Caissa Annotates a No-Press Game

Part 2: The Endgame

By Paul D. Windsor

This is the second half of my article reviewing the game "alicew", a no-press gunboat game for experienced players organized from the DipPouch queue. The first half of this article can be found in the last issue of the Pouch. If you missed that, but find yourself here, you really need to read Part 1 first.

In the interim, I have heard from the player of the French position in this game, Thomas Mittlebach. I am forced to admit that, based on how this game played out, I was rather unkind to France in my EOG. [Readers who are impatient to know why can skip straight to the final turn.] So unkind, in fact, that Thomas told me in his recent contact that I had embarrassed and frightened him out of sending his own EOG. Upon hearing that, it was my turn to be embarrassed. I'd like to take this opportunity to publicly apologize to Thomas for using the EOG to vent my spleen. It was inappropriate and I apologize.

Thomas has also offered some feedback on why he played the game the way that he did, and I have tried to incorporate that into my game analysis from this point forward. My thanks to Thomas for transcending my rudeness and for taking the time to write me about this.

Spring, 1909

England puts up his best tactics to the last and keeps France out of Edinburgh for one more year.

France: A Mar - Pie (*bounce*)
France: F Lvp - Cly
France: F WES - Tun
France: F Eng - Lon
France: A Hol S German A Kie
France: A Wal - Lvp (*bounce*)
France: F Spa/sc S F Bre - MAO
France: A Par - Bur
France: F Bre - MAO

Since he is behind in mobilization, France shrewdly seeks to slow my aquisition of German centers while he attempts to pick up the last English center and some tempi. France also achieves this game's first bona fide back rank maurader in the person of the fleet in Tunis. He has a 50% chance of keeping Tunis in the Fall and, if he does, Turkey's progress will be slowed, not only by the temporary loss of a Supply Center, but also by the need to corral and destroy the invader.

Germany: A Kie S A Den (*cut*)
Germany: F Swe - BAL
Germany: A Den S A Kie (*cut*)

Italy: A Nap - Rom (*bounce*)

Russia: A Mun - Ruh
Russia: F Nor S F BOT - Swe
Russia: A Sil - Mun
Russia: A Tyr S A Sil - Mun
Russia: F Ska - Den (*bounce*)
Russia: F BOT - Swe
Russia: A Ber - Kie (*bounce*)
Russia: F StP/sc - Fin
Russia: A War - Gal
Russia: A Mos - Ukr

This is the first turn in several years that I've actually outpaced Turkey in tempo. My two new armies are heading to the Turkish front to even up the force influence over my SC's there. I'm very much hoping that Turkey does not see this as a stab. In reality, Turkey has very little left to do with the armies he's built at this point, other than attack me. He should see that, and he should see that I see that. In the north, I've focused on improving the positioning of my armies and securing Scandanavia with my fleets. I anticipated that France would be propping up the dying German, which is why I didn't make a play for Kiel this turn.

Turkey: A Ven - Pie (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Rom S F ADR - Apu (*cut*)
Turkey: F TYS - WES
Turkey: F NAf S F TYS - WES
Turkey: F ADR - Apu
Turkey: A Tri - Ven (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Gre - Alb
Turkey: F ION - TYS
Turkey: F Smy - AEG
Turkey: A Con - Bul

Much to my relief, Turkey continues to keep a non-threatening profile with his armies. He's run headlong into French forces now, and his sprint accross the board will be arrested for a while. With Naples a sure thing in the Fall, he shouldn't be particularly concerned about losing Tunis. Turkey could choose to temporarily sacrifice the SC for improved position. If Turkey gets fleets into North Africa, Western Med and Gulf of Lyon, there is tremendous pressure on Marseilles, Spain and the Mid-Atlantic Ocean. Letting go of Tunis should be worth the opportunity to push a fleet past Gibraltar.

Fall, 1909

England's shrewd defense keeps him alive for another year. In Yorkshire, his army can influence all three English home SC's and keeps two French units occupied simply standing it off.

France: A Mar - Pie
France: F Cly - Edi (*bounce*)
France: F Tun - TYS (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: F Lon - NTH
France: A Hol S German A Kie (*void*)
France: A Wal - Lvp
France: F Spa/sc - WES
France: A Bur - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F MAO S F Spa/sc - WES

I don't understand France not attempting to save the fleet in Tunis which, lacking a valid retreat, was destroyed. F Tun-Wes, supported by the fleets in Mid-Atlantic and Spain would have stood off the Turkish attack. The guess was whether to attack Western Med or North Africa. It was almost certain that Turkey would not attempt to capture Tunis from Tyrhennian Sea because he could not rely on the cuttable supports of his other two fleets. Thus, France had virtually a 50/50 chance of standing off the Turkish attack and capturing Tunis. The seeming spatial advantage he gains with his moves (occupying Western Med) is illusory, as France does not control the space that he occupies. In the north, France continues to try to prop up Germany (though the German is not cooperating) and grabs the all-important North Sea province while I am preoccupied with capturing German centers.

Germany: A Kie - Ber
Germany: F BAL S A Kie - Ber
Germany: A Den - Kie (*bounce, dislodged*)

Italy: A Nap - Rom (*bounce, dislodged*)

The dislodged German and Italian armies were both destroyed.

Russia: A Ruh - Kie (*bounce*)
Russia: F Nor S F Fin - Swe
Russia: A Mun S A Ber (*cut*)
Russia: A Tyr S A Mun (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: F Ska S F Swe - Den
Russia: F Swe - Den
Russia: A Ber S A Ruh - Kie (*dislodged*)
Russia: F Fin - Swe
Russia: A Gal - Bud
Russia: A Ukr - Rum (*bounce*)

So little of Germany left, but a surprising number of choices left to him and no way to account for them all. I'm annoyed at only picking up one of his centers (thanks to French interference). I'm also concerned that his remaining two units have relatively unobstructed paths to my rear. I had considered and rejected the idea of ordering F Nwy-Nth, because I wanted to focus on ensuring the capture of Sweden. The presence of a French fleet adjacent to two centers I hold and one that I'm targeting, however, makes me wish that I'd given a higher priority to positional matters than centers. My dislodged armies retreat to Vienna and Silesia.

Turkey: A Ven - Tyr
Turkey: A Rom S F Apu - Nap
Turkey: F WES - Tun
Turkey: F NAf S F WES - Tun
Turkey: F Apu - Nap
Turkey: A Tri S A Ven - Tyr
Turkey: A Alb - Ser
Turkey: F TYS S F WES - Tun
Turkey: F AEG - ION
Turkey: A Bul - Rum (*bounce*)

I'm very disappointed with Turkey's reaction to my moves. I can understand his ejecting my army from Tyrolia. If he were intending to demand security for his centers from my advancing armies, that would be reasonable. But to attack Rumania is not reasonable. It's an over-reaction to what I've done. I've attacked no center of his and do not threaten to do so. His forces in that region outnumber my own. His security did not require an attack on Rumania. Elsewhere, the cleanup operation against Austria and Italy is now complete, and Turkey can now deploy a force advantage against both France and Russia in each theater of operation. Turkey's failure to capitalize on his earlier opportunity to stab me notwithstanding, he is still in the driver's seat. His one weakness is the French army in Piedmont. If Turkey becomes too obsessed with the Russian threat, that army could slip behind his lines.

In the EOG's, Turkey wrote that he believed that I had stabbed him too soon. I replied that, from my perspective, Turkey stabbed me, not the other way around. Turkey evidently felt an unquestionable sense of belief that for Russia to move to occupy his own centers was a stab. The paranoia of Dippers is evidently boundless. When I intvited Turkey to go back and review 1909 and tell me exactly who attacked who's centers first and, therefore, tell me who stabbed whom, I recieved no reply. The comment in Turkey's EOG was interesting, though, in that it indicated that his mindset was that we would crush France together and seek to stab each other only at the very end. Given his apparent definition of "stab", however, it's unlikely I could have prevailed in such a scenario.

Winter, 1909

This was a difficult build for me to decide upon. Turkey's over-reaction to the presence of my armies strongly indicated he would build a fleet, but I assumed that fleet would be built in Constantinople. To see it spring to life in Ankara was bitterly disappointing, as there seems little hope that Turkey will second guess his conclusions or the policies that stem from them. I foreswore the build in Sevastapol as I considered it my last try at convincing the Turk to resume his formerly peacful policies. Plus, I really did not want to chase after a German army that had snuck into Warsaw.

Tempo Analysis

Italy's epitaph is wasted tempi. The stranded army in Tunis, the vacillating fleet strategy, the northern army indecisively holding in Venice; it all added up to a stagnant, non-strategy that predictably got the Italian nowhere. Blaming his plight on the senseless Austrian stab or on being poor powerless Italy would be a cop out. Italy earned his elimination with weak play.

This could have been a breakthrough year for France, had he saved that fleet in Tunis. That would have earned him an extra build, stopped Turkey's advance, denied Turkey a build, saved France an investment of three tempi and generally put France on a par with the other two major powers. As we observed, however, France did not even try to save the fleet. Failing to follow up on all of these potential gains is going to cost France dearly.

For myself, this is the first year in several that I've surpassed Turkey in tempo advancement. This is largely due to Turkey deciding to backtrack and fight on a second front.

Evaluation

Turkey's build is going to give him a permanent advantage on the southern front. He'll occupy the Black Sea, and from there he'll apply leverage against Rumania and Sevastapol for the indefinate future. I realize that, in a long term sense, I'll be helpless to keep Sevastapol, Rumania, Budapest and Vienna, if Turkey remains in control of Black Sea and is a persistent and accurate attacker. I can offset those losses somewhat by winning the last two German SC's and I should be able to hold a line against Turkey. In the north, my four fleets outgun France's three fleets north of Gibraltar, so his occupation of the North Sea should only be a temporary advantage. There is little possibility that France can prevail against my numerous armies either, especially when backed by my fleet advantage. Meanwhile, France will also have everything he can handle holding back Turkey in the south.

I think that converting my advantage against France into a solo is probably out of the question, given my weaknesses against Turkey, but a three-way draw is very likely after England and Germany are eliminated. The key is recognition of that fact by France. His behavior to this point has been consistently hostile, but not necessarily unreasonable. If he decides to press his luck against me in the north when I begin to lose SC's to Turkey, however, he risks allowing a Turkish victory. I'd like to think that he would recognize the danger that Turkey is very likely to get to 18 before himself.

Spring, 1910

England: A Yor - Lvp (*bounce*)

France: A Pie - Ven
France: F Cly - Edi
France: F NTH - Lon
France: A Hol - Bel
France: A Lvp S F Cly - Edi (*cut*)
France: F WES H
France: A Bur - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F MAO S F WES
France: F Mar - LYO

This is a weak set of orders. France commits three units to containing a single English army. At the same time, he attempts to guard Belgium and Holland with a single, backpedalling army and continues an unlikely and unsupported attack on Munich. He also supports his southern fleets in place, rather than trying to bounce the advance of Turkish reinforcements through the Tyrhennian Sea. None of these strategies do much to advance the French cause in this game. I would have been tempted to see the backpedalling of his fleet and army in the north as a peaceful gesture, except the continued attack on Munich indicates that France indicates otherwise.

Germany: A Ber S F BAL - Kie (*cut*)
Germany: F BAL - Kie (*bounce*)

Russia: A Ruh - Kie
Russia: F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Mun S A Ruh - Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A Vie S A Bud (*cut*)
Russia: F Ska - Swe
Russia: F Den S A Ruh - Kie
Russia: A Sil - Ber (*bounce*)
Russia: F Swe - BOT
Russia: A Bud S A Vie (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: A Ukr - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: A War - Pru

I gave Germany too much credit with these orders (I expected to bounce in Gulf of Bothnia) and wound up backpedalling myself. The good news is Germany is dead. Being in the North Sea is also pretty good news. Since France has to hold his fleets to kill the English army, I should be there in the Fall, too. The bad news is that my southern SC's are set to fall like dominoes. There was no way to save Budapest and the army there retreats to Galicia.

Turkey: A Tyr - Vie (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Rom S F TYS - Tus (*void*)
Turkey: F Tun S F NAf
Turkey: F NAf S F Tun
Turkey: F Nap - TYS (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tri - Bud
Turkey: A Ser S A Tri - Bud
Turkey: F TYS - Nap (*bounce*)
Turkey: F ION - ADR
Turkey: A Bul - Rum (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Ank - BLA

Apparently, Turkey changed his orders, but neglected to change the order for the fleet in Tyrhennian Sea. France catches a huge break on this as Turkey essentially wastes the season on the French front. Too bad for me he didn't screw up his orders against Budapest. Turkey isn't backing off of his new course one inch. He correctly executes the win of Budapest and is poised over Rumania, with threats against Vienna and Sevastapol that must be taken seriously, as well.

There is one bit of hope for me in slowing the advance of Turkish troops. The French army in Venice is a potential back rank invader against Turkey. I'm hoping that France will see that. I'm also hoping that France will see that holding in Venice is hopeless and make a break for Trieste. I'm guessing that there's a very good chance that my army in Vienna will not be attacked this fall. If I support France into Trieste, that could lead to some interesting results . . .

Fall, 1910

England: A Yor - Lon (*bounce, dislodged*)

The army's only line of retreat is Wales, so England is out.

France: A Ven - Tri
France: F Edi S A Lvp - Yor
France: F Lon - NTH (*bounce*)
France: A Bel - Hol (*bounce*)
France: A Lvp - Yor
France: F WES - TYS (*bounce*)
France: A Bur - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F MAO - NAf (*bounce*)
France: F LYO S F WES - TYS

To quote Marv Albert: Yes!! France orders the attack on Trieste, which succeeds owing to my support. France's combination of dislodging the English army while ordering the evacuation of London is not unlike his 1904 maneuver of attacking the English army in Picardy without covering Paris. It succeeds more on luck than merit. France not only makes tactical mistakes, but he repeats the same ones. I'm making a note of that. On the plus side for France, he does attack the Tyrhennian Sea this Fall and holds back the Turkish reinforcements as a result.

