Eye of the Storm

A Study of the Centrifuge in the Game 'chaos2'

Clinton Wolf

A long time ago, in a Zine issue far, far away, I published a new opening for the nation of Germany in Diplomacy. At the end of that article I promised a follow-up detailing the actual gunboat game where I soloed using it, then proceeded to go horribly delinquent. I finished most of the article text and formatting by last Fall, lacking only a preface and conclusion. Then I got involved in the World E-mail Masters Tournament where I figured I should put my money where my mouth was and attempt the opening in a standard format game.And because of that, I was afraid to publish anything further until it ended.Ah yes, the paradox of wanting the fame and recognition of your efforts, but afraid the look into your psyche shall be used against you.

Enough of excuses and cowardice, says I! The promise shall be fulfilled at long last. But first, some credits and disclaimers.

• Thanks to the 'Realpolitik' program for all maps. Each movement and adjustment season is hyperlinked to a visual of the results.

• I have no idea whether or not some players might have been female in this game, since it was Gunboat and I didn't bother to follow up after. I therefore use masculine pronouns exclusively, which is probably a good guess since so few women seem to grace the hobby (more's the pity!).

• I am an opinionated bastard. I am fully aware that one or more of the players involved may end up reading this (I know Russia's player contacted me awhile back and was interested to see things), but that hasn't stopped me from expressing a fully subjective and occasionally quite tactless take on events. Having been on the receiving end of broadsides I know it can be not fun, so forgiveness is begged in advance. One of the great problems was that no one involved really bothered with an EOG-- a practice that is quite the plague these days. It's too bad, because I really like to point out my perspective and hear the perspectives of others. It also disarms most accusations of incompetence once you've walked a mile in the other guy's shoes. You might not agree with them, but you can at least see where they were coming from. So, if any of the players wish to contact the Pouch or myself to provide some insight/counterpoint on events, feel free!

• Finally, I make liberal use of Judge abbreviations throughout this manuscript, and further they are the particular abbreviations I prefer to use. I apologize for any confusion that might arise because of this.

Since 'chaos2' is a Gunboat game we skip any thoughts of pre-season Diplomacy and forge directly into Spring 1901.

Movement results for Spring of 1901

AUSTRIA

Austria opens with the "Balkan Gambit" - Galician variation. Although predictable, this opening is infinitely forgivable since Austria's early priority is a desperate scramble for survival. Yachtman and Clarke both agree that this is the best move Austria can make, especially in nopress. I do as well. Trieste might as well be left undefended in favor of going for the builds, since if Italy intends to attack, Austria is almost certainly doomed-- just a matter of sooner or later.

The unexpected success of Vienna -> Galicia is the only surprise here, and will prove to be a large factor in Russia's eventual undoing.

ENGLAND

Yorkshire Opening. This is great news for me, as it's about as anti-French as England can get barring A Lvp-Wal. A convoy to either Norway or Belgium can commence, with the only snag being if England goes for Denmark instead. Fortunately Russia has made an anti-English movement and the French won't be happy either, so I take the gamble that England won't try making me an enemy as well. I have two units that can bounce him, after all.

FRANCE

Manche Opening (a.k.a. English Attack). Another textbook opener that Yachtman praises and Clarke expresses reservations upon. The very fact that this opening is subtitled "English Attack" is telling. Paris to Burgundy is a non-issue for me... with Belgium open to a possible English convoy and the Italian's movements, I find little danger of Bur-Mun in the Fall and continue my course as planned. England and France are going to have a very hard time extricating from the war they've started with one another.

GERMANY

Well, faithful readers, you of course know what these moves are the start of... but at the time, I'm sure they confused the other powers nicely. It bears the closest resemblance to a Prussian Barbarossa, but the lack of Mun-Sil is a major difference. No data for this opening existed in the Openings Library as of 6/99, much less when chaos2 started. To most it seems rather indecisive or crazy. To Russia it probably seems crazy as well, but the possibility of Bal-Swe and

Pru-War (or worse a lucky coordination on Warsaw with Austria in Galicia) will be giving him fits.

ITALY

A Western Lepanto, and the angels are on my shoulders! Italy hasn't attacked Austria or moved to Tyrolia, both of which would have derailed my plans. Moreover, he is going full steam after France... it won't get him anywhere fast, but it'll keep France busy and keep England attacking France in the North, hoping to shake hands with Italy somewhere around the MAO-Gas-Bur strip. Italy is the only other "gambler" I've seen so far in this game... will it pay off?

RUSSIA

Check that, we have another gambler in Russia... and an ambitious one at that, gunning for Scandinavia and a strong Southern presence all at once! This particular opening is colloquially entitled "The Squid."

It is possible Russia was hoping for an anti-Turk alliance with Austria by letting the latter have Galicia, but failing to move F Sev-Arm and A Mos-Sev undercuts this intent. F Sev bounces uselessly and sets up no cooperation with the Turk either. From a tactical standpoint all I can think of is that Russia wanted to be sure of being able to grab Rumania with an army while still being able to go North... but Austria orders Vie-Gal so often that this isn't the best way. On the diplomatic side, the only clear signal Russia has sent is anti-English, which is good news for me! The strong Russian presence in the North will complicate my strategy, but at least he and England won't be making nice anytime soon. Nor did he signal any peaceable intent towards me, which he could have with F StP(sc)-Fin instead of GoB. Russia seems to be opening hostilities on two fronts and rapidly depriving himself of possible friends. Perfect.

TURKEY

Balkan Concentration. Ho hum, but Turkey doesn't have too many options socked away in his corner and can afford patience. If this were a press game I'd suspect the bounce as arranged since Russia left such a weak Southern presence (Turkey could pick up the Juggernaut slack). In this case though it's such a common move nothing can be gleaned from it either tactically or diplomatically.

Movement results for Fall of 1901

AUSTRIA

Absolutely and completely brilliant. Austria does the unthinkable and goes on the offensive in 1901, and almost gets Rumania except for a pure chance coordination on the parts of Russia and Turkey. His three home centers were open for three builds, as well. As it stands, he bounces the Russian fleet and ensures Russia only gets one build, which is good for both of us... meanwhile Austria gets two builds and maintains a strategic forward position in Galicia. The only problem is that the chance Russo-Turkish cooperation means the Juggernaut now looms against him.

ENGLAND

England picks up Norway for its traditional build, despite the Russian presence... a gamble, but so were Belgium and Denmark, and England apparently correctly guesses that the anti-Russian opening of Germany has spooked the Tsar and made him move A StP-Fin to rectify a likely denial of Sweden (F Bal-Swe). England also gets lucky with the Channel as the French fleet sails out to presumably engage the Italians in the coming year. On the downside for me,

Scandinavia is getting rather crowded. On the upside, the English army threatens St. Petersburg.

FRANCE

France apparently plays three guessing games here, and loses two of them. While it's difficult to say what the thinking behind Bre-MAO was-- I don't know why he thought England wouldn't move to the Channel since moving the fleets into position on Norway would require passing up the build. On the other hand, an England thinking long term would realize his hold on Norway would be tenuous at best and might have chosen patience and positioning over quick growth. More likely France was simply opening Brest up for a new fleet build, but his miscalculation on Italy leaves him only one build and his heartland laid open. France's sole bright spot is gaining Belgium (Have a bone, Frenchie! Thanks for not taking Munich!), but with England and Italy encroaching he's not likely to hold it for long unless I help out... which I'm not ready to do just yet.

GERMANY

The first circling commences like clockwork, and my risks have paid off. Diplomatically, just about everything favors my strategy at the moment... but Scandinavia is quite crowded and if England and Russia start working together I could be hosed. Two new German units will quiet any vulture-ish thoughts from others in the meantime.

ITALY

Oh my God, he actually did it. He actually took Marseilles! France's decision to call the Italian bluff, and Italy's answering move that shows it was no bluff, has made for a five center Italy at the end of 1901. The success will no doubt keep Italy going in that direction. An unspoken "Central Triple" seems to have formed, with non-aggression between GIA leading to success for all. And thank heaven, because if Italy got stonewalled against France he might turn back East or North.

RUSSIA

Austria's army in Galicia means I can't necessarily take credit for A Pru as being the reason for the Russian backpedal to protect Warsaw, but I would venture that it at least helped. My Spring moves probably made me look just crazy enough to try for it, whereas Austria could more easily be written off as not having the luxury. Without the opening of A Ber-Pru a correct Russian guess would have netted him Rumania this turn, with the Turk lending his timely support. So on the surface my theory behind A Ber-Pru (relieving pressure on Austria and thus preventing Russian builds) seems to have been sound. Russia's army finds itself back in Warsaw with no one to fight, and an Austrian army still on his borders.

Meanwhile in the North, Russia wisely foregoes bouncing England out of Norway in favor of going for Sweden and moving A StP-Fin... presumably for one unit to support the other into Sweden next turn should I bounce him out this year. He no doubt is seeking for English help at the moment, attempting to redress his earlier aggressions. Will my "retreat" cause the Bear to change directions before the final drive, as my theories hope?

TURKEY

Pretty amazing guesswork and team spirit here from the Turk, without which a six center Austria could have been on its way to Juggernauting the Juggernauters! He correctly figures that Ukraine will cover Warsaw and that Russia must use his only other unit in the sphere, the fleet, as a last ditch hope for getting Rumania. Despite moving to the Black Sea, the support combined with no armies in Smyrna or Armenia all but cements an alliance with a Russia that was badly in need of friends.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1901

AUSTRIA

Austria displays some long term strategic thinking to accompany his tactical acumen. With Italy engaged in the West and the start of a Juggernaut attempt clearly signaled last turn, Austria plugs up its landward side and prepares another fleet to counter the Turk on the seas. Austria is cemented in my mind at this point as such a good player that I have no illusions that he might attack Italy. I silently wish him Godspeed in his coming fight.

ENGLAND

The army in Norway is in something of a vulnerable position, particularly if Russia builds in St. Petersburg. I would have expected F Edi in order to help out in Scandinavia... instead F Lon, which can't go much of anywhere if Nth supports Nwy to hold as I expect.

FRANCE

France stoically sticks to his original plan, perhaps wanting to punish England and try to signal me for help. Another look at the board shows that by risking Belgium, France can cover all his other assets in Spring by bouncing Spain and Brest over Gascony and moving Belgium to Burgundy. Meanwhile F MAO can try for the W Med, and if it bounces with Tunis can take Portugal in Fall. All in all, not too bad a plan, if it is indeed his plan.

GERMANY

Will the Bear swallow the bait? Will England stay frosty despite the new fleet and the swing back towards him last turn? Will the non-American readers of The Pouch be able to forge a path through my continuing, copious use of slang?

I have an inkling that F Lon indicates the Englishman figured my reversal as coming back to try to share in the spoils of a besieged France... he isn't sure of that though, or he would have built in Liverpool.

