| Game: | TROI, USTO Judge. |
| Variant: | Crowded, Gunboat, NoPress. |
| Outcome: | T win in 1917. |
| Power: | Turkey. |
I won Troi through deceptions. Usually unintended deception.
When I joined Troi, I still held my old 'gang-up' view of NoPress games. The idea is that in a NoPress game, whenever someone is in troubles, all his neighbors will gang-up on him to each get their cut. Proper play, the theory then implies, is to try very hard to avoid being the victim - through conservative orders - and to join the gang-up orgies early and often. My first choice for power, Turkey, reflected that viewpoint. Turkey is well positioned to play conservatively - and join a gang-up on Balkan or Russia. As long as BR don't both decide to gang up on me. The good news was that I got Turkey. The bad news was that Spring 01 orders distinctly showed BR are ganging up on me.
The bad news evaporated quickly. Austria took SER from Balkan - leaving the latter crippled. Russia covered SEV, which precluded a build there. And, most importantly, Balkan switched sides and was now supporting me against Russia. In Spring 1901 I gave two alliance-suggesting supports to Balkan. My message was heard, and Balkan was now with me. 1902 was a good year. With flawless coordination - rather amazing for a NoPress game - Balkan helped me through the needed combinations to take SEV from Russia. I got a build, I had domination of the Black Sea waters, I was in business.
Full of feelings of gratefulness to the skillful help Balkan gave me I looked hard for a way to help him back. His problem was that Austrian army in his SER home center. He couldn't dislodge it with two of his three units fleets. I figured that the way to help him is by surprising everyone by destroying his RUM fleet - no one would expect it after such fruitful cooperation between the two of us - and then surprise everyone again by pulling out of RUM in the Fall despite an ability to hold it. Balkan would then be able to build an army in RUM, and retake SER himself. Still, I somehow had to tell Balkan that this is no stab. I therefore built a fleet in SMY - although I would have rather had an army. Fleets can be used as "broadcasting" units because of their ability to order convoys - even illegal ones. I used that fleet to tell Balkan I'm still with him in Spring 1903 - even as I was destroying his RUM fleet. A rather loud message given the heavy price I paid to be able to transmit it - not moving the fleet out of port in the Spring. If I really wanted to stab Balkan, would I not have also moved SMY-AEG?
Russia's actions in the Spring of 1903 changed my plan around. That Russia would never guess my move, and therefore counter-act inappropriately, was to be expected - my attack on RUM was meant as a surprise move. His decision to move to GAL - opening a 4th front - given that BTN(E?) are already his known enemies - was entirely a surprise. With Austria under attack, and no longer in a position to be the prime beneficiary of myself stabbing Balkan, the position needed re-evaluation. Stabbing Balkan was now quite attractive. Well, in Fall 1903 I just continued merrily along and also took BUL from Balkan. Poor Balkan, with his sharply tuned skills and commendable loyalty, he made exactly the accurate moves that would have worked under the original plan. He read my Spring orders so flawlessly. He is exactly the kind of ally I love to have in a NoPress game - one who can coordinate so well it is as if we had exchanged partial press every turn. I took advantage of him so shamelessly. Even down to one unit, he didn't (as I was expecting) madly suicide with it trying to harm me. Instead, he played for maximum survival by seeking a haven in undefended Italy. Indeed he survived until 1906 - right when the endgame was approaching. My hat off to Balkan for skill and sportsmanship.
Other events in 1903 were also exciting. Perhaps the Russian spring 1902 move to GAL - with it's great influence on my decision to get aggressive - was a foreshadow of the chaos of the Fall. In the Fall, as I reduced Balkan to one center, Austria and Italy attacked each other, and Russia took a center from Austria. An all out Balkan war was in full swing.