Germany: A Ber S F BAL - Kie (*cut, dislodged*)
Germany: F BAL - Kie (*bounce, dislodged*)

The army in Berlin is destroyed, while the fleet retreats to Livonia, eliminating Germany also this turn.

Russia: A Kie S F NTH - Hol (*cut*)
Russia: F NTH - Hol (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mun S French A Bur (*void*)
Russia: A Vie S French A Ven - Tri
Russia: F Swe S F BOT - BAL
Russia: F Den S A Kie
Russia: A Sil S A Pru - Ber
Russia: F BOT - BAL
Russia: A Gal S A Vie
Russia: A Ukr - Sev
Russia: A Pru - Ber

I hope that France sees the message in these moves. True, I attack Holland, but I also support him into Trieste. I needed a build more than he needed two. Had I gotten it, I could have thrown up a wall in front of Turkey that held Sevastapol and Vienna for a good long while, without compromising my position elsewhere. The friendly support to the French army in Burgandy is meant to reinforce the notion that I'd prefer peace. The attack on Holland fails, but with the French army in Trieste, the Turkish armies in Budapest, Serbia and Rumania suddenly become static, overburdened defenders and cannot keep plowing forward into Russia. I covered Sevastapol because I became overly fearful of the impact that an army convoyed there would have on my position. I should have defended the more obvious and likely attack on Rumania. Had I done so, I could have built in Sevastapol, which would have completely ended the Turkish threat on this turn. I played too defensively and payed the price.

Turkey: A Tyr - Ven
Turkey: A Rom S A Tyr - Ven
Turkey: F Tun S F Nap - TYS
Turkey: F NAf S F Tun (*cut*)
Turkey: F Nap - TYS (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bud S A Bul - Rum
Turkey: A Ser S A Bud
Turkey: F TYS - Tus
Turkey: F ADR - Tri (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bul - Rum
Turkey: F BLA S A Bul - Rum

These are almost exactly the orders I predicted for Turkey. The sole exception is that I would have reversed the role of the two armies in capturing Venice. It's true that the support of the army in Rome could not be broken, but the result is to remove one army from the Russian front, while leaving the other army completely out of play. The resulting placement of the armies is anti-positional. Better to have taken a chance on the support from Tyrolia being cut.

Winter, 1910

With his build, Turkey aims straight at the weak end of my line. France evens up his fleet force disparity in the north and adds a fleet to his southern forces as well, though he is still outgunned by Turkey in the Med.

Tempo Analysis

Not a stellar year for me. I've played too passively and it shows. I've done no more than hold my own, while others improved their tempo, position and force. The elimination of England and Germany this year ought to shake me out of my doldrums. Each of them faltered by playing passively at critical junctures. I shouldn't let that object lesson go unnoted.

Evaluation

My line against Turkey is very weak. If it weren't for the French army in Trieste, I wouldn't have much hope of holding anything south of Warsaw and Moscow in the upcoming year. I'm hoping for a little cooperation from France. I intend to seriously shift my army firepower to the Turkish front, subtracting force influence from the French front to do so. Hopefully, France will see that attacking me while Turkey is in a position to storm into Russia proper is playing with fire and he won't try to take advantage.

Spring, 1911

France: A Tri - Tyr (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: F Edi S F Lon - NTH
France: F Lon - NTH
France: A Bel - Hol
France: A Yor H
France: F WES - NAf
France: A Bur - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F MAO S F WES - NAf
France: F LYO - WES (*bounce*)
France: F Bre - Eng
France: F Mar - LYO (*bounce*)

France retakes the North Sea, as expected, and his play in the north has the capacity for more activity now that England is finally gone. France scores a big coup with the destruction of the Turkish fleet in North Africa. Turkey's push in the Med has been stopped cold with the loss of force and spatial influence represented by that forward unit. Getting that unit to that province was a costly investment in tempi that is now lost. The attacks on Tyrolia and Munich this season make me especially nervous. I did not expect Vienna to be open for a retreat by the dislodged French army. Now it seems certain that France will retreat to Vienna, but he doesn't, retreating instead to Albania. Could it be France has changed his strategy? His retreat to Albania creates huge problems for Turkey of a classic type regarding allowing a back rank marauder. Turkey can't retake Budapest and protect Greece at the same time. If he gets too aggressive, he could also easily put Rumania at risk.

Russia: A Kie - BAL - Lvn
Russia: F NTH - NWG
Russia: A Mun - Tyr (*bounce*)
Russia: A Vie - Bud
Russia: F Swe - Nor
Russia: F Den - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Boh
Russia: F BAL C A Kie - Lvn
Russia: A Gal S A Vie - Bud
Russia: A Sev - Ukr
Russia: A Ber - Mun (*bounce*)

There was too much Turkish force influence arrayed against Sevastapol to save it. I'm aiming to seal off the advance of Turkish armies by occupying Ukraine and Moscow. The Turkish army in Armenia could become trapped at the edge of the board, making Turkey's last build a waste of force. Convoying the army from Kiel, rather than Berlin, is another deliberate signal to France that I'm looking for peace between us. Despite all of the successful movements, my net tempo count this turn is -1. Nevertheless, the result is a dramatic improvement in the positioning of more than half of my forces. I am now applying equal force against the North Sea, am contesting control of border provinces from Tyrolia to Ukraine and should be able to resist the advance of French armies if it comes to that.

Turkey: A Ven - Tri
Turkey: A Rom - Ven
Turkey: F Tun - WES (*bounce*)
Turkey: F NAf S F Tun - WES (*dislodged*)
Turkey: F Nap - TYS
Turkey: A Bud - Vie (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Tus - LYO (*bounce*)
Turkey: F ADR S A Ven - Tri
Turkey: A Rum - Sev
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum - Sev
Turkey: A Ank - Arm

I count Turkey at -5 tempi for this turn, mostly owing to the destruction of his forward fleet in North Africa. His dislodged army retreats to Rumania. He's been stopped in the Med and, though he's in Sevastapol, he'll advance no further into Russia either. The force influence of his army in Armenia and his fleet in the Black Sea is wasted, as those units are out of play now, unable to project their force offensively. On the bright side, Turkey has finally managed to get his army from Rome to someplace where it has a useful influence and his units are generally well clustered and coordinated, concentrating their force effect upon useful areas of the board.

Fall, 1911

France: A Alb - Gre
France: F Edi S F NTH
France: F NTH C A Yor - Bel
France: A Hol - Kie (*bounce*)
France: A Yor - NTH - Bel
France: F NAf S F LYO - WES
France: A Bur - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F MAO S F LYO - WES
France: F LYO - WES
France: F Eng S F NTH
France: F Mar - LYO (*bounce*)

France completes a very productive year. He's very nearly got optimal unit placement at this point and he has acheived basic parity with his competitors in terms of force, tempo and spatial control. I assumed that convoy was coming. It makes me nervous, nonetheless. France now has a one unit edge against me in the land forces facing off north of Switzerland. If France tries to push that advantage, the only way I'll be able to meet that play is by pulling forces off of the Turkish line, which are barely adequate as it is. France's aggressive tactics in Germany leave me wondering if his choice not to retreat to Vienna really represents a change in strategy.

Russia: A Lvn - Mos
Russia: F NWG S French F NTH
Russia: A Mun S A Ber - Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A Bud S A Ukr - Rum (*cut*)
Russia: F Nor S F NWG
Russia: F Den S A Ber - Kie
Russia: A Boh - Vie
Russia: F BAL - Swe
Russia: A Gal S A Bud
Russia: A Ukr - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: A Ber - Kie

I played to defend Budapest, guessing that the psychology of the typical Dipper is to try to win back lost SC's. In this case, the guess paid off, as Turkey attacked Budapest. The remainder of my moves simply finish the repositioning of my forces. The friendly support for France is seeking to reinforce the notion that we should be playing together to contain Turkey, which should stabilize the game into a three way draw.

Turkey: A Tri - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Ven - Tri (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Tun S F TYS - WES
Turkey: F TYS - WES (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Rum S A Tri - Bud (*cut*)
Turkey: A Ser S A Tri - Bud
Turkey: F Tus - LYO (*bounce*)
Turkey: F ADR - ION
Turkey: A Sev - Ukr (*bounce*)
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)

I think it was a mistake to attempt a speculative recapture of Budapest, when it was absolutely certain that France would be going for Greece. The need to order A Ven-Tri as a follow-up to the attack on Budapest underscores the nature of Turkey's problem. The back rank marauder is undermining his ability to effectively position his forces. He should have been putting positioning ahead of SC's. For example, moving into Tyrolia, attacking Ukraine with support, convoying the army from Armenia to Rumania and bouncing the French army out of Greece were all ideas to consider that had more positional impact than recapturing Budapest (or worse, as happened here, failing to recapture Budapest). At any rate, the correct way to recapture Budapest was to use the army in Rumania to cut any potential support of the army in Galicia. Turkey's attempt failed because he allowed me to negate his army in Rumania by cutting it's support.

Winter, 1911

Tempo Analysis

France has another tempo successful year, while Turkey's is a tempo disaster. Not coincidentally, France's position in the Med is much improved over a year ago. My own tempo count for 1911 is deceiving. The disposition of my forces is much improved over the end of 1910. France's tempo count is also somewhat deceiving. The army in Greece accounts for one fourth of France's tempi and it seems inevitable that army eventually will be removed from the board.

Evaluation

Thanks to France's army in Greece, I've been given time to defend myself against Turkey. I've now got a solid line of units stretching in an arc from Moscow at one end to Norway at the other, with Munich at the top of the arc. There's a disturbing hole in my line at Tyrolia, but so far, Turkey has been slow to recognize that weakness.

Still, I'm troubled. The French-Turkish front in the Mediterranean is likely to remain static for years. Eventually (likely this year), the French army in Greece will die. After that, Turkey will be able to commit six armies against my five south of Switzerland, while France will enjoy a one unit advantage north of Switzerland. Unless peace breaks out (not likely), I could start to get steadily pushed back on all fronts and my best efforts won't stop that from happening.

Spring, 1912

France: A Gre - Ser
France: F Edi S F NTH
France: F NTH H
France: A Hol S A Bel - Ruh
France: A Bel - Ruh
France: F NAf S F WES
France: A Bur S A Bel - Ruh
France: F MAO - Spa/nc
France: F WES S F Mar - LYO (*cut*)
France: F Eng S F NTH
France: F Mar - LYO (*bounce*)

So much for peace with France. He means to press his advantage and see what happens. I resolve that it won't be anything good. This can never be a rational course of action in an evenly balanced three way dynamic. The defending player should never reward the aggressor with victory for this plan. I'll commit whatever resources I must to stopping France's drive, and if that swings the game to Turkey, c'est la vie. The order for the fleet to move to the north coast of Spain must have been a typo. That's the only explanation for it.

This is the point where it is important to reveal what the French player recently communicated to me: he was unaware that voting for a draw was a possibility in a gunboat no-press game. He's trying to press his advantage at this point, simply because he is unaware that a draw is a possible outcome and that playing for a draw is an option. Even players who play these no-press games with abandon and spurn the draw, however, should still account for the psychological effect of their attack on the defender and factor it into their plans. At this stage of the game, no plan can be counted as sound which does not clearly lead to victory.

Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F NWG S F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Mun - Ruh (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bud - Rum
Russia: F Nor - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: F Den S F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Vie - Tri (*bounce*)
Russia: F Swe - Ska
Russia: A Gal S A Bud - Rum
Russia: A Ukr S A Bud - Rum
Russia: A Kie - Ruh (*bounce*)

Since I'm trying to convince France to play nice, this attempt to occupy the North Sea is probably too aggressive. I didn't want to get caught by a move to Helgoland Bight, however, and I figured that I would only actually make it into North Sea if France tried something of that sort. I tried to protect Ruhr with a self bounce, since there was no way to protect it from a determined effort anyway. In the south, Turkey's tactics have become predictable and he pays the price. Turkey tends to shoot at one target at a time and relies too heavily on supports, rather than seeking to undermine my own supports. I actually got precisely the result I was looking for: the destruction of a Turkish army. The destruction of a Turkish army temporarily solves my difficulty in allocating resources across two fronts.

Turkey: A Tri S A Ven - Tyr (*cut*)
Turkey: A Ven - Tyr
Turkey: F Tun - WES (*bounce*)
Turkey: F TYS S F Tus - LYO
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud (*dislodged*)
Turkey: A Ser - Bud
Turkey: F Tus - LYO
Turkey: F ION - Tun (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Sev S A Rum (*cut*)
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Arm S A Sev
Turkey: A Con - Bul

With the exception of moving to Tyrolia, Turkey still isn't attacking key provinces for positional gain. He's too focused on trying to win SC's and isn't trying to play for better strategic positioning of his forces. His army is still out of play in Armenia and he's lost two consecutive chances to be in Ukraine. His army in Rumania has been destroyed. Having lost occupation of two of his SC's this Spring, he has some difficult and ugly choices to make this Fall.

Fall, 1912

France: A Ser - Gre (*bounce*)
France: F Edi S F Eng - NTH
France: F NTH - Hel
France: A Hol - Kie (*bounce*)
France: A Ruh S A Bur - Mun
France: F NAf - Tun (*bounce*)
France: A Bur - Mun
France: F Spa/nc - MAO
France: F WES - Spa/sc
France: F Eng - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F Mar S F WES - Spa/sc (*cut*)

Thanks to the previous misorder, France loses an opportunity to improve his position in the Mediterranean. On the bright side, France has Munich in hand and is all over Kiel, but getting at those SC's has cost him control of the North Sea and put his English holdings in jeopardy. France sees he can win SC's this year, but he isn't looking beyond the next horizon. He can only win the SC's at positional cost. If I exact that cost from him then, sooner or later, he'll lose those new SC's for lack of ability to defend them.

Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F NWG S F Ska - NTH
Russia: A Mun S A Kie (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: A Rum - Bud
Russia: F Nor S F Ska - NTH
Russia: F Den S F Ska - NTH
Russia: A Vie - Tri (*bounce*)
Russia: F Ska - NTH
Russia: A Gal S A Rum - Bud
Russia: A Ukr - Rum
Russia: A Kie S A Mun (*cut*)

Same strategy in the south. Play to isolate and destroy an army. In this case, I'm playing against the army in Budapest and it works again. In the short term, the win of an SC offsets my loss of Munich. I retreated my army from Munich to Silesia, feeling that interposing a defender between Munich and Warsaw was much more vital than trying to save Kiel. In the long term, owing to the destruction of two Turkish forward units, I'll be able to afford to send an army north to stop the French drive. The position of my northern fleets is ideal. I've got a direct threat against Edinburgh and the possibility of coming through France's back door via North Atlantic Ocean. France won't win more of my German SC's without paying a price.

Turkey: A Tri S A Bud - Ser (*cut*)
Turkey: A Tyr - Vie (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Tun S F TYS (*cut*)
Turkey: F TYS S F Tun
Turkey: A Bud - Ser (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: F LYO - Mar (*bounce*)
Turkey: F ION - Gre
Turkey: A Sev H
Turkey: F BLA S A Sev
Turkey: A Arm S A Sev
Turkey: A Bul S F ION - Gre

Far too passive. Turkey can try almost anything with his army in Sevastapol, since it can be protected by a supported attack on Sevastapol using the Armenian army and Black Sea fleet. Turkey's actual orders put those three units to no good use at all. Turkey also loses another developed piece when the army in Budapest is destroyed. With the orders that I wrote, Turkey's only alternative to letting the army in Budapest get destroyed was to risk being outguessed by France and allow him to win both Greece and Serbia. His inability to hold the center of his line is the direct result of that back rank marauder and his inattention to diposing of it.

Winter, 1912

Tempo Analysis

Turkey's loss of forward units has been tempo costly, among other costs. France has achieved tempo parity with the leaders for the first time this entire game. Additionally, he is now the force leader. Both of those things are due to change soon, as the army in Serbia will likely not survive through the end of 1913. Regardless, I mark that France is now in the lead. Soon, it may be the case that I would be better off shifting my forces to oppose France more than Turkey.

Evaluation

In my view, this has been an extremely successful year. I've pulled off some aggressive tactics against Turkey and, as a result, he's lost considerable ground. What losses I've experienced against France come with countervailing advantages and opportunities. For the moment, that foreboding feeling I had about being squeezed between two larger forces has passed, but I need to remember to play aggressively to hold back the tides.

The position is quite drawish. Both force and tempo are a dead heat amongst three players in a balanced position. Turkey still has six armies on the map--all east of Switzerland. Soon, the French back rank marauder will be eliminated and Turkey will be able to put all six armies back to work pushing the front. Consequently, the gains I've made against Turkey are temporary, at best, and I'm close to the maximum limit of my present expansion. France has to fight a two front naval battle, has no hope of gains in the south and has insufficient force capacity to convert any temporary dynamic advantage in the north into permanent gains. Turkey should be able to reclaim all of his lost territiories in Austria and the Balkans, owing to his force advantage there, but only completely irrational play by France will allow Turkey to push into the Munich-Silesia-Warsaw-Moscow stalemate line.

Spring, 1913

France: A Ser - Gre
France: F Edi - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F Hel - Den (*bounce*)
France: A Hol - Kie
France: A Ruh S A Hol - Kie
France: F NAf S F MAO - WES
France: A Mun H
France: F MAO - WES (*bounce*)
France: F Spa/sc - LYO
France: F Eng S F Edi - NTH
France: F Mar S F Spa/sc - LYO
France: F Bre - MAO (*bounce*)

France is endeavoring to push back the Turkish fleets in the Med, but it's hard to do without leaving a hole in his line. Now, he must cover Spain in the Fall, which will leave one of his fleets vulnerable to being dislodged and destroyed. In the meantime, the fleet in Mid-Atlantic is in danger of becoming an overburdened defender, as it is both guarding the Gibraltar break-through point against Turkey and guarding his back door against my fleet in Norwegian Sea. Further, France can't seem to develop his most recently built fleets, which are stuck in their home ports. His is a fragile setup from which to try to do much pushing. Nevertheless, push is exactly what France continues to do. Not that I expected him to pass on Kiel, but I'm beginning to wonder how far he thinks he can go.

Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F NWG - Edi (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Mun (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bud S A Vie - Tri
Russia: F Nor S F NTH
Russia: F Den - Hel (*bounce*)
Russia: A Vie - Tri
Russia: F NTH S F Den - Hel (*cut*)
Russia: A Gal S A Rum
Russia: A Rum S A Bud (*cut*)
Russia: A Kie S A Sil - Mun (*cut, dislodged*)

Looking back on these orders, it's hard to recall what I was thinking with the orders for the armies in Kiel and Silesia, other than to say I think I accidentally reversed them when ordering. My dislodged army retreats from Kiel to Berlin. My fleet orders were designed to maintain my position in the North Sea this Spring, allowing me the option of a speculative attack from there in the Fall. In the south, I correctly guess Turkey's attempt on Rumania and counter with a lunge at Trieste. My feeling is that Turkey continues to overlook my unoccupied weak spot in Ukraine because my aggressive tactics continue to focus his attention elsewhere.

Turkey: A Tri - Bud (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: A Tyr S French A Mun
Turkey: F Tun S F LYO - WES
Turkey: F TYS S F LYO - WES
Turkey: F LYO - WES
Turkey: F Gre - Alb
Turkey: A Sev S A Con - Rum (*cut*)
Turkey: F BLA C A Con - Rum
Turkey: A Arm S A Sev
Turkey: A Bul S A Con - Rum
Turkey: A Con - BLA - Rum (*bounce*)

Not much success with these orders. The French army is finally corralled in Greece, but Turkey now has to decide where his priorities lay--keeping control of Trieste, capturing Rumania, or destroying the French army in Greece. Meanwhile, Turkey continues to forsake his army in Armenia, which has been out of play for several turns now. With all of his other troubles of late, the Turk continues to play a unit short. The dislodged army retreats to Serbia, keeping all of his options alive in the fall.

Fall, 1913

France: A Gre S Turkish A Bul - Ser (*void, dislodged*)
France: F Edi S F Eng - NTH (*dislodged*)
France: F Hel - Den (*bounce*)
France: A Kie S F Hel - Den (*cut*)
France: A Ruh S A Mun
France: F NAf - Tun (*bounce*)
France: A Mun H
France: F MAO - NAO
France: F LYO - Tus
France: F Eng - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F Mar - Spa/sc
France: F Bre - MAO

The army in Greece is destroyed and the back rank marauder is finally gone, but not without having done it's work. Compare Turkey's position now to when this unit first entered Trieste. France had four SC's that were potential targets of my fleet in North Sea. What I like best about his orders is that he didn't try to defend any of them. That is, instead of wasting several tempi trying to cover his SC's and outguess my attack, he willingly sacrifices a center in an attempt to gain tempo and position. If your defenders are overburdened sometimes the best answer is to refuse to defend, but to instead counterattack and seek new gains that offset your losses. It would have been more consistent with this plan, however, to order A Mun-Boh (or -Tyl), A Ruh-Mun. If France is determined to attempt victory, then he needs to keep his forward momentum going. In the south, slipping a fleet into Tuscany will force Turkey to choose between his Italian SC's and his attack on Spain and Marseilles. The dislodged fleet retreats to Clyde.

Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F NWG S F NTH - Edi
Russia: A Sil - Mun (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bud S A Rum - Ser
Russia: F Nor - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: F Den S A Ber - Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A Tri S A Rum - Ser
Russia: F NTH - Edi
Russia: A Gal - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: A Rum - Ser
Russia: A Ber - Kie (*bounce*)

Serbia falls to yet another correct guess. My plan was built around the supposition that finally destroying the french invader would become Turkey's top priority this turn. In the north, I had more choices of plans than I could calculate. The upside of going for Holland or Belgium would be that my fleet there would become a form of back rank marauder, undermining the French operations in Germany. The down side of that plan would be the liklihood that such a fleet could be trapped and destroyed. I elected to go after Edinburgh to try to preserve my fleets as a conected fighting group. I attacked Munich simply to keep the German army in Ruhr from advancing through there, as I anticipated that France may try to grab some space and work more of his units forward.

Turkey: A Ser - Gre
Turkey: A Tyr - Ven
Turkey: F Tun S F WES (*cut*)
Turkey: F TYS S F WES
Turkey: F WES S F TYS
Turkey: F Alb S A Ser - Gre
Turkey: A Sev - Ukr
Turkey: F BLA S A Arm - Sev
Turkey: A Arm - Sev
Turkey: A Bul - Rum (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Con - Bul (*bounce*)

Turkey accomplishes two important things this season. First, he finally recognizes that the positional advantage of occupying Ukraine is worth losing a center to achieve. [This has the secondary benefit of finally placing the army built in 1910 into a useful position, after two years in exile in Armenia.] Second, he eliminates the troublesome back rank marauder, but not before its presence has cost him a substantial chunk of southeastern Europe. The orders for the fleets in the Mediterranian are not terribly useful. The strategy of static defense allowed France to sneak into Tuscany and also would have allowed the destruction of the fleet in Western Med. Turkey had the opportunity to destroy the French fleet in North Africa, occcupy Gulf of Lyon, or prevent occupation of Tuscany. All of these options would have better served his position than static defense.

Winter, 1913

It's pretty clear that I'm going to lose at least one SC in 1914 and I may not get any replacements. Thus, I build an army in St. Petersburg for a specific, single-use purpose. It will support the army in Moscow, while the army in Moscow supports the army in Warsaw into Ukraine. Getting two builds couldn't have been more timely, as it will allow me to eject the Turk from Ukraine.

Tempo Analysis

Very deceptive. France lost seven tempi when the army in Greece was destroyed. That means his other units picked up six tempi during the turn, so France's tempo count actually demonstrates a dramatic improvement in his mobilization this year.

Evaluation

The force and tempo counts say I'm winning, but those are not to be believed. There are 21 enemy units on the board to my 13. Currently, three Turkish fleets are squaring off against three French fleets in the Mediterranian, but every other enemy unit (a total of 15) is effectively opposing my 13. Further, despite its formidable look, my position is precarious and my hold on most of central Europe is temporary. Though I own both Rumania and Trieste, Turkey effectively controls those provinces now--my penalty for having no southern fleets. Once Turkey occupies those provinces with armies, I will be unable to keep Serbia, and the loss of Budapest and Vienna will follow that. Now that the French unit behind Turkish lines is gone, nothing will prevent Turkey from pushing forward again. Consequently, five of the thirteen SC's that I currently own are temporary holdings.

The conclusion to this analysis is that, despite his dilapidated state brought on by the French back rank marauder, Turkey is still the biggest threat to win this game. This threat is made even more pronounced by the French player, who is still striving for advantage and expansion in the north rather than looking to stabilize lines and settle in for the three way draw. At the time I was moved to speculate: What will happen if I'm forced to make several removals and the French player still doesn't back down? Is he hoping to force me to decide merely to whom I will throw the game? By what logic does he believe I will let him win by pursuing this strategy? Or is he merely employing short sighted analysis which informs him that I must be winning because I have the most units?

I didn't know at the time, of course, that France's aggressive tactics were due to his unfamiliarity with the possibility of resolution by draw. Interestingly, it was at about this time in the game, that I sent a press to the Master, asking if he would announce a draw proposal. The Master declined, citing a philosophy that no-press games mean no press and that such an announcement would constitute a form of press. [This philosophy is not universally held.] He suggested I simply start submitting "set draw" with my orders, if I wanted a draw, and hope that the others were doing so also. The Master couldn't know any better than I, of course, that France was unaware of even the possibility of using the "set draw" function in this game. The unfortunate combination of the Master's philosophy and France's inexperience with Judge play have converted this game from being merely no-press to being no-draw, as well. The problem is that I can't know that.

This is the juncture of the game, however, where I decided that it doesn't much matter why France was pursuing the plan that he was pursuing. The fact was that he was pursuing it and showed no signs of stopping. I need to come up with a plan that doesn't require a reversal of French stratgy to secure the Switzerland-Moscow stalemate line against Turkey.

Spring, 1914

France: F Cly S F NAO - NWG
France: F Hel S A Kie - Den
France: A Kie - Den
France: A Ruh - Kie
France: F NAf - Tun (*bounce*)
France: A Mun - Sil (*bounce*)
France: F NAO - NWG
France: F Tus - Rom (*bounce*)
France: F Eng - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F Spa/sc S F MAO - WES
France: F MAO - WES

For the second time this game, France attacks a center he has no chance of taking (Rome this time) and overlooks the superior tactic of allowing an enemy to retreat into his own centers. Had France allowed F TyS-Rom to succeed, then Turkey would have voluntarily backed up two units and would have no fleet in Gulf of Lyon. Meanwhile, France has over-extended himself in Germany and has lost Munich as the price of gaining Denmark. I've said before that ordering an army into Denmark is not recommended. In this situation, a fleet in Denmark would be a much superior threat to Russia than an army. At any rate, it would have been wiser to put that fleet in Helgoland Bight to work supporting action into North Sea. Losing control of North Sea has cost France another center and allowed further penetration by Russian fleets.