ITALY

Army Rome is surprising and alarming. It's not army Venice, but Pie-Tyr, Rom-Ven is a possibility for Spring. On the other hand, why abandon his rare and lovely inroad into France? I would have built two fleets and tried to break out into the Atlantic while Piedmont supported Marseilles until a fleet supported push could occur, but perhaps Italy is hoping to once again get lucky. If France is setting up as savvy a defense as I think he is, Italy is in for a rude surprise. Hopefully not rude enough to make him change tacks.

RUSSIA

Hmm. Warsaw and Sevastopol are occupied, but St. Petersburg was an option. Is the Bear moving to plug the Ukranian gap? Or is this a feint before he moves West or North? A Mos has a lot of options, and could take a lot of the steam out of my coming surprise.

TURKEY

Juggernaut confirmed. Good luck, Austria! You'll need it!

Movement results for Spring of 1902

AUSTRIA

Austria takes the chance that Russia will once again 'Squid' (A Mos-StP, A War-Ukr) and split his forces rather than concentrate Southwards, with stunning results. Truly, the best defense is sometimes a good offense! Hanging onto Rumania in Fall will be impossible if Russia and Turkey manage to coordinate again, but Austria has bought himself some time and given RT a black eye. Admittedly this is a nopress game where the full weight of a Juggernaut can't be brought to bear, but watching Austria hold them both off all by his lonesome is a sight to see! Can he repeat the performance in Fall? As expected, the newly built fleet is on its way to plug the Ionian... and if everything goes as planned Austria will get some unexpected help from his German buddy that just rammed two fleets up the Bear's furry heiney.

ENGLAND

Yow. England took a huge risk by not supporting Norway to hold. I'm not sure if he was moving against me, or France, or both... but fortunately my move and Russia's move will quickly change the English mind, assuming he was going after me.

FRANCE

Okay, France wasn't quite as smart as I thought. Maybe after my turnaround and fleet build he was expecting me to come to his rescue against England, which would leave him free to redress his Italian grievances. Still, a savvy Italian could have slipped into Gascony and caused all manner of problems for Fall. France loses Belgium, but that isn't really his fault, he merely once again comes out on the wrong end of a calculated risk.

GERMANY

Paydirt. The "retreat" worked like a charm on Russia and he swallowed the bait of peace hook, line, and sinker. He probably read my change of frontage and builds as anti-English, which would explain the move he attempts. Or maybe he just was making an opportunistic stab at getting all of Scandinavia for himself. By accident or design he has enough units in the North that I have some tactical trials ahead, but diplomatically he just sunk himself with his greed.

ITALY

An addendum to my comments on what I would have done as Italy. Italy is free to move Marseilles in Spring and try to slip past the French defense, which he apparently correctly realizes and tries. France however outguesses him both on land and on sea, preventing any thought of a convoy to Spain in Fall. In Fall the maneuverability is lost now that France has two armies on Marseilles. A Mar will need to hold with support, or Italy risks losing the rare jewel he received in 1901.

RUSSIA

I don't know what England was thinking by not supporting Norway, but suddenly my army in Denmark becomes the unwitting hero of the hour by cutting off the Swedish fleet and thus saving the English army from utter destruction. England suddenly sees my fleets weren't aimed at him (though he apparently doesn't realize they will be eventually), but moreover has a near disaster at the hands of a backstabbing Bear averted only by timely German intervention. Russia's timing couldn't have been worse, as England will at most support Norway to hold and at worst may actually join in with my attack! I prefer the former, since England is my next target and I would rather his fleets still be fooling around against France.

TURKEY

More team spirit from the Turk while he gets his new fleet into open water. If they do full supports of F Sev-Rum in Fall they'll finally make it in. It would be better to get the army in instead, but with nopress neither can be sure the other will be able to coordinate a change of plan. F Bla will be tied up supporting the attack, meaning that F Aeg and A Con will have to support Bulgaria in place. Trying to move it is too great a risk against the clever and aggressive Austrian, who might very well try a 3-strong attack from Rumania into Bulgaria. Austria has actually maneuvered RT into trying to hold on and recover lost time, rather than making an offensive!

Movement results for Fall of 1902

AUSTRIA

Austria's play so far had led me to expect a big attempt at Bulgaria, but in analysis this move isn't bad... in fact, it's probably better. Austria really can't afford to take the chance of losing Greece in a Fall turn, and while F Alb could have supported Greece to hold, Austria didn't want to waste any more time positioning it to bottle up the Turk. The cost is losing a center without any gains to soften the blow... but then again Austria is showing foresight here by taking the loss now instead of going to Bulgaria where he can likely be vaporized in Spring (ouch!). He also plays an interesting card by as much as inviting Russia in with a friendly gesture. With Galicia empty and Sevastopol open for building a second Russian fleet this actually could have been an option had I not began my systematic rampage in the North. Still, if Russia goes for it I'm in trouble... this offer of alliance is showing me that Austria is the only other power in the game looking at the whole board in a long-term sense. He knows that he can fight off R/T for a long time as long as Italy stays friendly, but Italy won't stay friendly forever and in the meantime Austria is locked down and static. My midgame success likewise depends a great deal on Austria being in just this static state, and Austria's shown such skill so far I can't help but assume the worst. Namely, that he sees that not only will an A/R against the Turk at this point get him growing and maneuvering again, but every build Russia gets out of it will slow me down-- without Austria having to actually raise a finger of his own against me.

I'm banking on Russia to not be quite so imaginative, probably simply chortling at finally "outsmarting" Austria and blindly continuing the R/T. There's also the outside possibility that Austria's alliance wrangling is aimed at preparing him for Italy, who was making way against France far faster than expected and would no doubt be sniffing around Trieste soon.

ENGLAND

Well, England heeded his wake-up call in Norway, but he's staying pretty neutral. That's okay, his static orders this turn are playing right into my hands. The big question is, where and what will he build? That will speak reams about his future intentions.

FRANCE

It shouldn't have worked. But then again, Italy taking Marseilles in '01 shouldn't have worked either, so this redresses the balance. Fleet Brest HOLD is odd on the surface, but not in light of the big picture. France wants desperately to have one front and thus is not only conceding Belgium but also peacefully defending Brest rather than heading to the Channel. Not only that, but his presence in Brest means England has no worries about another fleet being built. Still, I would have chanced Bre -> Gas just to ensure the Italian's destruction if Marseilles was retaken. France loses Belgium, but keeps Spain, retakes Marseilles and occupies Portugal. His peacemaking overtures to England show wisdom but depend on England stopping his French tunnel vision long enough to wake up to the threat I'm eventually going to pose to him. While not quite as tactically sound as Austria, France is someone else to watch out for should his current recovery streak continue. He's thinking ahead-- but Bre S Eng would have been stronger than simply holding.

GERMANY

The crowded state of Scandinavia caused me to have to alter my plans away from a convoy, and to compound that, for the first time this game I'm making some unfortunate mistakes. Army Holland held last year which is usually considered a no-no in Diplomacy, but unlike France in Brest I was adjacent to two powers and unwilling to display favoritism to either (as support would entail). Sometime between Spring and Fall I'd convinced myself that England just had to have realized that stopping me from overrunning Scandinavia and Russia was as important or more important than going after France. This Fall he was more occupied with supporting two units that would have been destroyed if successfully dislodged, so I wasn't worried about Denmark yet. But army Norway was free to support Sweden to hold if England did the smart thing and discarded Russia's attempt to stab in light of the new circumstances. With St. Petersburg out of the question all I could do was try for Sweden with my two uncuttable fleet supports and hope for the best... I was assuming that Russia would definitely retake Rumania this year, so if I didn't take a SC from him to counter that he would get a build and I could end up with serious problems. I had to take a gamble that England stayed as shortsighted as he'd been playing so far... and that was a heck of a gamble since it could have failed and I'd gone against my plans of Western neutrality and ordered a (wasted!) anti-English support for France!

I think I also got nervous that a desperate France, theoretically unable to keep Belgium or retake Marseilles, would make a grab for Munich. So I felt I had to protect against that as well as send him a signal that he had at least one friend around who would help him out (that way hopefully dissuading him from any other thoughts of cannibalizing me to stay alive a bit longer against EI). Tactically it was a bad choice. If I hadn't taken Sweden my units would have ended up seriously disconnected in '03, with all my positioning of the first years coming to naught... this in spite of my risking Denmark just so I could keep my fleets in open water and my convoy options intact! There would have been no army available to convoy!

Nasty blunders all around, including that my necessarily hasty capture of Sweden allows for a Russian forward retreat to Skagerrak... in fact forces Russia to do so! And if Russia and England weren't working together this turn, after my ill-considered support and the French peace offerings they're sure to be on the same page in 1903. Sigh.

ITALY

Italy boggles my mind by repeating his Spring moves, which have almost nil chance of success (why would France move Spa -> Gas without Bre-Gas, the only circumstance where this has any value?). Perhaps Italy is a new player who is unaware that units cannot cut supports against themselves? Or perhaps he was gambling on France not using A Bur against Marseilles? If so, why not order a move to Burgundy or Gascony? In any case his foothold in Marseilles was too precious a thing for this big gamble, especially in Fall-- and he paid the price. On the other hand, France's failure to move F Bre-Gas in conjunction with the attack is going to cause headaches for him. Wanting to cover Brest is understandable, but Italy can retreat to Gascony, disband the comparatively useless army in Tuscany and cause some serious problems even after army Paris is built.

RUSSIA

Russia does what he can against my assault, but without English help it's doomed. Still, he does the smart thing and is all but crying out for the English to come around and aid him. His forward retreat into Skaggerak is going to be very troublesome, especially if England starts cooperating against me.

Meanwhile in the South, the expected capture of Rumania with the fleet commences and Russia will stay even in builds. He left Austria a retreat to Galicia though... will he regret that? In the long run F Rum is a rather impotent commodity against Austria, so perhaps he'll warm up to Austria's tempting offers of peace and turn on the Turk.

TURKEY

On the surface this looks rather useless, but if you look closely it shows the Turk has most of his bases covered and at least tries to keep moving. Austria may be daring but I certainly wouldn't have expected him to move Serbia somewhere... Turkey's move cuts a possible support to hold Rumania, which is about the same as supporting in Russia's fleet, but on the snowball's chance in Hades that Austria does vacate Turkey advances rather smartly. It can be supposed that's better than no chance at all. Smyrna and Constantinople meanwhile organize a "beleaguered garrison" defense of Bulgaria... it all falls apart if Austria orders the three strong attack from Rumania, but again that would have just trapped Austria. On the other hand, now that I think about it, Austria could have weakened the Turk at the same time as asking for a Russian alliance, with the Turk the natural target. And the risk of losing Greece might not have been all that big a deal, but I can hardly say my own play this turn was perfect.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1902.

AUSTRIA

Can Austria possibly have sent a clearer olive branch out to Russia? His retreat to Galicia was open... between this and the support there's no way Russia can't get the message. What will his answer be?