In my own thinking during the period that followed, I referd to the 1904-1908 period as the "Marshmallow years", and to the BARI powers as the "Marshmallow powers". The Marshmallow powers were more concerned with fighting each other - with ever diminishing forces - as I was plowing, unopposed, right through all of them. I didn't even pretend to be taking them out one at the time. I just plowed through all of them at once. Between them they were sizeable, and could have stopped me. However, each was too small to defend anything - and they were cutting each other's supports and retreat spaces. Only Russia - the largest of the Marshmallows - gave some resistance. However, by the time he did, it was too late - and he was small and all alone. I took out all the Marshmallow powers - although Spain managed to get most of Italy, and lock (but not 100%) the position, before I got there.
The endgame has begun. It was now time to look for a victory. The Western part of the board was reduced to ELS. The Eastern was under my control. While Lowland and Spain were distracted with their efforts to eliminate England - who was putting up a gritty and valiant defense - I managed to secure the Italian boot, all of Russia - to the German border, and even StP. In 1910, ELS finally united against me, just as I reached 17 centers.
Getting the 18th center was going to prove a mighty task. ELS had a stalemate line to keep me from winning. Lowland, which has previously demonstrated his familiarity with stalemate line and overall tactical skill, clearly knew it. England seems to have grasped enough for his front. Spain proved the weak link. He was sitting on a stalemate line but not submitting the stalemate orders. Already in 1908-9 I had two chances to take TUN, and win. I missguessed in both cases. At least the 1908-9 chances were legitimately mine. I had a true 50% in each. In 1912, I was given a chance through mis-defense. I didn't guess correctly. Clearly Spain doesn't know how to hold a stalemate line. I was frantic. I knew that my StP holdings can never be defended indefinitely from the East. Eventually it will be taken from me, and then TUN won't be enough to win. It took some time for that to happen. England and Lowland had to get fleets in position, coordinate their orders - which takes time in a NoPress game, destroy my FIN unit, and then repeat the process for StP. It took until 1913 before I lost StP. Spain by then figured out the stalemate orders. I wasn't even going to get TUN. I was down to 16 centers and fully stopped on a stalemate line. I wasn't going to win on my own.
I tried for a while to order supports for a potential EL stab of S. They probably could have executed it without letting me get more than one center (TUN), but I can't blame them for not risking it. To help encourage such a reduction in the game I began, in 1914, the Great Retreat. I completely pulled out of my forward positions in Russia. I even pulled out of WAR+MOS and invited EL (with illegal convoys and supports) to take them. Only on the Spanish border did I keep the pressure unrelenting. Hopefully with myself down to 14 centers, EL won't be so reluctant to stab Spain. My minimal objective was to have EL execute a clean stab of Spain and reduce the game to 3 powers. I might then try to get one of them to stab the other for a further reduction. Since a 2-way draw is difficult - given the odd number of centers in this variant - this would have to either be a swindle, or exchange 50-50 chances of victory with E or L. My maximal hope was that there would be a chaotic stab, and I would be able to march back, retake my sacrificed centers, and on to victory.
Spring 1915 showed that my offerings were being accepted. Both England and Lowland positioned themselves to share in the loot. Fall 1915 gave me my maximal hope: a chaotic stab. England, as scripted, stabbed Spain. He did it poorly - taking one center when he should have taken two. That wouldn't have been so bad had it not been for Lowland. Against the script, and a suicidal strategic move if I've seen one - espcially as I have rated Lowland as a very skilled tactical player - Lowland stabbed *England* all out. So hard did he stab him, that he didn't even have enough units left to take all my offerings.
Spain's disband of TUN signaled that he is now more interested in avenging England than in stopping me.
In 1916, I executed my Betray the Betrayer policy. I surged right back, after years of staying back and doing nothing offensive. I even guessed, correctly, that after many years of never leaving a supply center undefended, Lowland would risk MUN. Lowland, thinking that I'm giving him the "promised" quiet to take England out, (If any "quiet" has been promised, it was to take out SPAIN, not England. In any event, my promises aren't worth the bandwidth they are written on if I have a shot at victory) didn't confront my return onslaught. I took TUN+MUN and prevented Lowland from taking the MOS "offering". I was back to 17 centers, but this time there was no opposition stalemate line. This time there was no opposition unity. This time I had a high probability of victory with any of a number of possible orders.