Russia: A Mos S A War - Ukr
Russia: F NWG S F Nor - NTH (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: A Sil S A Ber (*cut*)
Russia: A Bud - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: F Nor - NTH
Russia: F Den S F Nor - NTH (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: A Tri - Tyr
Russia: F Edi S F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Gal S A War - Ukr
Russia: A Ser S A Bud - Rum (*cut*)
Russia: A Ber S A Sil
Russia: A StP S A Mos
Russia: A War - Ukr

The key move among these orders is A Tri-Tyl. Knowing that, in the long run, I can't hold anything south of Switzerland anyway, I decide to shift an army north to deal with the French threat. I am immediately rewarded for this decison with a forced win of Munich in the Fall. I also achieve my two positional priorities for the turn: occupy Ukraine and North Sea. I didn't expect France to attack Denmark this Spring, but I'm satisfied that my mastery of the North Sea more than compensates for the loss of that SC. Further, that France chose to occupy Denmark with an army and not a fleet presents me with far fewer positional difficulties than would have been the case with a fleet in Denmark. My fleets retreat to Norway and Baltic Sea.

Turkey: A Gre - Ser (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Ven - Tri
Turkey: F Tun S F WES - TYS (*cut*)
Turkey: F TYS - Rom (*bounce*)
Turkey: F WES - TYS (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: F Alb S A Ven - Tri
Turkey: A Ukr - Rum
Turkey: F BLA S A Ukr - Rum
Turkey: A Sev S A Ukr - Rum
Turkey: A Bul S A Ukr - Rum

Turkey proceeds along the obvious and correct path: retaking Rumania and Trieste with armies to position himself for further expansion. If there was a better set of orders for Turkey this turn, I don't see it. The dislodged fleet retreats to Gulf of Lyon.

Fall, 1914

France: F Cly S F NWG - Edi
France: F Hel S A Kie
France: A Den - Swe (*bounce*)
France: A Kie S A Mun - Ber (*cut*)
France: F NAf S F WES - Tun
France: A Mun - Ber (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: F NWG - Edi
France: F Tus - Rom
France: F Eng - NTH
France: F Spa/sc - LYO (*bounce*)
France: F WES - Tun (*bounce*)

In the south, France executes his forced win of an SC (either Tunis or Rome had to fall on these moves) and rightly takes the risk of losing Marseilles to achieve the force. In the north, France also takes his forced victories, but the cost is not only the loss of Belgium and Munich, but also the appearance of two candidate back rank marauders in Yorkshire and Belgium. Additionally, the army in Denmark is awkwardly placed and the ability of France's other two armies to coordinate is greatly hampered by France's need to safeguard Burgandy against the Russian army in Munich. He also would have been better off had he allowed my fleet in Norway to retreat into Sweden. That's the third time that France has made that positional mistake. France's sole positional compensation is his occupation of North Sea, which is now rendered largely meaningless by the presence of a pair of Russian fleets west of that boundary. Given his precarious position, France eschews the forward retreat in favor of protecting his homeland and retreats his army to Burgandy.

Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F Nor - Swe (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil S A Tyr - Mun
Russia: A Bud S A Gal - Rum
Russia: F NTH - Bel
Russia: F BAL - Kie (*bounce*)
Russia: A Tyr - Mun
Russia: F Edi H (*dislodged*)
Russia: A Gal - Rum
Russia: A Ser - Tri (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: A Ber S F BAL - Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A StP - Nor (*bounce*)
Russia: A Ukr S A Mos - Sev

The recapture of Rumania is the latest in a series of correct guesses regarding Turkish moves. With the destruction of my army in Serbia, my position in Austria is collapsing faster than I had hoped, but the victory in Rumania will help stem the tide. My order A Ser-Tri was meant to protect Budapest but, on further review, A Ser-Bul, securing the forced win of either Rumania or Sevastapol was the correct order. In the north, I keep my SC count even with France, but pick up tremendous positonal advantages in the form of my army in Munich and my fleets in Yorkshire (where my dislodged fleet retreats) and Belgium. I did not assume that my attack on Kiel had any chance of success, but simply intended to protect Berlin thereby.

Turkey: A Gre - Ser
Turkey: A Tri S A Gre - Ser
Turkey: F Tun S F TYS (*cut*)
Turkey: F TYS S F Tun
Turkey: F LYO - Spa/sc (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Alb S A Tri
Turkey: A Rum S A Gre - Ser (*cut, dislodged*)
Turkey: F BLA S A Sev
Turkey: A Sev S A Rum (*cut*)
Turkey: A Bul S A Gre - Ser

On the Russian front, these orders are conservative, but effective. Given the position, there was no reason for Turkey to take risks for further advantage. Destroying the Russian unit in Serbia is a good tradeoff for the destruction of his own unit in Rumania. On the French front, Turkey had to lose either Rome or Tunis. Rome is the better choice of SC to sacrifice, since it's easier to recapture than Tunis would be. Turkey continues his bad luck streak by failing to correctly guess whether France would cover Spain or Marseilles.

Winter, 1914

Its mission accomplished, the army national guard of St. Petersburg quickly disband after a brief, but effective, tenure in the game. France needed two builds, but he only got one. He needs a new fleet to counteract the Russian back rank menace as badly as he needs the new army in Paris to guard Brest and Burgandy while the army in Burgandy guards Marseilles.

Tempo Analysis

The destruction of forward units has taken a toll on both Russia and Turkey. France has made large tempo gains and has surged into the tempo lead, but has very little to show for it besides a build. The positioning of his forces and his control of space has actually become less effective, demonstrating that tempo gains are not universally positive. One must use the tempi wisely as well.

Evaluation

My plan to shift focus against France has paid immediate dividends. His position has more holes than swiss cheese. Among French held centers, only Paris, Portugal, Liverpool and Edinburgh are not at reasonable risk of attack in the upcoming year. Because eight of his twelve centers are now vulnerable to attack, France is unlikely to make progress for the forseeable future. His one active plan would be to attack Scandanavia, but that would allow my two forward fleets to run freely through his rear. It would still not be too late for France to reconsider his course, pull back, consolidate his corner position and wait for the draw. Of course, the price I've paid for advantage against France is to bring about a swifter collapse of my position against Turkey. Since I calculated that collapse was inevitable, however, I'm less concerned with it's occurrance than with it's speed. If I can slow that process in the upcoming two years, I feel everything should be all right.

Spring, 1915

France: F Cly - NWG
France: F Hel - Hol
France: A Den S A Kie
France: A Kie S A Bur - Ruh
France: F NAf S F WES - Tun
France: A Bur - Ruh
France: F Edi S F Cly - NWG
France: F Rom - TYS
France: F NTH - Eng (*bounce*)
France: F Spa/sc - LYO
France: F WES - Tun
France: A Par - Gas

France is fleet heavy. While he continues to make progress with fleets, his shortage of ground forces is becoming a critical weakness in his game. He retreats his newly built army to Gascony, and from there it seeks to guard against potential incursions against all three of his home centers. That he hasn't lost a home center yet is more good fortune than good planning. Meanwhile, on the southern front, France could really use an army somewhere (anywhere) on the Italian peninsula. While his orders continue to put a premium value on the agressive pursuit of new SC's, France's position is becoming steadily weaker. He's lost control of the Channel, for example. Further, though France now has a forced win of Belgium and a 50% shot at taking Norway, he's lost London and, if he tries for Norway, will be certain to lose Kiel. Consequently, he's failed to net new SC's, while his home centers come closer to being under attack.

Russia: A Mos - Sev
Russia: F Nor - NWG (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Mun (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bud S A Rum - Ser (*cut*)
Russia: F Bel - Eng (*bounce*)
Russia: F BAL - Swe
Russia: A Mun - Ruh (*bounce*)
Russia: F Yor - Lon
Russia: A Rum - Ser (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: A Ber S A Sil - Mun
Russia: A Ukr - Gal

That France would order A Bur-Ruh with support was a great surprise for me. I was anticipating A Bur-Mar, A Par-Bur. It's very upsetting to realize that I could have had armies in Munich and Burgandy. France would have been in quite a pickle in that event. It just goes to show the power of unpredictability. I'm definately spooked by the agressiveness of those French orders. By pushing his fleet Clyde into Norwegian Sea and army Burgandy into Ruhr, he's not leaving himself much room for returning to defense. The possibility that France might cooperate for a three way draw is becoming more remote in my thinking every turn (and I did not know at the time, that France did not consider it a possibility at all). In the south, my orders were designed to force Turkey to give up Sevastapol if he wanted to take Rumania, and that's exactly what happened. The dislodged army retreats to Ukraine. The attack on Serbia saved Budapest, and would have, at worst, resulted in an exchange of SC's had Turkey ordered differently.

Turkey: A Ser S A Tri - Bud (*cut*)
Turkey: A Tri - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Tun H (*dislodged*)
Turkey: F TYS - Nap
Turkey: F LYO - Tus
Turkey: F Alb - ADR
Turkey: F BLA S A Sev - Rum
Turkey: A Sev - Rum
Turkey: A Bul S A Sev - Rum
Turkey: F Smy - AEG
Turkey: A Con - Smy

Turkey continues an increasingly questionable preference for conservative orders. Turkey has six fleets at this point; more than enough to meet the advancing French fleets without allowing further losses. The fleet in Gulf of Lyon, instead of retreating, should have been put to use probing the French defenses and, for that matter, forcing France to defend something. France has never defended Marseilles the entire time that Turkey has occupied the Gulf. And why not? Turkey has never attacked. That fleet in the Gulf was a candidate back rank marauder, but it was never ordered with that mission in mind. On the Russian front, Turkey has traded Rumania for Sevastapol this turn, which gets him a forced win of Budapest, if he's willing to risk Rumania (which he should do since his fleet in Black Sea gives him long term leverage over any SC on that coast). He'll also be able to reclaim Sevastapol soon enough. With his dislodged fleet retreating to Ioninan Sea, Turkey is set up to convoy his newly built army to Venice. From there, it could wreak havoc against either France or myself.

Fall, 1915

France: F NWG S F NTH - Nor
France: F Hol - Bel
France: A Den - Swe (*bounce*)
France: A Kie - Ber (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: F NAf - Tun (*bounce*)
France: A Ruh S F Hol - Bel
France: F Edi - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F TYS - Rom (*bounce*)
France: F NTH - Nor (*bounce*)
France: F LYO - Tus
France: F Tun - TYS (*bounce*)
France: A Gas - Bur

In the north, France takes Belgium, but guesses wrong about the defense of Norway and fails to claim it. The attempt on Norway has cost him Kiel and the dislodged army is forced to retreat to Holland. The much more positionally damaging F Nwg-Bar, F Edi-Nwg deserved consideration. Dislodging the Russian fleet from Belgium also ushers it directly into the Channel. There's a line between agressive and foolhardy and France crossed it this turn. Instead of wrecking my position, he's wrecking his own. Even if you understand France's point of view (i.e. his belief that there can be no draw) his tactics are still taking a wrong turn. Being aggressive to the point of collapsing your own position is not going to bring you any closer to victory. At some point it's necessary to evaluate whether one's attacks are succeeding. If not, there is no point in continuing them--even in a bloodlust scenario. In the south, the attempt on Rome seems pointless, since Turkey's victory there was forced. Had Turkey gone for the long convoy, however, Rome would have remained in French hands. Still, I would have attempted the Ionian Sea and hoped that Turkey failed to support that fleet.

Russia: A Sev S Turkish A Rum (*void*)
Russia: F Nor - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Mun
Russia: A Bud S Turkish A Tri (*cut*)
Russia: F Bel - Hol (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: F Swe - Den (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mun - Kie
Russia: F Lon S F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Ber S A Mun - Kie
Russia: A Gal S A Bud

I guessed that it would be more likely that France would use his uncuttable support to attack Norway and the guess pays off. I also correctly guessed that France would get greedy and so Kiel is mine again. Losing Belgium is a big plus, as now that fleet gets kicked to the Channel, so it got to attack Holland and advance into the critical Channel province on the same turn. Retreating that fleet to the Channel is a forward retreat of the tastiest kind. Having learned from watching France's war with England, I'm able to take advantage of France's tendency to dislodge units without regard to their likely path of retreat. In the south, since my armies in Sevastapol and Budapest had nothing better to do, I issued friendly supports for Turkish units. I had anticipated a convoy of army Smyrna to Venice and I was hoping to convince Turkey to order that army towards France instead of Russia. I also figured, under the circumstances, why not? It can't do any harm and might do some good. Leaving Vienna unguarded wasn't a hard decision. Given Turkey's patterns to this point, I didn't see him making a speculative attack, trying to get around the corner of my line. I'm genuinely surprised that Budapest is still standing, but I'll take it.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tri S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: F ION H
Turkey: F Nap S F Tus - Rom
Turkey: F Tus - Rom
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum - Sev
Turkey: A Rum - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bul - Rum (*bounce*)
Turkey: F AEG S F ION
Turkey: A Smy - Arm

Attacking Sevastapol was a weak plan and almost certainly doomed, since Turkey, at the moment, did not have superior force there. To pass on the certain win of Budapest to attempt Sevastapol was pointless. Further, I'm absolutely shocked to see A Smy-Arm. Turkey passes up an opportunity to convoy that army to a prime central location and banishes it to Armenia, from where he only recently had finally extricated a previously stranded army. Granted, the convoy would have ceded Rome to France for another year, but Turkey could have safely removed a fleet from either the Aegean or Adriatic, and the positional gain would have been well worth that cost.

Winter, 1915

France's removal was very disturbing to me at the time. First, he removed the only fleet which was able to defend against my moving into Mid-Atlantic Ocean next turn. That's virtually suicidal. Second, he removed a unit from the Turkish front, where he's actually made some recent progress. The removal virtually concedes that theater of conflict to Turkey. The unit that was screaming to be removed was the army in Denmark. It's cut off from the rest of the French military and has no avenue of retreat if (when) dislodged. Such a removal also would have been a signal to Russia that France was ready to stand down and accept peace and a three way draw. I know now, of course, that France was not considering the draw possibility because he didn't know about it.