ITALY

Yep. France can probably destroy this annoyance in Spring if he moves right. But in the meantime it'll be an important thorn in his side as Italy moves his fleets into position. It'll certainly see more action than A Tus would!

RUSSIA

*blink* A gift from the Dip Gods. I guess Russia never believed Austria would disband and so wanted to free up a build to cover Warsaw. This is very good news for me... not only does it show a continuing distrust of Austria but Denmark is safe from the possibility of Anglo-Russo alliance against it. On the downside, much like Austria's disband the Russian disband could be a follow up signal to England that Russia no longer plans to be a threat to him.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1902

AUSTRIA

Perhaps dismayed at the implications of the Russian fleet disband, or perhaps wisely making sure Galicia can still be contested and not wishing to risk angering Italy, Austria rebuilds in Vienna.

ENGLAND

I can't believe my eyes, and I'm sure Russia can't either. Perhaps still smarting from the failed stab, England is abandoning Russia to hang in the North as he continues his war against France. This lack of long term vision will cost him.

FRANCE

Where else could he build? France is back in the game despite the single-minded aggressions of England and Italy, but will lose valuable time and position dealing with the Gascony problem.

GERMANY

Well, I once again overestimated my opponent. I thought there was no way England wouldn't turn on me after the Russian olive branches and my failed support of the French to Belgium, so I figured I'd better get another fleet out for defense and eventual offense against the new foe. The "foe" meanwhile appears to have continued on a course of blind trust in me, and blind aggression on France (despite F Bre's admittedly weak plea for peace). It doesn't make sense, but I'm not complaining. Surely this third fleet will wake England up, though?

ITALY

Strike all that about France having a Gascony headache. I can't believe Italy did this... so what if the army got vaporized, he had an opportunity to take MAO while France was preoccupied with it, then rebuild! He's either planning to switch fronts and attack Austria with his armies (dumb), or expecting a convoy of Tuscany to Spain to work (also dumb). Italy had gotten some incredibly lucky breaks advancing against France that by rights should never have happened, but now he's blown them all and allowed France to recover.

RUSSIA

You know, on further consideration Russia's disband didn't have to imply he was anti-Austrian... he could have built a fleet in Sevastopol and surprised the heck out of Turkey! Austria bent over backwards to sue for peace, but at this point it looks like all his efforts were for naught. Maybe Russia was also expecting me to build A Ber and start a land assault, but his build here gives Austria all the wrong signals and eliminates any thought of attacking the Turk... and I'm glad!

So, an interesting turn. Russia extends a plea for peace and alliance to England and is ignored, meanwhile Russia in turn ignores a similar plea from Austria. I've overestimated E & R and needlessly worried myself, but by now I can see a pretty clear picture. England and Russia are concerned only with their own situations and not looking at the rest of the board... and even in their own spheres they're not looking ahead more than a year at most. Italy's confused, Turkey's stagnant, and France and Austria are being hampered by the same lack of long term planning in England and Russia that's helping me. All in all, I've come through this year in great shape despite my blunders, and if England doesn't get his act together soon the Northeast is going to be all mine.

Movement results for Spring of 1903

AUSTRIA

Austria does the must-move of defending Galicia in Spring, and has to be tearing his hair out at Russia's single-mindedness. The move to the East Med is gutsy but could end up being a mistake... Turkey can defend Smyrna with A Con and support Bulgaria to hold with F Bla while slipping the Aegean fleet into the Ionian. But will the Turk see that, or will Austria's aggressive defenses continue to keep the Juggernaut intimidated and mentally on the run?

ENGLAND

Oh this is too much. Three German fleets and England not only is staying neutral but sending out peace/alliance feelers... it's like I'm holding his entire nation hostage by threatening Belgium! I feel almost criminal as I plan out my upcoming stab, but for now I might as well feed his delusions until I grab St. Pete's and put Russia out of the Northern picture for good.

FRANCE

France expects me to repeat my support to Belgium, but this time I actually played as if England would continue being friendly to me despite my having built another fleet (he's blithely ignored all the other warning signs!). Sure England, let's be good buddies... heh, heh...

Meanwhile, as expected the disband of army Gascony leaves France free to maneuver and Italy's prospects withering on the vines. When England attacks, Italy may make progress again, but he'll probably end up with the short end of the stick. Except for the fact I'm going to stab England. But then, I'm also going to start supporting France against Italy when I do.

GERMANY

I'm holding to strict neutrality on the continent while I patiently draw the noose tight around St. Petersburg. My support order is a ruse of course, intended to ensure England gets no sudden ideas about supporting St. Petersburg to hold. It also makes F Kie -> Hel look less threatening. I wouldn't take it as non-threatening (leaving it in Kiel could defend Holland and Denmark just as well without threatening the North Sea), but England so far has displayed a charming tendency to overlook such things. The move results of Spring 1902, where Russia attacks and I save his limey hide, must still have him hypnotized.

ITALY

We see the bitter fruits for Italy of disbanding the Gascony army as he enters a hold and two useless supports, not even bothering to give signaling supports with them. He must be a newbie, and in addition he doesn't seem to have any real plan going, as no convoy materializes and no attack on Austria commences. Bad alternatives, but better than disbanding Gascony only to follow up with this! A fall convoy to Spain can work, but only because he got lucky again with England building in Liverpool and moving on MAO. One of these days Italy's luck is going to run out, though... hopefully around the time I reach him.

RUSSIA

Russia scrambles to retreat and cover Livonia, but I've planned well and England's refusal to get involved has left him trapped. Barring the smart (and thus unlikely) English reversal, St. Pete's is doomed. Meanwhile he well and truly burns his bridges with Austria in the South, and I therefore feel no pity for him.

TURKEY

A good try, but the useless Russian fleet is leaving Austria in a much better defensive position than can be cracked through force, and Russia's armies are tied down with Galicia. Will Turkey recognize this and go for the Ionian sneak?

Movement results for Fall of 1903

AUSTRIA

Austria doesn't cover for an Ionian move, but as long as the Turk didn't see it either he has RT effectively stalemated. Now that Austria's attempts at finding a Southern ally have proven useless, perhaps I'll step in and give him a hand... or perhaps not, he'd be rather dangerous to let loose.

ENGLAND

My God, England just abandoned the North Sea right before the year I'm moving to stab him. Italy isn't the only one getting some incredibly lucky breaks in this game... of course, the difference will be apparent once I move in on it, since I plan to capitalize on this opening for all it's worth!

FRANCE

You can tell France just reached the breaking point. First he was trying to sue for peace with England as he moved on Italy... now England's blind belligerence is causing the opposite, and France not only manages to hang onto Marseilles and Spain but steams into NAO and teaches England a lesson about leaving open the back door. I don't know if he sees my stab of England coming, but I'm sure he'll feel immensely satisfied as he watches (and helps!) in the collapse. Just to kick him out of Liverpool will require a major English retreat that might save Brest or make England risk Belgium. I hope it's the latter, I have my eye on that center as part of the coming attack.

GERMANY

I move Munich to Berlin just in case Russia got frisky with Warsaw and marched it west. In retrospect a weak move, though it sends another subtle signal to France that I'm not against him, without the obviousness of something like a move to Ruhr. Most of my navy is by necessity out of position and will need some time to get West. Plus England's army and Russia's army will need tending to, though I expect a Russian retreat of StP -> Moscow, and a disband of A Fin since everything else is rather crucial and Finland can be easily popped in Spring. Russia's armies in Warsaw and Ukraine should be locked down indefinitely, contesting Galicia... but most importantly England's blunders of letting France into the NAO and leaving the North Sea open have stepped up my timetable. I can't let this circumstance slip by!

ITALY

Oy. The convoy occurs, but to the eminently defendable Marseilles rather than the almost assured Spain. F WMed wastes its move with a useless support. I guess that's the problem with getting lucky on silly moves... you never learn they're silly.

RUSSIA

Russia's not too bad a short-term tactician when on the ropes. I had to make the moves I did and put the fleets out of position rather than convoying the army to StP, for just the reasons Russia's attempted move illustrates. The units in the South are helplessly mired, but the doomed A StP makes one final attempt at signaling England for help before I shove it out... better than wasting the move on a futile defense. Even the self-centered Russia has to be gaping in utter horror at the North Sea abandonment.

TURKEY

Well, Austria played right... Turkey either didn't see the Ionian move or was too intimidated to try it. He continues his useless headbutting against a dug in foe.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1903.

RUSSIA

The only retreat available, and a sensible one even if there were other options. I'm incapable of pursuing him for the moment, but army Sweden isn't too far away.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1903

GERMANY

Tellingly, I'm the only one to build this year. Rather than build a fourth fleet and once again chance that England will brush it off, I build an army (I've got inland gaps to start worrying about plugging, anyhow). My occupation of Berlin serves another purpose here in that England can't wonder why I didn't build the army there. I'm probably giving him too much credit again, but soon it won't matter. If everything goes right Belgium and Norway will both be mine this year and France might just hang onto Liverpool as a bonus! By then I'll be in position to force my way into the North Sea and convoy an army onto the Isles. England's days are numbered.

RUSSIA

Just as expected, and my way against England is clear. Warsaw and Moscow can wait.

Movement results for Spring of 1904

AUSTRIA

Austria can do nothing but defend against a bullheaded RT, but he's keeping them successfully stonewalled.

ENGLAND

Think England will finally get the idea his German 'buddy' is up to something? I don't know how much the attempt at the North Sea surprised him, but his other moves seem to indicate I caught him with trousers firmly around his ankles. He's sacrificed all defense and position for a couple measly centers, and apparently didn't even view the rearward French fleet as worthy of consideration.

FRANCE

France does what he can in defense, but he's surrounded. He might be able to take Brest back, especially with my assault against England starting to roll, but his Southern front is collapsing fast. F NAO -> Clyde is an inspired move though, ensuring that even if England put two units on Liverpool this turn France has a shot at a supply center with Edinburgh. England's complete lack of care for defense and my perfidy in the North Sea leaves both open for France's choice. If he's smart he'll choose Liverpool, staying out of my way as long as possible.

GERMANY

The German war machine grinds into motion, patiently setting up position to start smashing England down in Fall. Too bad the move to the North Sea failed, but it keeps England out. My units in Scandinavia play musical chairs to gain maximum effect. Next turn, the fleet will crush the English army, which will have no retreat due to my army's presence in Finland. That army moves closer to Russia, and the fleet will join Fleet Denmark in pressuring the North Sea.

England has an even worse dilemma with Belgium. If he supports to hold Fleet Denmark will gain the North Sea... if he supports Eng-Nth he loses Belgium and bounces with Denmark again. If he supports Bel-Nth he gains the North, but again loses Belgium. He left himself hideously open and I've taken advantage to give him a nice, no-win situation.