But I wasn't quite content. I had a better than 75% chance of victory in the early 1910's, and - for the life of me - I couldn't guess right. I didn't want to play again for 75% probability of victory (which was easy to engineer). I didn't even want to play for 87.5% (which was harder to engineer, but I still managed to do it). I wanted a FORCED win. One which would be mine no matter what. for an entire weekend, the problem bothered me. I was trying out one combination after another in my head. Ruling out one branch of the decision tree after another. What concerned me most was a convoy to LVN. I kept telling myself that Lowland has so few armies, and the key battles are all inland, that there must be a way for me to overwork his armies. I finally quantified that in F17M Lowland must use 3 armies to force a WAR/MOS guess, 3 to defend MUN, and 1 to cut MAR; but that he has only 6. It wasn't until I finally sat down and set up the position that I found that even then I could force a win in the Fall. Remarkably, the spring orders for that Forced win-in-two sequence were exactly the very first set of orders I considered. I was rather amazed at the actual solution since the entire front is coupled: The orders to NAF and the ones to MOS are all indispensable parts of the solution, and directly influenced each other! Actually, there is a minor flaw in the solution; but it is incredibly unlikely (in a NoPress game especially) that the counterorders happen. England must order YOR-NTH-HEL-KIE, and Lowland must order the convoy with his two fleets.
The minor flow didn't materialize, there wasn't even a convoy to LVN as I so feared. I won in 1917.
As a whole, TROI proved a most fascinating game. It is the first start-to-end NoPress game which I've won. Breaking through the stalemate proved a gruelling task, but so much more I value it's accomplishment.
Austria, Italy: Your senseless war just allowed myself and Spain (and for a short time Russia too) to get the best of you. I just plowed in, and nobody resisted.
Russia: Your decision to attack Austria in 1902 gave me my big break. Afterward, your resistance to me proved too little, and way too late. At least you showed some resistance. The other Marshmallows didn't.
Germany, France, Norway: You died before entering my horizon. No comments.
Lowland: Of E/L/S, I pegged you as the most skilled. You clearly knew where the stalemate lines were. When I expelled you from Russia, you went right back to the five-points German wall. Your move into SWE was also incredibly timely. The only thing I couldn't understand was the 1915 stab of England. Surely you weren't going to suggest a two-way draw in a variant with an odd number of centers. And if the reduction was to three-way, then why eliminate the larger and better defended England when Spain is so much easier? The only explanation is if you were trying to swindle me into letting you win. Surely you didn't think I'd let you do that! Surely I didn't come across as such a bad player. Well, wait a minute, maybe I did. During the many seasons when I was holding back and trying to encourage an E/L stab of Spain, I sometime submitted misorders and other nonsense (like cutting my own uncuttable supports). There was so little action in those years that I sometimes submitted orders without setting the board up - and even then without much thought. Maybe I got you thinking I'm careless (which at that time period I could afford to be). If so, call it another unintended deception that worked.
England: Your game was good as well. The way you defended against S/L was inspired. That you know to stop fighting and start coordinating was admirable. That you also realized that allowing Lowland into your SWE was vital is noticeable. Good game.
Spain: I pegged you as the weak link of ELS. You made many substandard moves. Also, after the fatefull events of 1915, I think you should have faced me - figuring that the stabbed England isn't going to pursue his stab of yourself vigorously (or at all!).
All in all, most players played a good game.
Finally, I would like to thank those who made the game possible. I would like to thank Jen for Mastering this game, and Mike for taking over GMship when Jen became unavailable, and for keeping the USTO judge for all of us. Lastly, I would like to also thank the players, observers, and anyone else who helped making this game what it was.
Dan Shoham
Side note: I've written the EoG before the final turn executed (actually, even before S17M executed). I try to write EoG's (especially where I evaluate the performance of my opponents) before I find out who they are and before I read other's EoGs so as to not allow any prior opinions about my opponents to be a factor in the EoG.
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