My build is a mistake. Building either an army in Warsaw or a fleet on the north coast of St. Petersburg would have been much more to the point of my long range plans. I let myself get distracted by the sight of the Turkish army in Armenia. I wanted to stuff Turkey's position and stagnate that army at the edge of the board. I didn't give due consideration to the reality that I was doing that by stagnating my own newly built army at the edge of the board--so my plan is a wash. It would have been better to have simply ceded Sevastapol as I had planned all along and continue to hammer at France.

Tempo Analysis

France had stood at plus two tempi before the removal.

Evaluation

I've made some serious strides in a year. I've taken a center from France, isolated his misplaced army in Denmark and worked a connected pair of fleets behind his lines. Though French units hover over Scandanavia, they've failed to accomplish anything and France has also failed to exploit my weakness of the unoccupied provinces of Barents Sea and St. Petersburg. After giving away three centers to Turkey last season, I've held him to no gains this season. Turkey's tactical errors and strategic misplacement of units get more credit than my defense, but I'm not complaining.

The implications of France's removal, however, are powerfully disturbing. I am forced to speculate: Does he have it in mind to throw the game to Turkey since my attack is succeeding at this point? If so, how can I prevent that?

Spring, 1916

France: F NWG - NAO
France: F Bel S F NTH - Eng
France: A Den - Kie (*bounce*)
France: A Hol S A Den - Kie
France: A Ruh - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F Edi - NWG
France: F TYS H
France: F NTH - Eng
France: F Tus S F TYS
France: F Tun S F TYS
France: A Bur - Gas

On account of his removal, France has no more productive southern strategy than static defense. Three units hurry backward to deal with the Russian units in the rear, supported by a fourth. Two units strive to save the army in Denmark from destruction. That leaves just two French units on offense. France has also abandoned North Sea. He is close to a full rout.

Russia: A Sev S Turkish A Rum (*cut*)
Russia: F Nor - NTH
Russia: A Mun S A Ber - Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A Bud - Vie
Russia: F Eng - MAO
Russia: F Swe S A Kie - Den
Russia: A Kie - Den (*bounce*)
Russia: F Lon - Wal
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Ber - Kie (*bounce*)
Russia: A Gal - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mos S A Sev

When I wrote the orders for my fleets, I was assuming that France would fall back to deal with my forward fleets and I was not disappointed. I now have my units positioned adjacent to every French-held center except his home centers. Defending against such a multiplicity of threats is virtually unmanageable. My biggest concern this turn was that France might destroy my army in Kiel, but he splits his forces, rather than concentrating them. In the south, I'm pleased to see that Turkey is dithering. I had no right to expect to keep Budapest in the long run, but it's certainly lost now.

Turkey: A Ser S A Rum
Turkey: A Tri - Ven
Turkey: F ION S F Nap
Turkey: F Nap S F Rom
Turkey: F Rom S F Nap
Turkey: F ADR - Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Arm - Sev (*cut*)
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F AEG S F ION
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)

Turkey could cut me in half and collapse my line by ordering A Tri-Tyl, but those troops march off to Venice this Spring, instead. From there, they can break the positional deadlock with the French fleets, but this sacrifices the immediate postional superiority and SC gains that were already in hand on the Russian front. Parking a fleet in Trieste is a step backward, positionally. The fleet can accomplish little here, other than squatting on that SC. The remainder of Turkey's orders venture nothing. At least, Turkey could have tried to position his armies more aggressively with A Ser-Tri, F Adr S A Ser-Tri, A Bul-Ser, A Rum S A Bul-Ser as a follow up to A Tri-Ven. His actual orders virtually guarantee that progress is impossible on the Russian front for the time being.

Fall, 1916

France: F NAO - Lvp
France: F Bel - NTH
France: A Den - Kie (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: A Hol S A Den - Kie
France: A Ruh S A Den - Kie
France: F NWG - Edi
France: F TYS - ION (*bounce*)
France: F Eng - MAO
France: F Tus - Rom (*bounce*)
France: F Tun S F TYS - ION
France: A Gas - Spa

Inevitably, the army in Denmark is destroyed. France does a lot of retreating this turn. Though he's trapped the Russian fleet in Portugal, he's critically weakened his control of Burgandy and Marseilles to do it. With a mere two armies left on the ground in Germany, France can no longer hold the Maginot line. He re-occupies North Sea, but does not control it any longer. By succumbing to the desire to passively protect his centers, France hastens his positional decline.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F NTH - Den
Russia: A Mun S A Kie
Russia: A Vie - Bud (*bounce*)
Russia: F MAO - Por
Russia: F Swe S F NTH - Den
Russia: A Kie S F NTH - Den
Russia: F Wal - Lon
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Ber S A Kie
Russia: A Gal S A Vie - Bud
Russia: A Mos S A Sev

In the north, I played to take out that army in Denmark and lure French units further west. I was counting on France to choose protecting Edinburgh over attacking Norway and was not disappointed. By ordering my fleet back to London, I accomplish three things. First, I allow the passive retreat to Liverpool, which takes the French fleet there out of play. [Note how positionally effective it's been to allow France's fleets to retreat into his own centers, rather than bounce them with useless attacks.] Second, I defend London. Third, I forego having a fleet in the Channel and give the French player another chance to choose peaceful cooperation. If he let's that fleet move back east, we can still cooperate to stalemate the Turk and end this game in a three way draw.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Ven - Pie
Turkey: F ION S F Nap (*cut*)
Turkey: F Nap S F Rom
Turkey: F Rom S F Nap (*cut*)
Turkey: F Tri C Russian A Sev - Switzerland
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F AEG S F ION
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)

Unbelievably passive, though I grant that after mispositioning his forces in the Spring, there was little hope for Turkish expansion in the Fall. Turkey has accomplished nothing this year apart from moving his army from Trieste to Piedmont. I'm not sure what to make of the peace overture, when combined with a supported attack on one of my centers.

Winter, 1916

Now I'm really worried. I left France an out. If he had removed the fleet in North Sea, the fleet in London had a clear path out of his rear. The French and Russian forces could still have been untangled and disengaged (following the inevitable destruction of the fleet in Portugal) and the Gibraltar-Switzerland-Moscow stalemate line could then be easily set up against Turkey. After this removal, however, I have little hope that France will pursue any rational goal related to survival in a three way draw. I now know, of course, that France never considered this a possibility because of his belief that the game could not end in a draw. At the time, I was thinking that France must have developed a vendetta against me that was clouding his strategic thinking.

Tempo Analysis

France's decline is more palpable in the tempo count than in his forced removal of a single unit.

Evaluation

My southern front is safe, unless or until Turkey improves the positioning of his forces there and becomes offensive-minded again. He needs to get an army back into Trieste or Venice to make any progress against me. France's position is in a state of free fall. His pattern of removals is a Catch-22 that I don't know how to solve. If I push forward, Turkey will likely reach 18 before I do. If I back away, France has never shown any hint of understanding that the positional imperative is not to attack me, but to consolidate and stalemate. At this point, I don't think I have any option but to go for France's jugular, but I fear that it's a doomed strategy. Turkey is going to get some builds from France (Tunis and Marseilles for starters) and his passive, stagnant strategy isn't likely to continue after he gets a build or two and brings more armies into play.

Spring, 1917

France: F Lvp - NAO
France: F NTH - Lon
France: A Hol - Kie (*bounce*)
France: A Ruh S A Hol - Kie
France: F Edi - NWG
France: F TYS - Tun
France: F MAO - Por
France: F Tus - LYO
France: A Spa S F MAO - Por

France hastens his own demise by leaving the keys to his kingdom (English Channel and Burgandy) unguarded. The attempt on Kiel was doomed without an order of F Nth-Den and the recapture of either London or Kiel is not worth the loss of Brest. France came within a Turk's whisker of losing all three home centers this turn. He's playing like he doesn't care what happens to him now.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F Den S A Kie
Russia: A Mun - Bur
Russia: A Vie S A Gal - Bud
Russia: F Por - Spa/sc (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: F Swe - Ska
Russia: A Kie S A Ber - Mun (*cut*)
Russia: F Lon - Eng
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Ber - Mun
Russia: A Gal - Bud (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F StP/nc - Nor
Russia: A War - Sil

Going right after France's throat and, surprisingly, succeeding. I now have Paris and Brest in pocket. That was well worth rising London and Denmark to achieve. The destruction of my fleet in Portugal, my most forward unit, is sad, but it has done its job, drawing France's defenders away from key penetration points at the Channel and at Burgandy. I was anticipating that France's North Sea fleet would either be cutting the support at Denmark or looking to sneak into Helgoland Bight or Skaggerak, followed up by F Edi-Nth. Seeing a fleet in Norwegian Sea again catches me off guard. In the south, I'm happy to continue the stalemate as long as Turkey is content to remain passive. I really can't force any gains there, so I'm content to encourage Turkey's passive psychology.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Pie - Tus
Turkey: F ION - Alb
Turkey: F Nap S F Rom - TYS
Turkey: F Rom - TYS
Turkey: F Tri C Russian A War - Switzerland
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F AEG - ION
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)

Turkey passes up a free shot at Marseilles because he's worried about the possibility of temporarily losing Rome. He might have learned his lesson about back rank mauraders too well. Had the French fleet in Tuscany made for Rome, it would have gone no further and would have been easily ejected in the near future. Marseilles, on the other hand, isn't likely to be a sitting duck forever. Turkey also continues his passivity on the Russian front. I really have no idea what the point of ordering a fleet to Albania would be. Thanks to France's lopsided removals, however, the Turk will still win Tunis by default.

Fall, 1917

France: F NAO - MAO
France: F Lon S F NWG - NTH
France: A Hol - Kie (*bounce*)
France: A Ruh - Mun (*bounce*)
France: F NWG - NTH
France: F Tun - TYS (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: F Por S F NAO - MAO
France: F LYO S F Tun - TYS
France: A Spa - Gas

This concludes a year of insipid orders for France, in which he attempted no effective defenses or positional improvements and made no serious bid for new centers. Although he's had several openings, France has never attempted to penetrate the weak spots in my northern defenses. Continuing to play to occupy the North Sea is pointless when controlling it is impossible. In the south, France continues his grim policy of abandoning his position to Turkey by ordering the disband of his dislodged fleet.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F Den - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bur - Par
Russia: A Vie - Bud (*bounce*)
Russia: F Ska - Nor
Russia: A Kie S A Mun (*cut*)
Russia: F Eng - Bre
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Mun S A Kie (*cut*)
Russia: A Gal S A Vie - Bud
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F Nor - BAR
Russia: A Sil - Ber

I gave France too much credit with these orders for my fleets. I was over-worried about the difficulty that F Nwg-Bar would present me. I should have seen that, with the fleet in London unable to move in the Fall, supporting his fleet from Norwegian Sea into North Sea was the more likely continuation. Also, with the ability to build in St. Petersburg this Winter, the threat from an isolated French fleet in Barents Sea was no threat at all. My newest army moves to Berlin to provide extra support in driving the connected pair of French armies out of Germany. The bouncing game with Turkey continues.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tus - TYS - Tun
Turkey: F Alb - ADR
Turkey: F Nap S F TYS
Turkey: F TYS C A Tus - Tun
Turkey: F Tri C Russian A Sev - Switzerland
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F ION S A Tus - Tun
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)

By means of the convoy, Turkey ensures the capture of Tunis, but the result is more wasted time and an army misplaced in Tunis. Turkey has become extremely conservative about safeguarding his center count at the expense of all forward momentum for several years now. It's only Turkey's plodding pace that's keeping me in this game.

Winter, 1917

For the life of me, I can't figure out why Turkey built a fleet. He's already got more than he can effectively use. He desperately needs another army to break the deadlocked Russian front.

Tempo Analysis

I thought hard about how to credit Turkey in tempi for the convoy of the army from Tuscany to Tunis. I finally decided to change the tempo value of that army from "6" (number of land spaces from Smyrna) to "3" (number of sea spaces from Smyrna). My reasoning is that, in each case, the tempi for the "normal" route to that province from the starting point is being credited. Frankly, I felt that the poor positioning of this army should be reflected in the reduced tempo count. My own zero tempo count is deceiving, as it largely reflects the destruction of my fleet in Portugal and the loss of seven tempi thereby, masking the fact that I gained seven tempi elsewhere. Considering the effect it's had on the French position to destroy that fleet, the sacrifice is well worth it.

Evaluation

It's interesting to note that, though France has devoted the bulk of his forces to fighting me, and has reduced his defenses against Turkey to virtually non-existent, almost all of the progress against France in the last four years has been made by me. At this point, the French forces will either collapse inward in an attempt to recover the homeland (more likely) or will remain scattered around his holdings trying to defend them. Either way, I'll pick up a few more centers pretty quickly and continue my robust advance through the north.

In the south, my build of an army in Moscow in the Winter of 1915, though I thought it a mistake, hasn't turned out badly. It's had a greater effect than I anticipated it would, bluffing Turkey to a dead standstill on that front for two years running now. Were it not for France's lopsided removals, Turkey would have made no progress at all for two years.

For the first time, I'm beginning to entertain the idea that I could win this game. I only need to convert four more centers to reach 18 and the lowlands and all of England (5 centers in all) are within my reach in the next 2-3 years. If Turkey takes another year to push his armies around the end of my line, he might take too long to claim Budapest, Vienna and Sevastapol.