I'll probably end up regretting moving to Silesia and helping Austria win his stalemate there against Russia, but my sentimental side has won out. Besides, it'll keep Russia busy awhile. One front at a time.

ITALY

Taking Spain with a convoyed army Tuscany would probably have been a stronger choice, but even Italy can't bungle this offensive completely. France has chosen to go down fighting England and Italy is the lucky winner.

RUSSIA

An odd move South, which I don't grasp the significance of.

TURKEY

Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Constantinople -> Smyrna.

Nothing new, except to firmly entrench Smyrna against Austria... but it has the same effect as if the bounce kept happening. Until F EMed goes away the army will be pinned down.

Retreat orders for Spring of 1904.

FRANCE

France isn't rolling over to die just yet, and his mid-range retreats will keep both England and Italy guessing. Too bad army Picardy isn't in Paris instead, or an attack with F MAO would retake Brest for sure. Still, he's got a really good chance at doing so anyhow with England preoccupied on Belgium and the North Sea. That's me, granter of opportunity...

Movement results for Fall of 1904

AUSTRIA

Same s--t, different season... except this time my meddling has its desired effect and Austria wins Galicia. Actually, he pretty much walks in as Russia abandons his futile defense in favor of something else.

ENGLAND

England begs at my feet as I execute the army in Norway with extreme prejudice. No sentimentality on this side of the board! He's temporarily regained the North Sea, but lost Belgium... so despite his gains this turn he'll have nothing to show for them. The self-bounce over MAO so he can defend it while keeping Brest and Portugal occupied is ingenious, though.

FRANCE

Well, France switches tacks again and it looks like Italy won't have quite as easy a time as he might have thought. In hindsight I have to admit this is superior to retaking Brest even though A Mar got destroyed. Brest would have had to keep being defended, while Paris is completely out of England's reach. Marseilles was doomed but France at least gets Spain back and sets up a line of defense against further Italian advances. Meanwhile the "lost" French fleet drops anchor in Liverpool and due to A Mar's vaporization France will only have to disband one unit this year despite the crushing odds he faced.

GERMANY

The machine grinds onwards on perfect schedule and I use the static fleet in StP to signal France. Hopefully he might keep his forward fleet with my promise of help? I rather doubt it, but at least it signals him where my intentions lie. I had to keep army Ruhr where it was in case France didn't cover Burgundy against the advancing Italian. I hope it doesn't cause France to become nervous.

ITALY

Uninspired moves that nonetheless work out. Despite not taking Spain, Italy will build this year.

RUSSIA

An interesting counter to my move to Silesia! Or perhaps Russia was already planning to do it when army Moscow headed South. He's going to end up regretting it though, as he lets Austria into Galicia just as the Turk leaves the Black Sea, and leaves a gap in the Ukraine that's got to have Austria salivating. Meanwhile it looks like he's caught me off guard, but my two builds will be more than adequate to stem his assault.

TURKEY

Aha, the reason for supporting Con -> Smy last turn, which I failed to consider. The Black Sea fleet is on its way to try to break through the Austrian naval blockade, and it looks like my meddling in Galicia was timely. Russia's fleet is caught flatfooted in its Rumanian harbor as the support vanishes, and faces three hostile units. If Austria goes that way only using Sevastopol to support to hold and an accompanying Turk move of Bul -> Ser will save the day. But to tie down Sevastopol could mean letting the savvy Austria into Ukraine at the same time my army arrives in St. Pete's. The mighty Juggernaut is now not only stopped in its tracks, but in danger of collapse.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1904.

ITALY

With the English and French armies having been destroyed outright, only Italy has a retreat to perform this turn, and he makes it to the only open route available.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1904

FRANCE

Goody gumdrops! France got my telepathic message! It probably also helped that hanging onto Spain this year was a pipe dream, but this is going to work out brilliantly for my campaign. The more headaches England has, the better.

GERMANY

You know, if I considered Italy a better player I'd be worried about a move to Tyrolia. Now would be a perfect time for a forward thinking Italy to go for it, but I'm through with cautiously overestimating opponents who've shown nothing but mistakes and shortsightedness in 4 years of play. I hitch up my iron britches and resolve to stay my course, gambling on the inexperience of Italy to make him overlook the need for Munich in the endgame.

ITALY

F Nap instead of F Rom? What means this, just another Italian oddity? Or is it something more sinister? I of course am leaning to the former explanation at this point.

Movement results for Spring of 1905

AUSTRIA

Austria goes for the throat in Rumania and gets it. The move to Ukraine would have worked as well, but I'm not complaining... I want Austria to busy himself with the Southeast for the foreseeable future. Interestingly enough, Greece was left open to an assault from the Aegean supported by Bulgaria, but the Turk failed to exploit that.

ENGLAND

England extends an olive branch to Italy as he scrambles to bring his expeditionary fleet back home. He's meanwhile put three units on Belgium... was he setting up a consolation prize for his now doomed possession of the North Sea? If so, France's moves have all but short-circuited the intention.

FRANCE

France comes out on the wrong end as Italy pulls off a near surefire move, but I thought he would have seen the futility of trying to defend Marseilles. Burgundy -> Paris is interesting. If England wants a sure capture of Belgium he'll have to use all three units on it and attack from Nth, but he risks London and Brest by doing so. I welcome the confusion, but really hope France is planning to move back to Burgundy and keep Italy at bay!

GERMANY

My Scandinavian army finally slides into position on Russia's flank while the Tsar's invasion is met head on by my defenses. If he attacks from Prussia he'll get into Silesia but I'll get into Prussia behind him and retreat Silesia to Munich, where I can defend Berlin with a self-bounce over it in Fall and retreat to Livonia if he dislodges A Pru. It would have been interesting, but Russia does the expected, attacking with Warsaw. No one gets anywhere and his surprise onslaught is stopped in its tracks.

Meanwhile my noose on the North Sea draws tight exactly as I had planned it to when I first began contemplating the English stab, and England's blindness to my wiles has ensured it will fall. Unlike the dislodge of the Russian fleet in Sweden, this time there will be no mistakes-- if England retreats to Skaggerak he will be trapped by the fleet steaming in from the GoB to Sweden and destroyed in short order. The worst England can do is retreat to the Norwegian Sea, and even there he won't be causing too much mischief.

My one miscalculation is having left Belgium vulnerable due to my need to plug up English retreat options. Fortunately again, France's moves make losing Belgium a very faint risk due to what England leaves open to do so. Good thing France went to Wales and didn't head North to Edinburgh like I suggested!

ITALY

Not too shabby! Looks like he's finally learning some good lessons... but what's with the move to Ionian? If he's going to stab Austria he really shouldn't be telegraphing like that. Then again, maybe along with his awakened sense of tactics Italy actually looked ahead to the fact that Turkey is trying to get two fleets out and one could have slipped into the Ionian all this time? Austria may have found that an acceptable risk, but it should have had Italy sweating long before now.

RUSSIA

Russia barely even tries to hang onto Rumania as he throws all his marbles into trying to get a unit to where it can threaten Berlin and Munich. He fails.

TURKEY

I'm guessing Turkey was very sensitive to F Aeg being dislodged, as Italy's (not too surprising after building in Naples) move cuts off its retreats. The set of apparently nonsensical orders makes perfect sense in that light.

Movement results for Fall of 1905

AUSTRIA

A very odd set of moves, especially from Austria where they're unlikely to be the result of a mistake. As near as I can figure it Austria got extremely nervous about the Italian fleet and thought it was going to support the Turkish army into Greece. This was a silly way to cover for it though since Rumania was almost certain to be attacked by Russia. Serbia supporting Greece to hold (or S Gre -> Bul) along with EMed to Ionian would have been much better. If the idea was to signal Turkey for alliance, why not give up Greece to him? He certainly can't be expecting Turkey to agree to trade Greece for Bulgaria. A Rum S A Bul along with Greece moving out would have extended the olive branch far better. Austria could have lost out big here if Turkey repeated his orders from last turn, and sent such a mixed signal it accomplishes nothing diplomatically.

ENGLAND

England goes a step further than peace and actually calls for an alliance with Italy against me. England probably doesn't yet realize how doomed he is-- or perhaps he does. Using the fleet to prod the opportunistic Italian towards empty Munich is ingenious... Italy has a build this year and an interest in advancing through France. Building A Ven and moving it to Tyrolia would really make problems for me, but it won't save England.

FRANCE

France: Army Gascony -> Brest. (*bounce, dislodged*)

A very good attempt at seizing SC's while my attack has England distracted. Unfortunately for him England figured out that the North Sea was a lost cause and moved to defend them. I guessed right on Belgium being safe, and that army will be very handy in the years to come.

GERMANY

I'm a bit worried at the prospect of a Russian suicide attempt on me, since Austria and Italy are getting to the point where they can start taking me on. So I send the signal that I don't mind him holding on to Moscow. Unfortunately the two on two in the Berlin-Warsaw area necessitated the defensive moves of Ber-Pru and Sil-War (cutting support from either against either). I've probably sent a mixed signal and also prevented him from retreating back across his borders. Maybe I should just go ahead and take Warsaw next year. That should secure my East far better than it is now and put me in position to challenge A or A/T coming North.

In the West there's no guessing involved. Belgium will hold or it won't, my real target is the North Sea, gateway to all things English. As long as Italy doesn't interfere I should have an army on the English mainland this time next year and then grind Britain from the top on downwards as I move towards the Med. Who would expect England to be invaded from the top side, right? Well, a savvy dipper might, but England isn't all that bright tactically or this situation would never have come to pass.

ITALY

Italy might be a newbie but he's showing budding promise as he progresses. Now his moves are depending a lot less on luck and more on good supports coupled with correctly divining his opponents' intents. He reads England's desire for peace correctly and responds by not taking Portugal and instead moving for position on France. Had France's Gascony -> Brest move worked France would really have been in trouble, and myself as well as Italy would get two units on an empty Burgundy. Gascony can thankfully retreat to Burgundy now where I can support it to hold with Belgium, plugging the gap. I hope France disbands his fleet and keeps his inland defense... the fleet was an excellent distraction, but it's now served its purpose. I hope I've been good enough to France that he won't screw me by keeping it and leaving us open to Italy.

Italy's one boner this round is abandoning the Ionian... he should have known moving there would have awakened Austria's paranoia and mistrust, since a successful IA alliance almost always leads to a midgame stab. If he was intending to stab he should have supported Turkey or refused to move... if he's trying to make amends or show the move was a defense against a Turkish sneak, why not still hold and support Austria, or retreat away from rather than toward Austria's rear? Now he's got a peevish Austria in reach of two of his SC's... Italy's new build can cover Naples, but he'll have to use WMed to cover Tunis or risk losing it.

He's also all but assured that Austria will build in Trieste, further aggravating the situation. Not that I particularly mind... an AI war at this point could be what saves my exposed rear.

