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Russia: Bot-Swe; StP-Nwy
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-5 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: -6	-162
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	-6 +1 0 0 0 0 Total: -5	-15
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	+4 +1 0 0 0 0 Total: +5	+150
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Possible English enemy + Probable German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 0	0
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Possible English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	0 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: +2	+1
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Possible English enemy + Possible German ally Unowned Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	+4 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: +6	+30
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-5 0 0 0 0 0 Total: -5	-67½
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	-6 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: -4	-6
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German ally Unowned Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	+4 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: +6	+90
Total:		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	+20½

Russia: Bot-Swe; StP-Fin
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Probable English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	-4 -1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -2	-54
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Probable English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	-5 +1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -1	-3
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Probable English enemy + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	+4 +1 0 +3 0 0 Total: +8	+240
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Possible English ally + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	+5 0 0 +3 0 0 Total: +8	+36
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Possible English ally + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	+5 +2 0 +3 0 0 Total: +10	+5
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Possible English ally + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	-1 +2 0 +3 0 0 Total: +4	+20
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	-5 -1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -3	-40½
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	-6 +1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -2	-3
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden Mutual defensive coherence (Fin/Swe) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	4 +1 0 +3 0 0 Total: +8	+120
		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	+320½

Russia: Bot-Swe; StP hold
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Possible English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: -1	-27
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Possible English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	0 +1 0 0 0 0 Total: +1	+3
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Possible English enemy + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	+4 +1 0 0 0 0 Total: +5	+150
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Probable English ally + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	+5 0 0 0 0 0 Total: +5	+22½
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Probable English ally + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	+5 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: +7	+3½
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Probable English ally + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Secure home centre	-1 +2 0 0 0 0 Total: +1	+5
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Probable English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Vulnerable home centre if Barents' variety	-4 -1 0 0 0 -2 Total: -7	-94½
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Probable English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Vulnerable home centre if Barents' variety	-5 +1 0 0 0 -2 Total: -6	-9
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Probable English enemy + Possible German ally English Norway + Russian Sweden No defensive coherence (Swe/StP) One potential target One unit moves Vulnerable home centre if Barents' variety	+4 +1 0 0 0 -2 Total: +3	+45
		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	+98½

Russia: Bot-Bal; StP-Nwy
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	-6 0 -2 0 0 0 Total: -8	-216
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-6 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: -7	-21
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	-5 -1 -2 0 0 0 Total: -8	-240
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Possible English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	0 +1 -2 0 0 0 Total: -1	-4½
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Possible English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 0	0
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Possible English enemy + Possible German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	0 0 -2 0 0 0 Total: -2	-10
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	-6 +1 -2 0 0 0 Total: -7	-94½
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-6 0 0 0 0 0 Total: -6	-9
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/StP) No offensive targets One unit moves Secure home centre	0 0 -2 0 0 0 Total: -2	-30
		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	-625

Russia: Bot-Bal; StP-Fin
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Probable English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	-5 0 -4 +3 0 0 Total: -6	-162
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Probable English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	-5 -1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -3	-9
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Probable English enemy + Possible German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	0 -1 -2 +3 0 0 Total: 0	0
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Possible English ally + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	+5 0 -4 +3 0 0 Total: +4	+18
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Possible English ally + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	+5 -1 0 +3 0 0 Total: +7	+3½
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Possible English ally + Possible German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	+5 -1 -2 +3 0 0 Total: +5	+25
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + German Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	-6 0 -4 +3 0 0 Total: -7	-94½
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Near-certain German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/Fin) Two potential targets One unit moves Vulnerable home centre	-6 -1 0 +3 0 0 Total: -4	-6
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden No defensive coherence (Bal/Fin) Two potential targets Both units move Vulnerable home centre	0 -1 -2 +3 0 0 Total: 0	0
		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	-225

Russia: Bot hold; StP-Nwy
England	Germany	Probability	Outcome		Expected Outcome
Supported attack (60%)	Sweden (45%)	27 %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German enemy English Norway + German Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: -1	-27
Supported attack (60%)	Baltic (5%)	3 %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German enemy English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-5 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: -6	-18
Supported attack (60%)	Neither (50%)	30 %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German ally English Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	+4 -1 0 0 0 0 Total: +3	+90
UnSupported attack (10%)	Sweden (45%)	4½ %	Possible English enemy + Possible German enemy Unowned Norway + German Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 0	0
UnSupported attack (10%)	Baltic (5%)	½ %	Possible English enemy + Probable German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 0	0
UnSupported attack (10%)	Neither (50%)	5 %	Possible English enemy + Probable German ally Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	+4 0 0 0 0 0 Total: +4	+20
Full-frontal (30%)	Sweden (45%)	13½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Possible German enemy Unowned Norway + German Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 0	0
Full-frontal (30%)	Baltic (5%)	1½ %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German enemy Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	-5 0 0 0 0 0 Total: -5	-7½
Full-frontal (30%)	Neither (50%)	15 %	Near-certain English enemy + Probable German ally Unowned Norway + Unowned Sweden One-way defensive coherence (Bot/StP) No offensive targets No units move Secure home centre	+4 0 0 0 0 0 Total: +4	+60
		100 %		FINAL TOTAL:	+117½

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