you are a skilled diplomat and alliance builder. The Pope and Florence Now for the most bloody pair: PL. If there is one standard opening, you really need to know, it is the First Turn Florence Kill — just as every good Diplomacy player should know the Lepanto. If you're playing one of PL, you need to know it much better than that. Here it is, minus the loans (since this will depend on starting cash): e1 : 18d [or more] Buy Army Florence e2 : 12d [or more] Disband Army Arezzov Perugia - Arezzo Florence - Pisa (as Florence usually does PISA-EGOL) Bologna - Pistoia This does not only kill Florence if he moves out of Pisa, but also gives the Pope control of the home area since it takes Pistoia as well. Sure, the Pope sacrifices a lot of leverage over Ferrara/Mantua, but who cares? He instantly jumps ahead of even Venice in income. The Papacy would in this case get 2 more rolls for variable income, 9d for Florence’s cities and provinces and most likely some or all of Siena, Lucca and Piombino within year’s end. Thus ensuring a grand total of 15-20 ducats by spring depending on rolls and famines, which makes the two loans repayable if no other power attacks. Yeah sure… Can you say "Early Leader Syndrome"? Well, absolutely, but only if the board remains in a position to respond. Any player letting the Papacy repay his loans would be, well, unwise. But if the Pope lays the proper diplomatic groundwork, and the rest of the board hope PV will go to war and leave them to their wars and schemes, he may hold off the reaction long enough to pay the debt, as Venice is not in a position to be able to immediately and effectively respond. Of course, if Florence knows what is up — or rather regardless if he knows what’s up — he should take precautions. Such as the oft-ignored Pisa Hold order (which of course means giving up any early claim to Genoa). Or the more expensive large counter bribe of Florence or Arezzo. Florence has the advantage of a compact and wealthy nation — if the Pope tries the knockout and fails, the Pope is in very deep trouble. Florence can use some money to regain some lost territory and remove the Pope's means to pay the crushing debt. Because of this, trying for the knockout is as dangerous a move as that of Florence ignoring the risk. And a good Florence always suspects something. So the Pope and Florence will usually talk to each other friendly for a while, take precautions, and then one will jump on the other if they perceive a weakness. Sometimes they even manage to work together in the classical Back-to-Back opening. Usually this involves the Pope focusing south-east and working with any of Milan, Austrian and Turkey to check Venetian growth, while Florence works to rule the seas and focus on the north-west. The four neutrals between them and Milan are usually divided equally. If they resist the temptation to fight long enough, the strategic importance of the units that the other is deploying actually decreases the chance of a stab. Since PL are in the middle, such units sometimes hold the balance of power; and since a PL alliance generally tends to provide a balance of power, this means that the pair can reach a point where even the ability to quickly swallow the other is unimportant since such an attack would help someone else more than it would help the person doing the swallowing. What moves should the Papacy watch out for? Well, to not let Florence be able to do this (the Rome Gambit): e1 : 18d [or more] Buy Army Perugia Arezzo – Perugia Perugia - Rome Florence - Bologna Disasters and cashflow Practically all Florentine and Papal provinces are at high risk of plague. Florence has a pretty good variable, ensuring him 6-10 ducats 61% of the time and a mean income of 6. As it usually grabs Piombino and Sienna within the first year it’s province income is 13d. Papal variable income averages3.8d/year and a 17% chance of getting 6. Home province income is 13d. Winning and losing As you have understood by the above the Pope and Florence are not easy to play, nor survive or win with. They do actually join the august ranks of being at the bottom with Austria in longer games, because of the difficulties of trust between the two. That said they make formidable allies. Outside Your Area So what should you do outside your own area? Well, everyone but Venice and perhaps France would prefer that Venice is contained. You might want to spend a little time diplomatically trying to encourage this. Remember: Venice can't be hurt too much at the start of the game. You want to make some friends everywhere, so do a lot of talking. Look for the powers who can most help you with your own situation. For example, France and Florence can swing the balance in a tough NT war. Florence and the Pope can both be players in the Genoa game if they make it a priority in their opening. Generally, it is in your interest to develop slowly except where you are making gains, so keep that in mind. Don't neglect to consider the possibility that one or more pairs may put aside their problems — make the proper contingency plans to so that you can form a large alliance against a group that comes after you, and be willing to join a group to help a friend. Pay attention to how things develop at sea, and don't use up your money too quickly. Considerations for the Basic game As there is no money and no disasters in the Basic game general tactics and strategy are the same as in Diplomacy. The main difference is that Venice’s economical advantage is eliminated. Considerations for Machiavelli 2 There are no major tactical and strategical differences between Classic and 2nd edition Machiavelli Basic and Advanced games. Where the two editions differ is in the optional rules. Disaster frequencies are different and then there is the interesting “Strategic movement” rule (not implemented on the nJudges) that allows a player to move two units (any combination of fleets and armies) an unlimited number of contiguous friendly controlled areas. A fleet unit not using strategic movement may convoy. Money! What should you do with your hard earned cash apart from maintaining troops? Well in the 5th and 7th articles of this series we will be talking about the bank, basic financial strategy, and how to avoid premature assassination. We'll also talk about how to bend the odds in your favor if you know you will default on your loan. Bruce Duewer (beduewer@gmail.com) or Sergio Lidsell (sigge@lidsell.com) If you wish to e-mail feedback on this article to the author, and clicking on the envelope above does not work for you, feel free to use the "Dear DP..." mail interface.