Spring, 1918

France: F MAO - Eng
France: F Lon S F MAO - Eng
France: A Hol S A Ruh - Kie
France: A Ruh - Kie
France: F NTH - Den (*bounce*)
France: F Por - MAO (*bounce*)
France: F LYO H
France: A Gas - Par (*bounce*)

So much for the idea that France will retreat his forces in an attempt to recapture his homeland. The capture of Kiel is meaningless with the Maginot line undefended and Russian forces pouring into France.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F Den - Ska (*bounce*)
Russia: A Par S A Mun - Bur (*cut*)
Russia: A Vie S A Gal - Bud
Russia: F Nor - Ska (*bounce*)
Russia: A Kie S A Ber - Mun (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: F Bre - MAO (*bounce*)
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Mun - Bur
Russia: A Gal - Bud (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F BAR - NWG
Russia: A Ber - Mun
Russia: A War - Sil

I correctly guessed that France would try for Brest in the Fall, rather than the Spring. The result is that I get to keep Brest this year and the mobilization of the French fleet in Portugal is delayed for a season. The loss of Kiel is strictly temporary and I have positional gains in trade for it. My dislodged army retreats to Berlin. I didn't venture anything against Turkey, preferring to hold my breath and see how long our detente will last.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tun - ION - ADR - Tri
Turkey: F ADR C A Tun - Tri
Turkey: F Nap - TYS
Turkey: F TYS - Tus
Turkey: F Tri - Ven
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F ION C A Tun - Tri
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Con - AEG

The long convoy shows that Turkey finally gets it. The extra unit of force projecting inland will break the deadlock with Russian armies and allow him to revive his forward momentum and move northward, beginning with Budapest, this Fall. Meanwhile, the Turk cautiously maneuvers his fleets, seeking to move forward without allowing any more rogue French units behind his lines. Had Turkey built an army this year, he could be preparing to deploy it to Piedmont or Tyrolia, which would give him a decisive positional advantage that would make what he's presently accomplished with his fleets sufficient for the win.

Fall, 1918

France: F Eng S F Por - MAO
France: F Lon - NTH (*bounce*)
France: A Hol S A Kie
France: A Kie H (*dislodged*)
France: F NTH - Edi (*bounce*)
France: F Por - MAO
France: F LYO - Mar
France: A Gas - Par (*bounce*)

France's overburdened defense sufferes another collapse. He can't even protect his centers from all of the simple attacks, much less cover his positional weaknesses. Still, the loss of Belgium was strictly unnecessary. France's control of that province was secure. A defense could have easily been arranged. Trying to keep Kiel at the cost of Belgium was pointless, as it only hastens the collapse of his position. The dislodged army retreats to Ruhr.

Russia: A Sev - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: F Den S A Ber - Kie
Russia: A Par S F Bre (*cut*)
Russia: A Vie - Bud (*bounce*)
Russia: F Nor - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: A Ber - Kie
Russia: F Bre H
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev - Rum
Russia: A Bur - Bel
Russia: A Gal S A Sev - Rum
Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F NWG - Edi (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mun S A Ber - Kie
Russia: A Sil - Boh

I was a bit nervous about leaving the French fleet in North Sea a route into my back door, but assumed that the Spring's self bounce in Skagerrak would bluff France out of trying for it in the Fall. With these moves, I felt that it was very likely that France would lose two out of three of Edinburgh, Kiel and Belgium and I was right. Based on his previous patterns, I was certain that France would try to hold Kiel and would use his Channel fleet for operations around Brest, not to cover Belguim. I was not disappointed. Presuming that the loss of Budapest was imminent, I ventured something a bit more aggressive against Turkey, but Turkey remains conservative and I fail to take Rumania.

Turkey: A Ser - Bud
Turkey: A Tri S A Ser - Bud
Turkey: F ADR S F Ven
Turkey: F TYS S F Tus - LYO
Turkey: F Tus - LYO
Turkey: F Ven S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Ser - Bud (*cut*)
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F ION H
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: F AEG S A Bul

What is really annoying about these orders is knowing that I could have saved Budapest if I had tried. The logic of an attack on Rumania was the assumtion that the army there would be moving: either capturing Budapest or cutting support in Galicia. I should have given more weight to the possibility that Turkey's pattern of orders had previously shown a tendency to rely on his own supports, rather than cutting the support of enemy units. The real mystery here, though, is F Ion Holds. Why? France can't possibly be impressed by holding that fleet back while forcing another into the Gulf of Lyon. If Turkey wants to win this game, his fleets should be making a mad dash for Spain and Gibraltar.

Winter, 1918

Turkey has no use for another fleet. France has no removals that aren't helpful to me in some fashion. I avoided a removal by capturing Belgium in trade for Budapest.

Tempo Analysis

Considering France's rapidly deteriorating state, this is less progress than you might expect from Russia and Turkey.

Evaluation

Now that Turkey has reactivated his land campaign against me and built a sixth army, those fleeting dreams of victory have left me again. I return to trying to calculate how I can slow Turkey down enough to offset the loss of Vienna and Sevastapol with centers gained from France, while securely stalemating him south of the Switzerland-Moscow line. Holland is an obvious target for this year and the English centers will be the easiest to get at next. France's continued occupation of North Sea is a troublesome thing to deal with. I can't forcibly eject him without creating a candidate back rank maurauder, but as long as he's there, it is difficult to make progress. Everything becomes a moot point, though, if Turkey gets past Gibraltar. If he's allowed to add Marseilles, Spain and Portugal to his booty, that will be game and Turkey is a lot closer to winning those centers than I am.

Spring, 1919

France: F Eng - Bre
France: A Hol S A Ruh - Bel (*dislodged*)
France: A Ruh - Bel
France: F NTH - Edi
France: F MAO S F Eng - Bre
France: F Mar - Spa/sc
France: A Gas - Par (*bounce*)

These orders gave some slight reason to hope that France was changing his mind. He's trying to protect Spain from the Turk and keeping his fleet in Mid-Atlantic Ocean to guard Gibraltar. Perhaps, I thought, there is still some chance that he'll guard his corner of a stalemate line. Rather than continuing to thrash about in the Lowlands, though he should have tried A Ruh-Bur, with some hope of recapturing Paris and reuniting a pair of armies in a useful spot. He loses one of his remaining armies when the army in Holland is destroyed this turn.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F Den - Ska (*bounce*)
Russia: A Par S F Bre (*cut*)
Russia: A Vie S A Boh - Tyr
Russia: F Nor - Ska (*bounce*)
Russia: A Kie S A Bel - Hol
Russia: F Bre H (*dislodged*)
Russia: A Ukr S A Gal
Russia: A Bel - Hol
Russia: A Gal S A Vie
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F NWG - NTH
Russia: A Mun - Ruh
Russia: A Boh - Tyr

On the French front, my orders ensure the capture of Holland and the destruction of the French army there, while ensuring against the loss of Belgium. Though I self-bounced again to guard against the advance of the French fleet, I was fairly certain that, given the opportunity, he would voluntarily retreat into Edinburgh. Thus, France solves the problem of his occupation of North Sea for me when I allow his retreat into Edinburgh. Thanks to France's use of the Channel fleet to take Brest, London is now a free grab. My fleet dislodged from Brest retreats to Picardy. On the Turkish front, I put Vienna at risk this Spring to move to occupy Tyrolia. I had anticipated that Turkey would execute a convoy to Venice and wanted to plug the hole in the end of my line. Imagine my surprise to see that Turkey's Spring orders were so exceptionally passive that not only is Vienna safe, but I have a chance to win back Budapest in the Fall.

Turkey: A Bud S A Rum
Turkey: A Tri S A Bud
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri
Turkey: F TYS C A Con - Pie
Turkey: F LYO C A Con - Pie
Turkey: F Ven S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Rum S A Bud
Turkey: A Bul S A Rum
Turkey: F ION C A Con - Pie
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: F AEG C A Con - Pie
Turkey: A Con - AEG - ION - TYS - LYO - Pie

This, at least explains the fleet holding in Ionian last fall. Turkey was planning this convoy all along. Though the convoy is successful, the entirety of Turkey's military remains frozen in place while it occurs. Gibraltar remains as far away from Turkey as ever.

Fall, 1919

France: F Bre - Eng (*bounce*)
France: A Bel - Bur
France: F Edi - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F MAO - NAO
France: F Spa/sc - MAO
France: A Gas S A Bel - Bur

So much for France's potential change of mind. He abandons the defense of Marseilles and Spain, while ordering his units out of Brest and Belgium, not even attempting to hold them in the Fall. I'll grant that there is not much play left for France, but these orders are little more than a suicide mission.

Russia: A Sev H
Russia: F Den - NTH (*bounce*)
Russia: A Par H
Russia: A Vie S A Gal - Bud
Russia: F Nor - NWG
Russia: A Kie - Mun
Russia: F Pic - Eng (*bounce*)
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev
Russia: A Hol S A Ruh - Bel
Russia: A Gal - Bud
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F NTH - Lon
Russia: A Ruh - Bel
Russia: A Tyr - Tri (*bounce, dislodged*)

On the French front, I can't really be displeased, since I've netted another center and I've continued to push the boundary of the line I control westward. Most importantly, I now control the critical North Sea province. Still, I'm kicking myself for presuming that recapturing Brest wasn't even worth a try. On the Turkish front, my attempt to capture Budapest succeeds, but I'm appalled at the positional cost. Giving up Galicia and Tyrolia wasn't at all what I had in mind. My dislodged army in Tyrolia must retreat to Bohemia. Further, Budapest very obviously cannot be held and the postional weaknesses I've created will outlast that temporary victory. Turkey's prior passivity lulled me into a serious miscalculation. I'm in danger of conceding positional control of the stalemate line as the price for temorary occupation of a single supply center.

Turkey: A Bud S A Rum - Gal (*dislodged*)
Turkey: A Tri S A Pie - Tyr
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri
Turkey: F TYS - WES
Turkey: F LYO S F TYS - WES
Turkey: F Ven S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Bul - Rum
Turkey: A Rum - Gal
Turkey: A Bul - Rum
Turkey: F ION - Tun
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: F AEG - ION
Turkey: A Pie - Tyr

Turkey's supported attack on Tyrolia catches me completely by surprise. I had never considered that army was going anywhere but Marseilles after being convoyed to Piedmont. It appears that my maneuver to occupy Tyrolia might have had the effect of waking the sleeping Turkish giant. The remainder of Turkey's army maneuvers are extremely interesting because they appear to anticipate precisely the moves I made and be designed to take maximum advantage of the positional holes created as a result. Turkey accepts the temporary loss of Budapest to take the opportunity to break the long stalemate in this line and happily retreats the dislodged army to Serbia. That was very well played. Still, he has to be in some state of disbelief that he could have had both Marseilles and Spain if he'd merely tried for them. In some sense, the collapse of that part of my Turkish front south of the stalemate line might be worthwhile, if it distracted Turkey from improving the pace of his conquest against France.

Winter, 1919

I was counting on the Warsaw build to fill in the hole I would leave in Galicia. I wasn't counting on there already being a Turkish army in Galicia. Given France's ability to turn the corner north of the Isles, the build of a fifth fleet in the north to counter it is perfectly timed.

Tempo Analysis

It's notable that all of my tempo gains came at France's expense, while most of Turkey's tempo gains came at my expense.

Evaluation

Nominally, I'm only two centers away from victory, but those centers are a very, very long way from my current reach. France can retake Paris in the upcoming year and can prevent me from any compensating gains elsewhere, if he continues his policy of lopsided defense. Turkey has a very real shot at taking two centers (of Vienna, Budapest and Sevastapol) from me in 1920 and will certainly come to own/control all centers/provinces east of Switzerland and south of Munich, Warsaw and Moscow in the next 2-3 years. If Turkey gets to waltz into Marseilles and Iberia in that time frame (and it appears France might allow that), it's game over.

Spring, 1920

France: F Bre - Pic (*bounce, dislodged*)
France: A Bur - Par
France: F Edi S F NAO - NWG
France: F NAO - NWG
France: F MAO - Eng (*bounce*)
France: A Gas S A Bur - Par

France loses another unit when is fleet in Brest is destroyed. France continues his policy of ignoring Turkish units and throwing his wieght entirely into the Russian campaign. This might be a defensible strategy if, at any point in time, he had given some sort of signal that he was willing to balance his corner in a three way draw if I backed off. Now, however, he's carried it to the extreme of allowing Turkey to cross the stalemate line. One can look back over the previous 5-7 years' worth of move reports, searching in vain for any point at which it would have made sense for Russia to have given France more breathing room than I did. Virtually every season has featured some aggressive tactic by France to break through the lines, not stabilize them. Even now, he tries to break through my line in the north by dislodging my fleet in Norwegian Sea. But this attmept, like all of his others, comes to naught. Accepting France's explanation that he thought a draw impossible, his play over that time frame is still not entirely sensible. Once he started to lose the war with Russia, he never devised a plan to slow or redirect Russia's attack. Going down fighting is not a good plan if it's the fighting that's causing you to go down. Sometimes survival is the first order of the day. Assuming one is playing for the win and eschewing the draw, it should still go without saying that one cannot win if one does not first survive.

Russia: A Sev - Rum (*bounce*)
Russia: F Den - NTH
Russia: A Par - Bre
Russia: A Vie S A Bud - Gal (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: F NWG S F Den - NTH (*cut, dislodged*)
Russia: A Mun - Sil (*bounce*)
Russia: F Pic S A Par - Bre
Russia: A Ukr S A Sev - Rum
Russia: A Hol - Ruh
Russia: A Bud - Gal (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mos - Sev (*bounce*)
Russia: F Lon - Eng (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bel - Bur
Russia: A Boh S A Bud - Gal
Russia: A War - Sil (*bounce*)
Russia: F StP/nc - Nor

On the French front, this time I correctly anticipate that France will place a greater value on carrying forward his spite tactics than defending what he owns. As a result, I successfully trade Brest for Paris, destroy another French unit, and prepare to forward retreat--my dislodged fleet moving to Clyde--towards the now-exposed Liverpool. The news on the Turkish front is nearly total disaster. My armies from Tyrolia to Ukraine have become a string of overburdened defenders and I'm reduced to guessing where Turkey will concentrate his attacks. I'm outguessed at every turn, my army in Vienna is destroyed, and am in danger of losing everything south of the stalemate line all at once. The situation in Budapest is especially humorous. It looks like Custer's Last Stand.