RUSSIA

I think Russia overreacted a bit to the army moving into St. Petersburg, but I'm not complaining. He could have bounced it a long time using A Sev, instead he tried the futile recapture of Rumania. I said before Austria's moves were silly in that Rumania was almost certain to be attacked, but actually the smart thing for Russia to do is not waste half a year doing that. Austria expected Russia to do the smart thing, and was once again disappointed.

TURKEY

The Italian fleet really threw the Southeast into disarray as both Turkey and Austria scramble to protect themselves. Again, too bad Italy abandoned the Ionian this turn or it actually would have been a great move to keep his rear secure by preventing Austria from freely assaulting the Turk. Especially if he just held it there, one unit would keep AT guessing and fighting while he tried to progress in the West.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1905.

ENGLAND

A retreat to the Norwegian Sea or Edinburgh would have been much stronger, slowing my armada down while he brought his fleets back into position. He doesn't have the stones for it though and instead retreats to try and cover all his bases. My fleets can move onwards unchecked and the convoy will be on schedule. If I'm lucky he may not even have the chance to block it!

FRANCE

Nowhere else to go, and I'm pretty glad about that! Now I'll pray he doesn't try to move it anywhere again.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1905

AUSTRIA

How could he not, with Italy's moves? The only thing Italy succeeded in doing was poking Austria awake to watch his rear against his growing neighbor.

FRANCE

Good boy! I wonder if between this, and the fact that he didn't lose any SC's and I didn't build, England thinks he's doing well?

ITALY

Uh oh. Maybe I shouldn't have been so cocky about England's "inevitable fall" despite any Italian interference. If I move to defend I have to either abandon the planned convoy or not attack Warsaw. There's always the chance Italy's build is intended for Austria, so for now I'll stay my course, and if the army goes to Tyrolia I can hopefully bounce it from Silesia.

RUSSIA

Yep, it was pretty useless to him now. About all he could've done last turn was stab for Ankara, and that would have hastened his collapse in the long run.

Movement results for Spring of 1906

AUSTRIA

With Russia all but exorcised, Austria extends the olive branch to Italy to show his build was only meant for defense, and successfully advances to put four units on Bulgaria for Fall. Will Italy return the goodwill?

ENGLAND

I'm confident enough by now of the Englishman's character that I'm almost sure I'll be able to outguess his defenses. He's shown himself to be very protective of his SC's even when it could cost him the tactical advantage to do so. That would go doubly so in a Fall turn, which is of course what the next turn will be. I predict NAO -> Liverpool to recapture it from the French, Yorkshire -> Edinburgh, probably hoping to bounce with F Norwegian, and either London or the Channel attacking North to cut support for Nwg-Edi. If Brest falls Liverpool will compensate. Of course, even if he keeps Brest he won't have any place to build!

FRANCE

Good man. He leaves Burgundy in place and attacks with Paris, knowing England can't get anywhere on his backside. Of course, it's a good thing his attack doesn't succeed, or Italy could have retreated to Brest! The sticking point is that once England takes Liverpool, France will be down to one unit, and I very much doubt he'd keep Burgundy in favor of Paris. Thank goodness I'll be capturing Warsaw and building this turn!

GERMANY

So I switch my Eastern policy and decide to try and finish off Russia after all. I need the security in the East, and more than that I need the builds to cover my Western and central inland spaces. With France fading fast it seems to have been a sound choice, since I never intended to pick up a build from England this year. If he moves as predicted my convoy will panic him, but whether I'll be able to take a center even next year is debatable. Attacking England depends on position, not grabbing SC's... and most importantly involves getting an army onto his Isles. Preferably two armies. We'll see what happens.

ITALY

Whew. Army Venice doesn't go to Tyrolia. Neither does it attack Austria, but that huge fleet turnaround has to be making the Sultan and the Archduke nervous. All pretty good news for me... unless he turns around again Italy is going to lose his chance at breaking out of the Med to challenge me. Italy's probably gambling on England being able to slow me down, and thus not wanting to handicap him by taking Portugal. Maybe he also still intends Ven -> Tyrolia, but this time I'll have a newly built army in Munich to greet it before he can do anything.

RUSSIA

Looks like the Tsar got very nervous about StP -> Lvn. I don't know why, since it slows down my assault on England and gets me no advantage I can't get from StP (cutting Moscow's support for a hold in Warsaw). Russia's options are severely deteriorating though, as Sevastopol is doomed to beat its head ineffectually against Rumania unless a big shake-up occurs. Italy's move might foreshadow such a shake-up though, who knows?

TURKEY

The Turk is forced back, but using the momentary respite in Smyrna to reposition his forces is as brilliant as you can get in his position. The fleet is back in the Black (no AC/DC jokes, please), and if Sevastopol continues to attack Rumania while the retreated fleet attacks the Aegean, Bulgaria can be saved. Of course, if Italy slips in to add his two cents, Turkey is toast. If the Turk is really devious he could actually retreat from Bulgaria and let Austria take it, then disband his outside fleet... it would put a dangerously large Austria between him and Italy that Italy would need to seriously consider putting the dagger to. Once IA start fighting, Turkey would be saved and might even be able to recover lost ground.

Retreat orders for Spring of 1906.

RUSSIA

His bounce over Livonia left him no other option. As expected, Warsaw is mine.

TURKEY

Yep. It leaves the EMed hole for Italy, but Smyrna can't afford to be lost.

Movement results for Fall of 1906

AUSTRIA

Blam. The obvious move, and because Turkey has a fit of insanity this turn it hurts more than it might have.

ENGLAND

Good lord... just like I predicted, with the further folly of moving to cover Brest. My fleet getting into the Channel would have hurt a lot more than the unlikely event of losing Brest to France. Also as expected, England has a build and nowhere to use it. Oh I'm going to have so much fun with him in the turns to come...

FRANCE

Good man, keeping up the staunch defense to the last. I think his end is near though, and I hope I can stave off the Italian until my games with England are done.

GERMANY

The convoy goes off, and England's eyes are probably bugging out. On the downside I didn't go to Yorkshire which would have really crippled him, but I figured Lon -> Yor, Eng -> Lon was still a remote possibility and a convoy bouncing would hurt. Further adding to the downside, I yank an army from the continent at what turns out to be a bad time. Oh well, these are the risks that must be taken to succeed... I'm so glad I'm not facing down a good opponent in England. I well know from playing the Brits myself that a cunning defender can cause no end of headache and delay to even a concerted attack.

ITALY

Italy's not even supporting himself in the West! Maybe he expected France to try for Brest? But if France moved Par -> Bre and succeeded, following up with Bur -> Par, he gets Brest and both Italian armies still bounce! Not too mention that if England hadn't taken Liverpool, Paris would have been open for a build!

Well, ours is not to reason why. He has an army in Tyrolia now and since even Italy can't seem to figure out which way he's going, I can't begin to guess at his intents with it. The old saying comes to mind that your most dangerous opponents aren't professionals... the most dangerous ones are the experts and the rank amateurs, because neither can be predicted accurately.

RUSSIA

Futile, but at least he's sticking with the game. If Turkey hadn't blown a fuse the attack on Rumania could have made all the difference in beleaguered Bulgaria.

TURKEY

What the heck was this? Did he really think his attack would work, or had he just given up on Bulgaria despite the almost assured Russian attack on Rumania? Russia had nothing else to do, his army couldn't save Warsaw and can support Moscow just as well from where it is. Turkey could have saved Bulgaria or at least staged his retreat... this does nothing and now he has no choice of what to disband. Army go *poof*.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1906.

RUSSIA

I'm not sure what this accomplishes, since it's his only sane disband. Austria has no choice but to build in Vienna anyhow, so Russia's not influencing anything for the build phase.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1906

AUSTRIA

Yep.

ENGLAND

Build waived.

He could've really used that build, too bad I outguessed him. I have to stay very committed to my attack however, since if I let up the pressure even a bit he can recover.

FRANCE

No brainer. France will make a last stand in his capitol.

GERMANY

Hmm, I'm not as bad off as I thought. I can support Munich to Burgundy using Belgium and either bounce Italy or actually take the province if he doesn't support himself. France might even give an assist by attacking Gascony. Meanwhile the disbanding of Galicia will mean Silesia is free to defend Munich.

My biggest fear at this point is that Austria and Italy will move on me together. I have 10 centers to their 7 and 6, respectively, and am well on my way to dominating the Northern half of the board. Italy may not recognize this, but Austria is good enough to know I need to be stopped.

RUSSIA

Anything else might have annoyed me by tying down Silesia, but it would have cost him Moscow. He can hold me off at least a while longer, and if AIT wake up might even get in on a draw.

Movement results for Spring of 1907

AUSTRIA

Oh. Crap.

It could've been worse if he'd read Russia's situation correctly and ordered Bud -> Gal instead of giving unnecessary support to Rumania, but Vie -> Boh is my worst fears come to life. I can't play cat and mouse with England any longer, I need to put him down now and take his builds to the continent, or a stalemate will be the least of my worries. The attack on Aegean is nothing, simply keeping the Turk honest as Austria tests the waters to see if Italy will awaken to the German threat.

I should never have helped Austria out of his R-T détente! Damn!

ENGLAND

Even blind-as-a-bat England seems to have seen what a threat I've become to everyone and is encouraging Austria to counter. To his credit he doesn't swallow the bait of trying to destroy the army in Clyde, but the ending positions are the same. He's real silly if he thought I was leaving the North Sea unsupported, that's for sure.

FRANCE

France takes a chance on the Italian grab for Burgundy, unfortunately England doesn't take the chance on Brest. England's refusal to leave Brest and cover the Channel is going to hurt only himself in the long run, though. If England truly wants to see me taken down it's his duty to delay me as much as he can, and he's not doing his part.

GERMANY

Italy makes his drive for Burgundy and Munich and gets neither, but I must say I'm impressed he saw it and made the attempt. Only my advanced maneuvering saved the day and with Austria in Bohemia I could be in trouble next turn.

Just in case Russia had gotten in the habit of ordering Sev-Rum I made my try for Moscow, but the Tsar is still awake at the switch. Meanwhile I felt an almost guilty pleasure in playing with my prey in England. It was necessary play since A Clyde faced destruction otherwise, but Austria's move made my pleasure painful.

ITALY

God bless Italy!!! For some incomprehensible reason he signals the Turk for an anti-Austrian alliance at the same time he's moving on me! Combine that with two units on Trieste and his final fleet steaming back Eastwards rather than moving to help England, and the hope of an alliance against me all but falls apart. They could still pull it off, but it would take a prodigious feat of trust that both I and A would have to adhere to, and should at least delay them. Nonetheless, I'll put together my defense assuming the worst (for me).

RUSSIA

The bear digs in to hold on to his last two centers. Perhaps I can use his hibernation to my advantage? If IA stick together I'm going to need to take a chance somewhere along my lines.

TURKEY

Ho hum, except that Italy's support offer is a ray of hope. How can the Turk refuse such a light at the end of his tunnel?

