 The 25th of April Bridge and the Cristo Rei Statue (far right). Let’s face it, Portugal is pretty boring really. Not the place itself I mean: I have been living here for the past seven years and have enjoyed the warm hospitality and the climate. No, I mean by this statement, the region on the Diplomacy board. Portugal has a lot of things that limit its interest. It is the only space on the board that borders only two other spaces (Mid Atlantic Ocean and Spain). It is almost always France’s first port of call in the initial capture of unassigned neutrals and many countries can realistically exect never to get there. However, I think not all is lost and the country does have some things to offer. It is a key province on several stalemate lines. And, together with Spain, a prime target for powers that wish to attack France (normally, but not always, England or Italy) either directly, or indirectly, by forcing France to ignore other spaces such as Mid Atlantic Ocean or Spain for its defence. It can however, also be a fatal detriment for a power who all too often can see their last unit either holed up in Portugal, awaiting final destruction, or destroyed over it, with no retreats. Perhaps reflecting its seafaring nature, Portugal is better suited to fleets, for which it has several exits, rather than for armies, which can only go to Spain. As such, it is rare for armies other than France to visit its shores. Some openings try to counter Portugal's aversion to armies, such as the Lisbon Leapfrog, with varying degrees of success. However, casting aside words for a moment, let's see what we can glean from the statistics about the country. Analysing some 3000 game summaries (of all press variants) from 2000, 2001 and 2002 we can see how certain questions are answered statstically. Portugal is a natural neutral for France, so all the questions I have posed are asked in that light.
Anecdotally, I know that I would say that Portugal is occupied the great majority of times in 1901, and only rarely is it left unoccupied. If so, certainly France ill then make all endeavours to take it in 1902. Here are the results:
Suprisingly, Portugal is unowned a significant percentage of the time, much greater than I would have first thought. More obviously, it is not a country to stay unowned long, as the following years show. A suprisingly high percentage of games show Portugal already sucumbing to non-Franch ownership in 1902, and this percentage gradually increases, presumably for all those French rulers who see their empire beginning to crumble to dust under the onslaught.
I confess to having only a vague idea on this point before doing the analysis. Not taking Portugal early might be a negative factor to France's plans, but counter-balanced by the idea of a smooth growth being better than a rapid one (i.e. Early Leader Syndrome). In this study, I show only games where Portugal is initially occupied by France: when another country takes Portugal first, I think it's pretty clear that France's chances for a non-loss result are immediately diminshed. The following table shows the results for France, when it owns Portugal in each of the specified years.
The "Total" column represents the percentage of the total games that each row represents. The values start off incredibly fixed, and then start to alter in 1904, with the chances of winning and drawing improving, and those of losing decrease. I think that this corresponds to the declining total percantage figure, which means that more and more French players are losing Portugal. Those that hang onto Portugal longer are more likely to build a winnable or drawable position from it.
This table is similar to the previous one, but shows France's game result for each year that Portugal is unoccupied.
Interestingly, this seems to show France with inferior prospects should Portugal not be occupied immediately in 1901. One can imagine reasons for the blip in 1903 which shows Portugal's chances radically increasing. Although the numbers of games involved (less than 50) is very small, perhaps one can imagine that, for a France to be able to conquer Portugal in 1903, it may well be because he has had sufficient gains elsewhere (Spain, Belgium etc.) such that the draw prospects at least are not greatly affected. Perhaps there are other things that could be investigated with statistics, such as how often Portugal is likely to change hands during a game, or (with more difficulty) how often is it occupied. However, I feel that these would be mere curiosities, that would not add significantly to the player's understanding of this space. What this study to me does point out however, is that, whilest ownership of Portugal by no means guarentees France's success, postponed ownership certainly seems to reduce the chances of a favorable win. Of course, each game is different, and ownership of Portugal in 1901 will not help you if you have Italy in Marseilles and England in Brest! In conclusion, Portugal is often a space that is neglected in standard Diplomacy for some of the reasons mentioned above. To France however, it is a space of some importance, which should be gained as soon as convenient and not thrown away lightly. Like thirty-three other spaces on the board, it is a supply center that confers a valuable build to its owner, and thus cannot (or at least should not) be ignored. I hope that this article at least shows that it does have its part to play in the game, and that it can be better appreciated in the future. . . . . . . . . .I regard the DipPouch as a fantastic resource for the hobby, and an unbeatable way to both introduce new members and inform the existing ones. Manus Hand has, in my opinion, made an unquestionably significant effort in establishing the site, as well as his other contributes to the hobby (such as the DPjudge). It was an honor for me to be able to partially repay this contribution by taking on some of his responsibilites for DipPouch maintenance at the end of last year, and I hope that he enjoys reading this and the other articles in the series. I now only remain with the hope that someday we shall meet in person so that I can finally know one of the leading lights of Diplomacy.
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