Turkey: A Ser S A Gal - Bud
Turkey: A Tri S A Tyr - Vie
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri
Turkey: F WES - Spa/sc
Turkey: F LYO S F WES - Spa/sc
Turkey: F Ven S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum
Turkey: A Gal - Bud (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Rum S A Gal - Bud (*cut*)
Turkey: F Tun - NAf
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tyr - Vie

For their success, these orders are still conservative, seeking to risk as little as possible for the gains made. Turkey continues to favor using his own supports over cutting enemy supports. Turkey's support of himself into Spain, while continuing to bypass Marseilles tells me that he still doesn't recognize that France is all but throwing these SC's into his lap.

Fall, 1920

France: A Par - Bre (*bounce*)
France: F Edi - NTH (*bounce*)
France: F NWG S F Edi - NTH
France: F MAO S A Par - Bre (*cut, dislodged*)
France: A Gas S A Par - Bre

France continues his singular focus on Russian units, this time allowing Turkey to freely attack Marseilles and cross the stalemate line without a fight. True to form, he retreats the dislodged fleet into North Atlantic Ocean, ignoring lines of retreat more problematic to Turkey. I have Turkey to thank for saving my army in Brest.

Russia: A Sev S A Ukr - Rum (*dislodged*)
Russia: F NTH S F Lon - Eng (*cut*)
Russia: A Bre H
Russia: F Cly - Lvp
Russia: A Mun - Sil
Russia: F Pic S A Bre
Russia: A Ukr - Rum
Russia: A Ruh - Mun
Russia: A Bud - Gal
Russia: A Mos S A Sev
Russia: F Lon - Eng
Russia: A Bur - Mar (*bounce*)
Russia: A Boh S A Bud - Gal
Russia: A War S A Bud - Gal
Russia: F Nor S F NTH

If France won't defend his position from Turkey, I'll have to do that for him. It's only because I bounced his fleet out of an attempt to move into the Channel that France has a fleet blocking the Mid-Atlantic Ocean at all. It's the need to attack Mid with support that keeps Turkey from supporting himself into Marseilles, which allows me to bounce him out with a simple attack of my own. Meanwhile, an desperately needed bit of luck in my guessing game with Turkey lands me an army in Rumania; though it costs me the destruction of my army in Sevastapol. The army in Rumania is a candidate for back rank marauder if Turkey doesn't handle it properly. The need to deal with this positional problem will buy me precious time on the Turkish front to properly arrange a stalemate of his forces.

Turkey: A Ser S A Tri - Bud
Turkey: A Tri - Bud
Turkey: F ADR - ION
Turkey: F Spa/sc S F NAf - MAO
Turkey: F LYO - Mar (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Ven H
Turkey: F BLA S A Rum - Sev
Turkey: A Gal - Ukr
Turkey: A Rum - Sev
Turkey: F NAf - MAO
Turkey: A Arm S A Rum - Sev
Turkey: A Vie S A Tri - Bud

Turkey correctly plays for postioning himself across the stalemate line as a greater priority than taking another center from France. Turkey breaks his usual patterns by arranging an attack on Sevastapol that uses an attempted cut of support from Ukraine. What I don't think he realized was that even if all of his moves had succeeded as planned, I'd still be in Rumania, as a dislodged army in Budapest would have had Rumania open for retreat. Always check those lines of retreat. Still, a very successful year for Turkey, who has finally succeeded in breaking the Russian deadlock on Sevastapol.

Winter, 1920

Once again, building in St. Petersburg in just the nick of time. The threat of a French fleet plundering my northern back yard is now neutralized, though France could still spite me by cutting my support of Moscow from there.

Tempo Analysis

My drubbing in southeast Europe shows up in the tempo count.

Analysis

I've fought the good fight, but it seems that it's all over except the shouting. Turkey will take Portugal and Marseilles without serious trouble and Rumania makes 18. Still, I intend to do everything in my power to make it as hard as possible for Turkey to win. For example, I can still recapture Vienna from this position, buying me one more year. Turkey is not in Marseilles yet (though it was open in front of him back in Spring of 1917!) and, if by some miracle I can take it before he secures all of his southest Europe centers, Marseilles can be held from the north side of the stalemate line. Slim as they are, I still have chances to thwart Turkish victory and I intend to try every last one of them.

Spring, 1921

France: A Par - Bre
France: F Edi - Cly
France: F NWG - BAR
France: A Gas S A Par - Bre

France doesn't appear to understand that the best way to spite Russia would be to support the Turkish fleet past Mid-Atlantic Ocean. Thanks to Turkey's loss of the Ukraine, the fleet in Barents now has no use at all.

Russia: F NTH S F Pic - Eng
Russia: A Bre S A Bur - Par (*dislodged*)
Russia: F Lvp - NAO
Russia: A Sil - Gal (*bounce*)
Russia: F Pic - Eng (*bounce*)
Russia: A Rum - Bud (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: A Mun - Tyr
Russia: A Gal - Vie
Russia: A Mos S A War - Ukr
Russia: F Eng - IRI (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bur - Par
Russia: A Boh S A Gal - Vie
Russia: A War - Ukr
Russia: F Nor S F NTH
Russia: A StP S A Mos

I figured I'd have a very good chance of catching the Ukraine inadequately defended this turn, with Turkey needing to eliminate the Army in Rumania, which was destroyed. I also manage to recapture Vienna for this year, staving off Turkish victory for one more year anyway. Unfortunately, my NAO-Iri-Eng line shift got partially bounced, so trying to evict Turkey from the Mid-Atlantic is not a plan that will happen this year. Still, that fleet is now contained and isn't going any further. I'm hanging on to this game by a thread. Sadly, I can't execute this fleet shift plan and save Brest at the same time and the army there is destroyed. The loss of this extra army in the French theater will prove devastating in the end.

Turkey: A Ser S A Ank - Rum
Turkey: A Bud S A Vie (*cut*)
Turkey: F ION - Tun
Turkey: F Spa/sc S F LYO - Mar
Turkey: F LYO - Mar
Turkey: F Ven H
Turkey: F BLA C A Ank - Rum
Turkey: A Ukr - Gal (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: A Sev S A Ank - Rum
Turkey: F MAO - IRI (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Arm S A Sev
Turkey: A Vie S A Bud (*cut, dislodged*)
Turkey: A Ank - BLA - Rum
Turkey: A Con - Bul
Turkey: F Smy - AEG

Turkey devotes himself whole-heartedly to the destruction of the Rumanian army though it costs him the destruction of his own forward unit in Ukraine. I guess he learned his lesson about back rank marauders from that French army earlier in the game. His army dislodged from Vienna retreats to Trieste. The Turkish navy breezes into Marseilles (finally!) without opposition. Turkey doesn't really need to worry about losing control of Ukraine at this point. With Marseilles, Spain and Portugal in pocket, he doesn't need to break through the stalemate line east of Switzerland to win.

Fall, 1921

France: A Bre - Par
France: F Cly - Lvp (*bounce*)
France: F BAR - Nor (*bounce*)
France: A Gas S A Bre - Par

France's decision to turn back to Paris saves himself from elimination this turn and will prove critically important to the outcome of the game.

Russia: F NTH - Edi
Russia: F NAO - Lvp (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Gal (*bounce*)
Russia: F Pic S F Eng - Bre
Russia: A Tyr S A Vie
Russia: A Vie S A Sil - Gal (*cut*)
Russia: A Mos S A Ukr
Russia: F Eng - Bre
Russia: A Par S F Eng - Bre (*dislodged*)
Russia: A Boh - Mun
Russia: A Ukr S A Sil - Gal (*cut*)
Russia: F Nor H
Russia: A StP H

I was really hoping that Turkey would decide his fleet in Mid-Atlantic had better things to do than support the French army in Brest. Fortunately, neither he nor France considered this possibility and I'm back in Brest. Unfortunately, France saves himself by attacking Paris and the army there is forced to retreat to Burgandy. Predictably, France tries to get back to Liverpool, so my fleet in North Atlantic gets to defend two provinces at once. Had Turkey snuck into the Channel this turn, that could have been a big problem, but I can no longer afford the luxury of conservatively covering all of my positional bases. Putting the last knife into France was a must if I'm to find a way to hold back Turkey without French interference. On the Turkish front, I thought that my defense of Galicia would be adequate, but Turkey puts heart and soul into occupying that key province.

Turkey: A Ser - Tri (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bud S A Rum - Gal
Turkey: F Tun - WES
Turkey: F Spa/sc - Por
Turkey: F Mar - Spa/sc (*bounce*)
Turkey: F Ven S A Ser - Tri
Turkey: F BLA S A Arm - Sev
Turkey: A Sev - Ukr (*bounce*)
Turkey: F MAO - Spa/nc (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Arm - Sev (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Tri - Vie (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Rum - Gal
Turkey: A Bul - Gre
Turkey: F AEG - ION

Turkey sews up the Iberian SC's and secures Marseilles. He's not worried about losing posession of the Mid-Atlantic at this point, since he can still keep Spain and Portugal without that. All he has to do to win is hang on to those prizes and execute the inevitable win of Vienna. Turkey, very surprisingly to me, gives up the siezure of Rumania to grab Galicia while he can. It's a serious risk at this point for him to pass up an SC to grab position. He should have covered his bet by ordering A Ser-Rum, or A Sev-Rum. It makes me think that he expected the attack on Galicia to bounce, but he couldn't count on that and he shouldn't have. It's a fine point, but an important one. At this stage of the game, one needs to keep track of all of the details. There's every indication that Turkey's failure to capture Rumania was unintended. It was unnecessary and could have cost him the game.

Winter, 1921

I had to look at this turn notice from the judge long and hard before I figured out what had happened. It took me a while to figure out that I had 17 SC's because Turkey had failed to capture Rumania. I then went back over the moves, recriminating myself for not considering the possibility that Turkey might do that, trying to figure out if I had a way to take 18 this year. It turned out that I didn't (as far as I can tell), though had France held in Brest, rather than attacking Paris, I would have won on this turn. Turkey's error came within one fickle French decision of costing himself the game.

Tempo Analysis

France loses all of his tempi via removals. Turkey's latter-game dominance is really starting to show in the tempo report now. Note that it has taken Turkey almost 50% more tempi to dominate the south than Russia has expended dominating the north. Students of the tactics of Diplomacy can add this data to the list of reasons that (i) Turkey tends to fall behind Russia in R/T alliances and (ii) Turkey is a hard power to solo with. If Turkey doesn't get past the north/south stalemate line early in the game, the effort he needs to expend getting to those last 6-7 SC's is much greater than is required by other powers. As much as anything else, Turkey's "lag factor" in getting his last SC's is what has kept me in this game.

Analysis

Examining my postion has put me on a little roller coaster of emotion. First, grateful to be alive, then confused at holding 17 SC's, after that, exasperated at that French thorn in my side. Not only has he managed to stay alive, but it's going to be impossible to kill him now. Thanks to the destruction of my second army in French territory, I don't have the unit strength to take Paris. Even if I focus on taking Paris, I'll do no better than exchange it for Rumania, then watch helplessly as Turkey squeezes me out of Vienna. The one opportunity I have to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat is to take Marseilles before Turkey can solidify his hold on it and hope that France can't effectively interfere.

Spring, 1922

France: A Par - Bre (*bounce*)

*sigh*

Russia: F Edi - Cly
Russia: F NAO - MAO (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Boh
Russia: F Pic - Eng
Russia: A Tyr - Pie
Russia: A Vie - Tyr
Russia: A Mos S A Ukr - War
Russia: F Bre S A Bur - Gas (*cut*)
Russia: A Bur - Gas
Russia: A Mun - Bur
Russia: A Ukr - War
Russia: F Nor - NTH
Russia: A StP - Lvn
Russia: A War - Sil

Desperate times call for desperate strategies. Turkey is destined to take Vienna eventually, so there's no point in clinging to it, but Marseilles can be held from the north side. This line shift is a full commitment to taking Marseilles now and setting up a real potential for stalemate. Fortunately, neither France nor Turkey anticipates this strategy and my moves to Gascony, Burgandy and Piedmont all succeed. If any one of them had been bounced, the game would have been over. As it stands, Marseilles can now be taken by force, as the support from Piedmont is uncuttable. Turkey should have made it a higher priority a long time ago to work an army into Venice and keep it there. His failure to do so has kept the west end of my line secure for years and now allows this kind of maneuver, undermining his own line.

Turkey: A Ser S A Con - Rum
Turkey: A Bud S A Gal - Vie
Turkey: F WES - Spa/sc
Turkey: F Por S F MAO
Turkey: F Mar H
Turkey: F Ven S A Tri
Turkey: F BLA C A Con - Rum
Turkey: A Sev S A Con - Rum
Turkey: F MAO H
Turkey: A Arm S A Sev
Turkey: A Tri S A Gal - Vie
Turkey: A Gal - Vie
Turkey: A Gre - ION - Apu
Turkey: F ION C A Gre - Apu
Turkey: A Con - BLA - Rum
Turkey: F Smy - AEG

Turkey takes his forced victories at Rumania and Vienna, probably thinking that these would be sufficient for victory. He overlooked the vulnerability of Marseilles and the possibility that sufficient force could be brought to bear there to lose it. Ordering F Mid-Gas would have been virtually risk free in this situation (losing Mid-Atlantic means nothing at this point) and would have secured the victory this year. Turkey failed to take into account that any unit within two provinces of Marseilles was a potential threat and took no actions to prevent that threat coming to fruition. The convoy of an army to the Italian boot in order to add it to the end of his line comes much later than it should have. This is the kind of flanking maneuver that Turkey should have attempted a long time ago rather than continually trying to push his way through the center of the Russian line.