Movement results for Fall of 1907

AUSTRIA

I pause to make reference to an analogy that will no doubt leave my non-American readers once again bemused, because I so clearly picture Austria in the role of G.I. Joe's Cobra Commander right now, beating at his helmet and screaming, "I AM SSSSSSURROUNDED BY IDIOTSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!"

Come to think, a lot of Americans may not get that either. I'm sure Austria really, really was hoping that Italy wasn't going to go through with the stab, but he nonetheless had to abandon the push on me to see to his defenses. I still think he's doing needless supports of Rumania, which cost him big. On the plus side, Italy managed to leave Piedmont wide open! Is a pissed-off Austrian going to take advantage of that? Oh, you betcha...

ENGLAND

England once again scrambles to cover his supply centers and absolutely refuses to budge from Brest. I've got him outgunned and outmaneuvered as his first home supply center falls and the fleet protecting it is utterly destroyed. Cly -> Lvp once again screws him out of the opportunity to rebuild it... I guess he figured my convoying as too big a risk with events on the continent as they were, and thought Clyde would be open for a retreat.

FRANCE

Failed again, but certainly worthwhile for me. England's bullheadedness at not getting that fleet out to defend his homeland is sealing his doom.

GERMANY

I try to make peace with Italy since he can't attack me and attack Austria at the same time... apparently though he's under the misconception that he can. I move Warsaw -> Galicia to bounce Rum -> Gal, but since the latter doesn't happen I find myself behind the lines! Fortunately I correctly guess that Russia won't do anything rash, especially in Fall. He may try to move to Warsaw next turn, but he's missed his window.

I figured I had to cover Munich even against the infinitesimal possibility that IA could not only get their act together but coordinate an attack. Munich is just too important, even if it meant giving up Burgundy. Convoying another army off the continent looks insane, but by now I had such a feel for England it was like having a copy of his orders before the turn progressed. I saw my opportunity to take Edinburgh and destroy the fleet there, which could only have been stopped by Lon -> Yor ... and I knew there was no way England would move London in a fall turn! I have a much needed build which I'll use to raise an army in Kiel and plug Ruhr while I convoy the army back to Belgium. If the Italian bounces either move, I'll just have the successful one support the other in, and then Italy's land assault won't have any hope to make headway against me. France is no doubt a goner, though... sorry, buddy.

ITALY

Italy stabs hard... too hard, leaving the aforementioned opening in Piedmont. This is probably the worst thing he could have done at this point in the game, which could have easily ended in a draw if he'd just cooperated with Austria. Now not only has he stabbed, but he's stabbed badly against a competent and very angry former friend. On the other hand, the harsh lessons he'll be learning soon enough are something he can profit from for his next games. He has shown to have something of a learning curve, after all...

RUSSIA

Just as I suspected, the bear is hibernating for the Winter.

TURKEY

Turkey might yet rise from the ashes... but it'll be too late. Italy's stab this turn all but ensures a solo for me, barring any mistakes on my part. AI will never be able to trust each other again in time, especially in nopress... and the games with England are over. One year more is all he has to kiss his homeland goodbye.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1907.

AUSTRIA

Austria isn't going to be easy prey, forcing his attackers to guess what he'll remove as they try to decide on their own builds. I expect to see Austria disband his Eastern units as he prepares to make Italy regret ever looking cross-eyed in his direction.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1907

AUSTRIA

Ayep, just as I expected. Italy, prepare to feel the homicidal, suicidal, genocidal power of a truly horked off but not yet critically weakened Austria.

For you non-Americans, yes, "horked off" would be akin to "deeply upset."

ENGLAND

Build waived.

Admittedly I was hoping England would move to Liverpool to cover against Yor -> Lvp, but Nwg -> Cly was just to cut any support for Edinburgh... I never dreamed England would once again screw himself out of his build and let me into Clyde behind him! Oh he is sooooo over...

GERMANY

I 'splained this already.

ITALY

Eh. It will lessen the sting of Tyrolia -> Piedmont, but I doubt Italy is even considering that possibility. He's building in order to keep going on either his West or East fronts, not realizing yet he's doomed to failure on both.

TURKEY

Here comes the lucky winner of the new I-A war! Italy ironically even helped him get rolling!

Movement results for Spring of 1908

AUSTRIA

Austria of course goes through with the Piedmont move, and also retakes Trieste with authority. Maybe he's trying to take Italy down fast enough to possibly get builds back in time to hold off Turkey? I rather think though that at this point Austria's so frustrated he just wants to hurt Italy badly. He made his try at forging an alliance to stop me and the one person he needed most not only ignored him but attacked.

ENGLAND

England is now in full retreat, not even bothering to make me dislodge him. I'm not leaving any holes for him to exploit, but there's the chance I could have. I take both his remaining home centers and he'll have no chance of getting them back before having to disband something. He can fool around all he wants now, he'll never again have a build he can use.

FRANCE

England still refuses to leave Brest! Boy, I have to hand it to the French. One army has kept an English fleet rotting in its harbor for years while it could have been off providing much needed defensive support. Especially during the time England had the spare supply space, in my opinion leaving it there was a bad move. Brest was expendable compared to keeping me from overrunning the Home Isles.

GERMANY

It's not like England could have stopped me at this point, but he could've held in Liverpool and retreated to the Irish Sea, which would have slowed me down at least a bit. He might even have kept one or the other if I'd convoyed an army back to Belgium. Ah well... it's kind of cool to have the feeling of sending an entire nation into rout. I took a big chance by leaving Belgium open, but I figured after all this time trying to get two units on Paris, Italy couldn't help but try to grab for it. That, and my forecast of Tyr-Pie led me to take the risk-- and it paid off nicely.

ITALY

Italy, Italy, Italy... you didn't really think I was gonna let you beat up on the Frenchman that easy, did you? And now Tyr-Pie has you in a real bind. Hmm-- let's see if your obsession with destroying the French is as bad as I think it is. If you're really focused you'll get him! But I'll get into Burgundy, and Austria is probably going to also read you and make a jump for Marseilles. The perils of making an enemy of someone that doesn't have much to lose, neh?

RUSSIA

Oh boy... my foes are getting far too predictable these days. The Bear snorts and wakes up, and goes for Warsaw half a year too late. He doesn't take advantage of an almost assured re-entry into Rumania (Austria all but telegraphed his anti-Italian rush last turn), and seals Moscow's doom by allowing me to sneak into Ukraine. It won't fall this turn, but next year it's a goner.

TURKEY

Hmm. Perhaps there's method to Austria's madness. Turkey only has one army, and Austria's disbands ceded all his coastal territories on the Turk front. If Austria can keep the Turk from Rumania and Serbia and hang onto Trieste, perhaps also grabbing Marseilles... he might yet have some hope of survival. On the other hand, a perceptive Turk will recognize that and go on all out attack.

Retreat orders for Spring of 1908.

ITALY

Oops. My analysis forgot all about this! Austria really can't cover all his bases effectively this turn, but his best bet is probably to order Vienna to support Trieste and cover Serbia with Budapest while making a try for Marseilles. Rumania's a lost cause, I can't see the Turk not supporting himself in one way or the other-- and neither move can be stopped.

Movement results for Fall of 1908

AUSTRIA

Ow, ow, ow. Budapest wastes itself on a futile Rumanian defense and nothing supports Trieste. Position is all well and good, but not if you castrate yourself doing it! I guess Austria is going for the murder/suicide strategy after all, but if so why not hold Trieste and take Marseilles? The only way these moves do any good is if Italy attacks from Venice rather than Tyrolia, but there's no reason for him to do that. And Budapest -> Rumania while leaving Serbia open is just inexplicable.

Not that it truly matters to me, I guess. Austria's capture of Marseilles prevents Italy from building, and I don't see much chance that the Turk is going to win the race to 18 against me at this point. If they can finish off Austria quickly I-T might be able to force a draw, but Austria's doing his peevish darnedest to see that if he can't win or be part of the draw he's gonna make sure all his tormentors lose. After all, except for the one move to Galicia I've been nothing but friendly to him this whole game.

ENGLAND

Sorry England, you're not getting away that easy! What shall you be removing, hmm? I'm guessing fleet Wales... I suppose at least you tried to move Brest this turn, but I owed it to France to make you pay for trying to cover it with Eng instead of supporting to MAO. Besides, I can't have you getting back to Portugal and digging in.

FRANCE

Italy's obsessed assault finally succeeds in eliminating the stalwart French, but France can go out knowing he's cost both England and Italy dearly. There's no way I'm going to go to a draw with Italy involved at this point... if he doesn't eat a loss out of this he might not learn from his mistakes.

GERMANY

I have to pause for a bit while I complete the annexation of England, so I use the idle fleets to let Austria know I'm appreciating his efforts. Hopefully he won't get too gushy and think I'm actually going to support him into Rumania next turn. Moscow's the target... then again, putting a scare into the Turk doesn't hurt.

Italy lets me walk into Burgundy just as my army is freed up to convoy back from the Isles. Actually I set it up so that the only move that saved Burgundy would be Gascony supporting it to hold in place... which of course would have saved France and let Austria into Marseilles. The only thing Italy managed to accomplish was to put France out of the picture, but it was at a pretty dismal cost to his own position. Soon I'll have two more armies to play with along with a quite nice looking position for the endgame.

ITALY

A good show retaking Trieste, but I'm finally in contact with him and it's time to deal out an arse whupping he'll remember for a long time...

RUSSIA

Right back to hibernation again. Suits me fine, this time I'm on the backdoor of his cave and can smoke him out whether he likes it or not.

TURKEY

Maybe Austria was expecting me to support him into Rumania (even though I only signaled the hope of that this turn, not the previous one)? That would explain his move, and it would have been better than the near surefire bounce of moving there myself that I did. I guess I'm being hypocritical to have criticized Austria for a useless move. Anyhow, the Turk manages to handicap himself by ordering a useless support for Greece (IA cooperating now? Without any pre-arrangements? Pshaw!)... a much better move for him would have been F Bla S A Bul -> Rum, F Aeg -> Bul(sc). I guess he wanted to keep his fleets in a forward position, but he would have been better off trying to come to Moscow's rescue.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1908.

AUSTRIA

He could have retreated to Serbia and shown himself as wanting to defend equally against West and East. Another charming and quite clear 'SCREW YOU, ITALY!!' message.

FRANCE

I raise a Heineken in salute. The Frogs went down fighting and were my staunchest allies even if their aid was limited to harassing and stymieing my opponents. At least he got to see the infinitely silly British all but kicked out of their homeland.

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1908

AUSTRIA

Well, that's interesting. I'm curious to see what he'll try to do this turn... perhaps another run at Trieste? He's left Venice snug and safe.

ENGLAND

Yeesh. Come on, England... do something I don't see coming! Once again he doesn't factor the delaying value of leaving a forward unit intact. Yeah, it's only a half-year delay at best, but he could at least try something other than unconditional flight. I must have him totally demoralized.

GERMANY

Let's roll. I'm at 13 centers compared to 7 for Italy and 6 for Turkey, and with England all but crushed it's endgame time.

TURKEY

Okay, looks like Turkey is going to try and challenge Italy for the Med, rather than moving unreservedly to stop me. He'll regret it.

Movement results for Spring of 1909

AUSTRIA

Austria takes back Trieste once again, without really caring that the Italian might have a retreat to Serbia. Maybe he hoped the Turk would grab it, but the Sultan has other things on his mind. The army in Marseilles taunts the Italian with a hold order... also apparently declaring its neutrality in the GI conflict.

ENGLAND

Now he supports himself... I guess he was just waiting and waiting for that French army to die. And yet he still won't leave Brest!

GERMANY

My naval sweep is being deliberately slow to prevent England from even having the option of an eleventh hour retreat behind my lines. On land things are different and I'm looking to breach as many points of the stalemate line as possible while everyone's still occupied with Austria. Moscow falls, but not as easily as I'd hoped.

ITALY

Army Gascony SUPPORT Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Spain (south coast).
Fleet Albania -> Ionian Sea. (*bounce*)
Army Paris SUPPORT Army Gascony.
Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Spain (south coast).
Fleet Venice -> Apulia.
Army Trieste SUPPORT Turkish Army Bulgaria -> Serbia. (*void, dislodged*)
Army Tuscany -> Venice.

Paris supports Gascony, which strikes me as an odd move since Austria and I successfully coordinating an assault against it was unlikely. He should've supported Brest, also unnecessary but at least it would have reaffirmed his alliance with the English.

The rest of his moves are almost meaningless at this point, although he's trying to signal Turkey for an Austrian partition. Again, the Turk has better things to do.

RUSSIA

Oops! Looks like the bear still had fight in him! I should have attacked from St. Pete's, but I was worried about Moscow dislodging to retreat to Livonia, which would have provoked an unpleasant guessing game come Fall.

TURKEY

At the same time Russia makes his move, the Turk shows quite clearly that he's going to try to stop me with or without the others' help! Brushing aside Italy's fleet, he gets into the Ionian while simultaneously ignoring the Austrian front in order to advance his armies and put his fleet in position for uncuttable support for Russia in Sevastopol. I can't imagine he'll do so much as glance in Austria's direction in Fall... he knows where the true threat lies. Will Italy get the hint and disband his Trieste army rather than retreating it to Serbia? If everyone starts cooperating now they actually still have an excellent chance of stopping me cold.

Retreat orders for Spring of 1909.

GERMANY

I had my choice of retreating to Warsaw or Galicia... with my army in Silesia to cover Warsaw, Galicia is the far better choice. It looks like I may end up having to grab centers from Austria. Sorry pal, nothing personal. Of course, if Italy disbands to show his recognition of my threat and keep Austria healthy I'm sure Austria won't be averse towards supporting a Grand Alliance for a draw.

ITALY

Forget Austria and forget France, I have to say Italy by far is my best ally in this game. Even as the Hun hordes breathe down his neck, he continues the assault against a nation that could have supported him. True, Austria's moves up until now showed despairing suicide, but as soon as the Turk turned aside I would have noted that and gambled on Austria wanting to be part of a draw as long as he had hope he could be. Turkey reawakened that hope, and all Italy had to do was foster it... but nope, he takes the "clever" retreat to Serbia and probably again doesn't see the harm that causes. Does he realize yet that his stab of Austria was a mistake?

Movement results for Fall of 1909

AUSTRIA

Army Trieste SUPPORT Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Venice. (*cut*)
Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Venice. (*bounce*)
Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Trieste.
Army Marseilles SUPPORT German Army Burgundy -> Gascony. (*void, dislodged*)

You can almost hear Austria's weary sigh as Italy once again wrecks any chances for reconciliation. He organizes an excellent defense, which holds Trieste, and makes his pact with the Great Satan. People should realize that any power who they keep trying to eliminate is in no way shape or form going to work towards a draw... it benefits them nothing and their best option becomes only to make sure everyone else loses as well. To his infinite credit, Austria has not directly aided me yet... I'm sure the support order was just a message to the board that he's prepared to do so if Italy doesn't back off.

ENGLAND

Well, England finally slows me down a bit by bouncing Lon -> Eng. I've got MAO now, though, and his precious Brest is all but surrounded.

GERMANY

I pull the Piedmont sneak on Italy again, figuring if it worked for Austria it can work for me! It does. Meanwhile I also take Paris ahead of schedule. First Italy was exposing himself to unnecessary risk with his driving need to eliminate France... now the same is happening as he goes after Austria. Galicia -> Rumania keeps the Turk honest while I cover my Russian positions.

ITALY

Nasty little dogfight IA locked themselves into, eh wot? I wonder if Italy will blame Austria for not rolling over and dying when he was "supposed to." I accidentally cut off the Austrian army's retreat, too. Oopsie...

RUSSIA

I covered for this and for a supported move back into Moscow. Sorry Russia... that was a nice surprise attack in Ukraine but your days of aggression are now over.

TURKEY

Dang! Turkey is definitely on the ball here... he's bypassing any thought of snapping up Italy in order to lock me out of the Med, and as long as Italy and England don't hinder him he's going to pull it off! He might have been better off trying to do something with his armies, but taking Sevastopol could have failed and pissed off Russia and I left precious little room for him to maneuver against me. Besides that, Turkey has every right not to trust Italy to act for the greater good... better to shove Italy out of the way and do the stalemate legwork himself. Rumania's support is to at least try to signal Italy that taking Tunis is an unfortunate side effect of the need for speed, but it's just a formality with IA embroiled as they are.

Retreat orders for Fall of 1909.

ENGLAND

Big surprise. How appropriate that England should end the game as he played most of it, growing roots in his supply centers. Admittedly though, it's a good move as far as setting a stalemate whether England knows it or not.

ITALY

His only retreat. Again, this may be tricky to break, but army Piedmont gives me a much needed edge. Too bad England didn't mess up and try to retreat to Gascony as well, that would've been rich!

Ownership of supply centers:

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1909

GERMANY

I've got more than enough fleets already, especially with the Med about to be locked down. My plan is simple, but unfortunately far from a sure thing. I left Vienna and Brest intact while I pushed to forward positions, and also moved to compromise Marseilles. It's worked like a charm up until now... I'm currently at 15 SC's to Turkey's 7 and Italy's 6, and if I can just grab all three of the designated targets this coming year I win!

The Turk can lock me out of the Med, but he can't help Marseilles in time. And then I also saw Rome. If Turkey truly wants to lock down the Med he'll move Tun-WMed and Ion-Tun. The move I have planned will cause Gascony's fall no matter if Piedmont cuts support or not, so I might as well try for an even deeper penetration into the Italian peninsula-- I could get my attack on Marseilles and three units for an attack on Venice as well!

ITALY

Well, color me impressed. Italy seems to have read Turkey's moves correctly. Now... can they stop me in time?

RUSSIA

His final unit digs in in Sevastopol, where the Turk can no longer risk an attack and will have to give him support to hold. If things go to a draw he and England have at least assured themselves a part in it. Bleah.

TURKEY

Hmm, why the fourth fleet? I suppose to support WMed if I get into North Africa, but couldn't a fleet in Tunis do that? Maybe he's (justifiably) worried about Italy not being able to help hold the line.

Movement results for Spring of 1910

This has the potential to be Europe's last Spring free from German domination. Will Deutschland win out über Alles?

AUSTRIA

Austria is down to ordering mutual supports, but he still tries to offer the olive branch to Italy one last time after Italy's disband in Albania. Good show.

ENGLAND

Whoa. Suddenly England decides not to just lie down and die peacefully. I figured if anything he'd try to retake MAO and not bother with Picardy since I could easily convoy army Wales to Belgium. Now though I may have outsmarted myself by convoying Wales down to Gascony. This provokes an actual guessing game for Fall, blech.

GERMANY

Double blech. I got too fancy down South as well and Italy has split my peninsular expedition in twain. I can't possibly free up a unit to defend Belgium without weakening my attacks on Brest and Marseilles. On the plus side, at least I successfully surrounded Vienna... but if Austria moves to defend with Italy and/or Turkey cutting my supports it could fail easily. I hate all the bounces that occurred... Italy really surprised me by finally covering for Piedmont.

ITALY

Damn good moves, especially managing to coordinate with England. He might have been better off simply moving to bounce me from Piedmont rather than dislodge, but he had no idea I'd be moving rather than supporting to hold, I suppose. What's with the attack on Trieste? I guess he finds it impossible to believe that Austria might still forgive and forget, but it's preventing any chance of Austria moving to stop me from taking Vienna.

RUSSIA

Props to Russia for hanging in there! (TRANSLATION: Russia continues to play and add a good element to the game even though down to one unit. What a worthy gentleman he is...)

TURKEY

The move Russia supported would have been a good one for the Turk to have tried for... supporting Sevastopol to hold really wasn't necessary this phase. Ah well, he's got me safely stymied in the East. He also made some allowance for my move to Rome just in case Italy didn't have it covered. A move to Ukraine might have slowed me down some, but other than that these are all solid choices.

Retreat orders for Spring of 1910.

ITALY

Okay, everything's in place for Fall. The Turk's move to the Tyrhennian pretty much ends the hope of grabbing for Rome, but that's all right. Let's look at my planned targets:

Marseilles: I'll use Tuscany to attack Piedmont and cut support, use MAO to attack Spain(sc) and cut support, and attack with Burgundy supported by Gascony. Marseilles falls and there's nothing anyone can do about it, and if MAO or Tuscany get dislodged and/or destroyed so be it. They will have sacrificed nobly for the cause.

Brest: Paris attacks, supported by F Eng. Once again an assured capture.

Vienna: The most uncertain of all of them. This one is going to be a real judgment call and I'll have to correctly divine what people are going to do in the coming turn, based on their recent play and the history of the game. So let's see.

- Austria I expect will continue the holding pattern. Italy has shown no signs of wanting to bury the hatchet and keeps plinking at Trieste... nor has the Turk shown support for anyone except Italy and Russia. Austria was dragged down by the jackals surrounding him-- I fault him nothing for just looking to himself at this point and leaving them to fend for themselves against me. Just in case though, I'll order a support. Because I can.

- Italy is a wildcard. He might try to protect Marseilles and Rome, or might not. Would he move to Tyrolia? Unlikely, but he caught me by surprise this last turn. He might even try to support himself in, if he recognizes that Marseilles is doomed.

- Turkey played more cautiously than he needed to last turn. Now any move of the army in Rumania sets that province at risk during a crucial Fall turn. Is it also possible he thinks Sil -> Boh last turn was just to shore up my frontlines, and that I'm somehow too sensitive to attack my buddy Austria? Naaah. It doesn't matter though, I have this gut hunch he's not going to move Rum -> Gal, for whatever insane reason. Maybe the English move to Picardy makes him complacent that I'll either lose Belgium or not be able to get one of my targeted centers this year? I'll order the attack from Tyrolia, with Munich following up.