Fall, 1922

France: A Par - Bre (*bounce*)

Not very creative. If he wants to spite me, he has better choices.

Russia: F Cly - NAO
Russia: F NAO - IRI
Russia: A Boh - Vie (*bounce*)
Russia: F Eng S F Bre
Russia: A Pie S A Bur - Mar
Russia: A Tyr S A Boh - Vie
Russia: A Mos - Ukr (*bounce*)
Russia: F Bre H
Russia: A Gas - Spa (*bounce*)
Russia: A Bur - Mar
Russia: A War - Sil
Russia: F NTH - Bel
Russia: A Lvn - Mos (*bounce*)
Russia: A Sil - Mun

Executing the forced victory at Marseilles and trying to maneuver to seal the stalemate line pretty much explains all of my maneuvers. At this point, I was very afraid that France might catch on to my plan and order A Par-Bur. That explains my ordering a fleet to Belgium.

Turkey: A Ser S A Tri
Turkey: A Bud S A Vie
Turkey: F Spa/sc S F MAO (*cut*)
Turkey: F Por S F MAO
Turkey: F Mar S F Spa/sc (*cut, dislodged*)
Turkey: F Ven - ADR
Turkey: F BLA S A Arm - Sev
Turkey: A Sev - Ukr
Turkey: F MAO S F Spa/sc
Turkey: A Arm - Sev
Turkey: A Tri S A Apu - Ven
Turkey: A Vie S A Tri (*cut*)
Turkey: A Apu - Ven
Turkey: F ION - TYS
Turkey: A Rum S A Sev - Ukr
Turkey: F AEG - ION

The Turkish army finally advances out of Armenia into a useful position and a Turkish army finally makes an appearance in Venice. Turkey should have been focused on accomplishing these maneuvers years ago. There were many occasions to do so, if Turkey had focused on positioning his forces for maximum influence over key territiory (think of those years that Turkey spent passively supporting himself in place and bouncing me out of Budapest while maneuvering only his fleets). At this point, they represent icing on the cake, more than anything else, though the army in Venice will now exert influence over Piedmont (and, therefore, Marseilles) which the fleet previously could not accomplish. The fleet dislodged from Marseilles retreats to Gulf of Lyon.

Winter, 1922

Tempo Analysis

Again, note how many more tempi Turkey has had to expend to position himself along his half of the stalemate line than Russia has expended to do more or less the same job. Board mechanics have definately favored Russia in the dynamics of this position. It is also interesting to note that Turkey takes 11 tempi to walk armies from his home centers to Warsaw, Moscow and St. Petersburg, while it takes 16 tempi for his fleets to sail from Smyrna to Portugal, Spain and Marseilles. Tempo analysis confirms what a lot of experienced players already know: Turkey's armies can steamroll across the stalemate line into Russia a lot faster than his fleets can ever reach Gibraltar. The tempo cost of achieving the goals you are attempting should always be a factor to consider when weighing competing strategies.

Evaluation

Against all odds, I'm still alive and even have reason to still hope that a draw can be achieved. The stalemate is still far from secure but, provided France doesn't interfere with Marseilles, holding it is still a possibility.

Spring, 1923

France: A Par - Gas (*bounce*)

This active sabotage of the defense of Marseilles was the maddening last straw that caused me to lose my composure and write a poisoned pen EOG aimed at France. France is safe from elimination and Turkish victory can still be prevented. This is not a matter of a player chosing his mode of defeat. This is a matter of a player deliberately chosing to throw a position that he can still participate in as a three way draw--with only one SC yet. Thinking that France had made this choice out of spite, I reviled him in my EOG. Recently, as I said, the French player admitted that his sin here was one of omission, not commission. He did what he did assuming that a draw was not a possible outcome and that the game would not end until there was a winner. If those were the actual conditions of the contest, then France's actions could be seen as within the spirit of the contest. Indeed, there is nothing else he can do from where he is than throw the game into Turkey's lap. But as we all know, a draw is possible and if France repeats this maneuver in the Fall, he will throw that draw away for both of us.

Russia: F NAO S F Bre - MAO
Russia: F IRI S F Bre - MAO
Russia: A Boh - Mun
Russia: F Eng S F Bre - MAO
Russia: A Pie S A Tyr - Ven
Russia: A Tyr - Ven (*bounce*)
Russia: A Mos S A War
Russia: F Bre - MAO
Russia: A Gas S A Mar - Spa (*cut*)
Russia: A Mar - Spa (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: A Sil S A War
Russia: F Bel - Pic
Russia: A Lvn - Pru
Russia: A Mun - Bur
Russia: A StP - Lvn
Russia: A War S A Mos

Anticipating that the Turkish fleet in Mid-Atlantic would cut Gascony's support of Marseilles, I make a desperate bid for another center. Assuming that A Ven-Pie will be ordered to cut that support, I support an attack on Venice. Hoping for miracles, I also attack Spain. Turkey is ahead of me this time, though, and his orders anticipate and thwart these attempts. I evict the Turkish fleet from Mid-Atlantic to prevent a repeat of this maneuver in the Fall and continue to position my armies for defense of a stalemate. My army dislodged from Marseilles is destroyed.

Turkey: A Ser - Tri (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bud S A Vie
Turkey: F Spa/sc S F LYO - Mar
Turkey: F Por S F Spa/sc
Turkey: F LYO - Mar
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri - Ven
Turkey: F BLA S A Sev
Turkey: A Ukr S A Rum - Gal
Turkey: F MAO - Gas (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: A Sev S A Ukr
Turkey: A Tri - Ven (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Vie S A Rum - Gal
Turkey: A Ven - Pie (*bounce*)
Turkey: F TYS - LYO
Turkey: A Rum - Gal
Turkey: F ION - TYS
Turkey: A Con - Bul

It's all just proper execution for Turkey now, and this is it. His fleet retreats to North Africa.

Fall, 1923

France: A Par - Gas (*bounce*)

I knew it was coming, but I was still enraged. My capacity for dispassionate review of this game would come only much later.

Russia: F NAO - MAO (*bounce*)
Russia: F IRI S F NAO - MAO
Russia: A Mun - Ruh
Russia: F Eng S F NAO - MAO
Russia: A Pie - Mar (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: A Tyr - Mun
Russia: A Mos S A War
Russia: F MAO - Spa/sc (*bounce*)
Russia: A Gas S A Pie - Mar (*cut*)
Russia: A Sil S A War
Russia: F Pic - Bre
Russia: A Pru S A War
Russia: A Bur S A Pie - Mar
Russia: A Lvn S A Mos
Russia: A War S A Mos

Absent French intereference, this would have been sufficient to recapture Marseilles and hold it forever. Further, with uncuttable supports of Moscow, Warsaw, Silesia and Munich (this presumes a build of an army in St. Pete after the recapture of Marseilles), the stalemate line would now be secure. Turkey would have had to settle for 17. France would have been safe, since it would take every army I had to hold the line. Curiously (and doing no good for my sense of ire), the Judge program required me to submit a useless retreat order for my dislodged army before the game would end. For the record, it retreated to Tuscany.

Turkey: A Ser - Tri
Turkey: A Bud S A Gal
Turkey: F Spa/sc S F Mar (*cut*)
Turkey: F Por S F Spa/sc
Turkey: F Mar S A Ven - Pie
Turkey: F ADR S A Tri - Ven
Turkey: F BLA S A Sev
Turkey: A Ukr S A Gal
Turkey: F NAf - WES (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Sev S A Ukr
Turkey: A Tri - Ven
Turkey: A Vie S A Gal
Turkey: A Ven - Pie
Turkey: F LYO S F Mar
Turkey: A Gal S A Vie
Turkey: F TYS - WES (*bounce*)
Turkey: A Bul - Gre

And th-th-th-th-that's all folks!

Game End Tempo Analysis.

I kept up the tempo count to the bitter end to illustrate a couple of points. One I've already made--that not all starting postions are created equal. Turkey requires about 1/3 more tempi to control the south half of the stalemate line than Russia requires to control the north half. The other essential point is that it doesn't take that many tempi to win. Russia only needed four more (the theoretical distance from Warsaw to Paris) for a total of 46 to win. Turkey won this game with 62 tempi. Given how few tempi are actually required to win a game, the gain or loss of them can and should be an important factor in analyzing any position or strategy.

Concluding Thoughts

Though I lost, I regard this game as one of my best efforts and certainly one of the most exciting. Every element of Caissic theory and tactics was employed at one point or another in the game. Given France's behavior over the last 1/3 of the game, to have achieved a position where a technical stalemate of Turkey was possible on the last move was a form of victory all by itself. Indeed, I was only one small stroke of luck short of winning the game in 1921. Though the outcome upset me at the time, I've found it a very pleasant exercise to review and study the game. My congratulations to everyone that made it to the end of this article. I hope that you've also enjoyed the exercise.

What follows is the summary information, for the record. I'd like to give special recognition to the fact that the game proceded from beginning to end without a replacement player and with remarkably few occurances of lateness. My thanks to all of the players for their dedication, as well as, of course the Master and the Judge Keeper.

Summary of game 'alicew'.

  Master:        Brian Kieslich     briank@fredericia.mail.telia.com
  Austria:       Paul C Evans       fmdesignpe@aol.com
  England:       Ben Sauer          B.E.Sauer@sussex.ac.uk
  France:        Thomas Mittelbach  smittelbach@pharmosan.com
  Germany:       Richard Remillard  remillard@golden.net
  Italy:         Stewart Alexander  scalexan@students.uiuc.edu
  Russia:        Paul D. Windsor    pnkwindsor@msn.com
  Turkey:        Peter Wachtel      PeterW@castalloy.com.au

Game Started: Thu May  7 22:20:48 1998
Game won: Wed Sep  2 07:12:48 1998

The game was won by Turkey.

Historical Supply Center Summary
--------------------------------
    Ven Nap Edi Lvp Par Por Bel Mun Ber Swe Stp Mos Con Smy Rum Ser Vie
Year  Rom Tun Lon Bre Mar Spa Hol Kie Den Nor War Sev Ank Bul Gre Bud
Tri
1900 I I I . E E E F F F . . . . G G G . . . R R R R T T T . . . . A A A
1901 I I I I E E E F F F F F . G G G G G R E R R R R T T T T R . A A A A
1902 I I I I E E E F F F F F F G G G G G R E R G R R T T T T R A A R A A
1903 I I I I E E E F F F F F F G G G G G R E R R R R T T T T R T A A A A
1904 I I I I E E E F F F F F G G G G G G G R R R R R T T T T R T A A A A
1905 A I I I E E E F F F F F G G G G G G G R R R R R T T T T R T T A A A
1906 A A I I G E E F F F F F G G G G G G G R R R R R T T T T R T T R R A
1907 I A A T E F F F F F F E F G G G G G G G R R R R T T T T R T T R R T
1908 T T I T E F F F F F F F F F R G R G G R R R R R T T T T R T T R R T
1909 T T T T E F F F F F F F F F R G G R R R R R R R T T T T R T T R R T
1910 T T T T F F F F F F F F F F R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T T R F
1911 T T T T F F F F F F F F F F R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T F T R R T
1912 T T T T F F F F F F F F F F F R R R R R R R R T T T T T R T F R R T
1913 T T T T R F F F F F F F F F F F R R R R R R R T T T T T R T R R R R
1914 T F T T F F F F F F F F R F R F R F R R R R R T T T T T R T T R R T
1915 T T T F F R F F F F F F F F R R R F R R R R R R T T T T T T T R R T
1916 T T T F F R F F F F R F F F R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T R R T
1917 T T T T F F F R R F F F F F R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T R R T
1918 T T T T F F F R R F F F R F R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T T R T
1919 T T T T F R F F R F F F R R R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T R R T
1920 T T T T F R R R F F F T R R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T R T T T T T
1921 T T T T R R R R F T T T R R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T R T T T R T
1922 T T T T R R R R F R T T R R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T T T T T
1923 T T T T R R R R F T T T R R R R R R R R R R R T T T T T T T T T T T

 
History of Supply Center Counts
-------------------------------
Power    1900 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09   Player
Austria     3   4   4   4   4   4   3   2*          Paul C Evans
England     3   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   1   1   Ben Sauer
France      3   5   6   6   5   5   5   7   9   9   Thomas Mittelbach
Germany     3   5   6   5   7   7   8   7   3   2   Richard Remillard
Italy       3   4   4   4   4   3   2   1   1       Stewart Alexander
Russia      4   6   6   6   6   6   8   7  10  11   Paul D. Windsor
Turkey      3   4   4   5   5   6   6   8  10  11   Peter Wachtel
Index:     10  21  24  24  25  25  29  31  41  46

Power    1910 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19   Player
France     11  11  12  11  12  11   9   8   7   6   Thomas Mittelbach
Russia     11  11  11  13  11  12  14  14  14  16   Paul D. Windsor
Turkey     12  12  11  10  11  11  11  12  13  12   Peter Wachtel
Index:     55  55  55  55  55  55  56  57  59  62

Power    1920 '21 '22 '23                           Player
France      4   1   1   1                           Thomas Mittelbach
Russia     15  17+ 16  15                           Paul D. Windsor
Turkey     15  16  17  18                           Peter Wachtel
Index:     66  78  78  78

* = 1 unused build.
+ = 3 unused builds.

Index is the sum of squares of the number of supply centers divided by
the number of players.  It is a measure of how far the game has progressed.

Paul Windsor
(rfetagi@gmail.com)