"And what about Belgium?", you may ask. Well, it was inconvenient that the English fleet slipped through the cracks of my otherwise impenetrable German advance, but after careful consideration I can only reply, "What about it?" Even if I lose Belgium I'll get at least one new build this year, and possibly more if Tuscany or MAO get destroyed. Between that and my units behind the front I'm pretty sure I can hunt him down eventually, or at least sweep up after him and make sure he stays at one SC while I press on in the South. It may end up getting me stalemated, but so would derailing everything to defend against him! I have the chance to WIN, right NOW, as long as I stiffen my sinews and let the English gnat do as he will. I began this game with ballsy moves... let's see if I can end it with one.

That resolved, I have a long draught of bier, and enter my orders. Vorwarts, mein herrs! Für das Vaterland!

Movement results for Fall of 1910

AUSTRIA

Yep. Plus he even cut Apulia's support for Army Venice. And why not? If you can't join 'em, beat 'em. Or at least try to see that they're beaten.

ENGLAND

I stared him down and he swerved. Just as I thought, the Englishman didn't have the stones to carry through with his Belgian threat.

[ GERMANY'S MOVES AT END OF LIST ]

ITALY

Italy circles the wagons, and I must say I feel a certain pleasure in having reduced him to such a state of paralyzed fear. I hadn't even really thought about taking Venice. Oh, and in an act showing he still really doesn't get it even at the end, he once again propositions Turkey to take down Austria.

RUSSIA

What, no support to the Ukraine this time? Ah well... I had to order an attack on Sevastopol just in case Turkey got weird, but no dice. Kudos to the Tsar for sticking it out.

TURKEY

He slides into Rome and does the right thing by supporting Spain to hold, not realizing England was going to do the same. On the East side, he sits as still as my hunch predicted, and still won't lend Austria any show of friendship.

GERMANY

Game, set, match. England's failure to follow through on Belgium combines with my success in capturing all three targeted centers to end this little bit of history. I even managed to set up more failsafes at the last minute. F NAO -> MAO supported by F Iri ensures that F MAO can move to cut Spain(sc)'s support and still be safe from a supported Por -> MAO, Spa(sc) S Por -> MAO counterattack, due to the "beleaguered garrison" clause. Galicia -> Budapest instead of Gal S Tyr -> Vie ensures that even if Turkey moves Rum -> Gal it won't have any effect. Plus it guards against an eleventh hour defense from Austria by causing support for Tri -> Vie to be cut (I expected that the Italians would still bang their heads against Trieste and thus inadvertantly cut any support for Bud -> Vie).

As it turns out I needn't have gotten so complicated, as all my opponents stood stock still in their positions and England chickened out from Belgium. The only move that could have saved the day besides that would have been Austria doing A Tri S A Bud -> Vie, but he had no idea Italy might finally stop attacking. Even then, Italy's alternate move with his army was to signal for a Turkish attack on Austria!

Austria could have been a great ally for IT as they fought for a draw, but neither country ever expressed more than neutrality towards the Archduke despite Austria's obvious pleas. As a result they lose-- and they deserve to.

FINAL POSITIONS

Ownership of supply centers:

Austria: 2 Supply centers, 3 Units: Removes 1 unit.
England: 1 Supply center, 2 Units: Removes 1 unit.
France: 0 Supply centers, 0 Units: Builds 0 units.
Germany: 18 Supply centers, 15 Units: Builds 3 units. (* VICTORY!! *)
Italy: 4 Supply centers, 5 Units: Removes 1 unit.
Russia: 1 Supply center, 1 Unit: Builds 0 units.
Turkey: 8 Supply centers, 7 Units: Builds 1 unit.

The game is over. Thank you for playing.

EPILOGUE

Congratulations if you made it this far... you've shown yourself to either be a true student of The Game, or someone with far too much time on their hands. Or likely both, but who am I to talk? I wrote the thing!

In analysis, I would say I had a rather easy time of things in chaos2, and a good bit of luck to accompany my strategic planning. England can be forgiven his early concentrations on France and trust in me, but to abandon the North Sea just as I was taking Russia out of the Scandinavian / St. Petersburg picture was a foolish move I wouldn't expect to be repeated regularly in games. Italy stabbed Austria right at the time when a coalition should have been forming to stop me. My enemies seemed constantly at odds with each other, and I never had to face down skilled, determined opposition or united fronts.

Does this invalidate the premise of the Centrifuge being a viable opening? Not in my opinion, or I would never have published the article. Several of the predictions involved in the strategy bore true in the opening of the game. The opening move to Prussia indirectly sabotaged Russia's efforts towards Austria, allowing the strong Austrian player to take advantage and keep RT off-balance. Munich was safe from the Burgundy army, which preferred the move to Belgium. Western neutrality by Germany led to an EF war that secured the border better than any number of the Kaiser's armies. Grabbing Germany's traditional neutrals kept the 'vultures' from the gates. And of course the big one... despite moving armies Northward, Russia swallowed whole the 1901 fake-out, to the point of an abortive attack on England.

Lacking the EOG's of the other countries involved, I cannot say for sure what their own viewpoints and motivations were, and thus the 'big picture' is incomplete. And somewhere along the line I lost the game summary which listed their names and email addresses, so unless they contact me as Russia did we shall, alas, remain in the dark.

There is one big advantage to the delay in this follow-up's publishing, which is that there has been some time for the opening to disseminate into the Diplomacy community at large. Feedback to me personally has been scarce, but here's some personal encounters so far.

Diplomacy World E-mail Masters Championships '99:

I put my money where my mouth was and risked a Centrifuge opening for my game in this tournament (M9947). The diplomatic situation seemed to favor it, even though there was almost no chance it would go unnoticed. First of all, I was dealing with a press game. Second of all, metagaming was fully legal by tournament rules. Members of a team were allowed and encouraged to advise one another, and beyond that it was possible for any of the hundreds on the chat board for the tournament to view and comment on games in progress. The possibility of keeping intents a surprise regressed towards infinitely small. But still, why not take the risk? Did I not crow about the flexibility the opening provided? Why not at least start with it, and then carry through or switch tacks as the situation dictated? In short, did I have the cojones to attempt to prove the validity of the Centrifuge option, in not only a press game, but in what was possibly the most nightmarish environment for trying to pull it off!

To my glee, two other Germany players in the tourney also went forward with their own attempts. My advantage was being on a board relatively overlooked because it had no 'big hitters' as far as the community was concerned. The Germany in M9935 was not so lucky, his board was being watched like a hawk and people actually posted to the general chats wondering why on Earth he had made such a brain-dead 'surefire loser' move in 1901. Others chimed in with none of them recognizing what was going on-- I must say, I was surprised to see how many people actually don't read the Pouch. Maybe I had a chance after all!

Alas, someone finally did post that they vaguely remembered something called a 'Centrifuge' which the opening might be linked to. I couldn't resist, I posted a reply as myself to that innocently asking 'Centrifuge? I don't understand, what is this Centrifuge you speak of?' To my amusement, the poster replied back with an explanation for me that somewhere he'd read about it, and proceeded to explain the basics as he remembered them. Nobody gets me--

Anyhow, I regret to say that my two brave compatriots were shut down in a hurry. In M9935 Italy (whose team did their homework a bit better than the chat board fellow above) sent a link for my article to England, which England used to his full advantage. Of course, they both ended up eliminated or almost so in the end, but they clearly demonstrated my forecast of 'whistle blowing' making a press Centrifuge very difficult.

In my own game I know Austria was aware of what I was doing (he was part of the same team as M9935's Italy), but if others knew they never mentioned it or really played for it. Russia might have been tipped off, since he provided an interesting study of moves that can short-circuit the strategy. One is moving an army in Warsaw or Galicia to Silesia, which threatens Munich and Berlin and thus severely limits German mobility. Another is building F StP(sc) at the end of 1901, which can combine with his other Northern fleet to stymie any thoughts of the push up through Bothnia. A caveat to Russian players however: both of these defenses came at the expense of letting Austria in to rampage through the Russian homelands, which led to Russia's eventual elimination. Russia in M9947 chose not to care, but those of you interested in coaxing a six center 1902 Russia to something other than a swift demise might wish to find a middle ground.

Anyhow, after 1901 I had to abandon the strategy, but I am happy to report that it is not a 'surefire' loser. I ended up in an alliance with England that performed very strongly, and was up to 9 centers before an English stab undid my chances. I must say that famous or not, England and Austria were two of the toughest opponents I have ever faced. But I digress-- the end result seems to be that the Centrifuge is extremely risky in a Press game. Attempt it at your own risk, be prepared to abandon it at a moment's notice, and above all don't do it if you don't feel diplomatically confident enough to defend your borders with words alone-- something I found myself required to do more than once.

Game 'molten' on USEF

Molten was a nopress gunboat game where I tried out another pet idea of mine, making an early surprise attack on France as Italy. This sort of opening is already listed as a 'Western Lepanto', but I didn't discover that until later on.

Imagine my surprise to see some very familiar opening moves from the German player! Then I got a message quite innocently sent to me from that player confirming that he was trying out my opening in 'molten' and would keep me updated on the results if I liked.

It was completely accidental, but of course this sort of contact is forbidden. Telling him as little about my involvement as possible specifically, I informed him that I was also playing in the game (not specifically which country except to say it didn't directly involve him) and we should cease any discussions until it was completed.

That was the end of things and the German player and I never spoke again. Technically I suppose we might have contacted the master right then and advise that the game be terminated, but it was Spring 1901 and as long as no more contact was made I didn't have a problem. Neither did the German, and so we carried on and I watched his progress with interest as I made my own planned assault against France.

To my slight delight, but mostly my dire embarrassment, this game ended in a solo for the German player at my direct expense. I would love to claim I threw the game to him for self-aggrandizement of my opening (despite the censure such would no doubt bring), but it's not true. I was just a moron who misconstructed what I had thought to be an unbreachable stalemate line, and ate a loss as a result of that incompetence. Like some Diplomatic Doctor Frankenstein, I gaped, stupefied as I was destroyed by my own creation.

The Final Thoughts

As stated before, personal feedback to me on results has been scarce. Right now it would seem that a pure Centrifuge is a likely stillbirth in press games (though it does not necessarily entail destruction). Conversely, in nopress games it has now led twice to German victories. I encourage anyone who has finished a game where they played or witnessed a Centrifuge opening to contact me with the results, since the above analysis is based on about five games-- hardly a good sized sample. But for now, gentle and not-so-gentle readers, I will bring this article to a close before it eats up every last bit of space available on the DipPouch server. Even Germany has to stop expanding sometime.

Danke schön und guten Abend!

Clinton Wolf (cwolf2@earthlink.net)

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