Houdini Blues
Issue 8, Late December 2001
Welcome to this, the sixth issue of Houdini Blues, a subzine of TAP edited by Michael Lowrey, 6903 Kentucky Derby Drive, Charlotte, NC 28215. My email address is mlowrey@infi.net or call me at (704) 569-4269. Bonus points if you catch the music reference in the subzine name.
© 2001 by Michael Lowrey. All right reserved.
First of all, some administrative notes. Houdini Blues has a game opening in Diplomacy. This is a continuation of the game opening I had in CCC, for which Matthew Matz, Saul Spiel, Brendan Mooney, Fred Wiedemeyer, Dan Gorham, and Frank Easton had signed up. If you're one of these folks, please confirm that you're still interested. The game fee is $5 plus you must, of course, get TAP by one of the usual sources. In addition, I would like to start another Outpost game. Please let me know if you're interested.
In the weeks since September 11, a great deal of attention has been placed on aviation in the U.S. The air transportation industry certainly faces significant new challenges since September 11. Aviation security, something taken a bit too casually in this country for many years, is now a headline issue. Many airlines are losing money at record rates and laying off thousands of employees. That said, the nation faces another serious problem a lack of capacity in the air transportation system that is receiving scant attention. Yet only by to acting now, despite the short-term reductions in people flying, can we hope to catch up and build a robust aviation infrastructure for the future.
Americans boarded airliners in record numbers during the late 1990s. With the increase in air traffic came an even faster increase in flight delays. The FAA reported that delays were up 58 percent between 1995 and 1999, with an additional 14 percent increase in the first half of 2000. While some delays were the result of labor disputes and other passing issues, most reflected a worsening capacity shortage within the U.S. air transportation system.
While demand for air travel, fuelled by a booming economy and low unemployment, increased rapidly, our ability to accommodate flights grew at a much slower rate. Fundamentally, the air transportation system labors under significant capacity limitations. There is a limited amount of airspace through which planes can fly. Likewise, planes must take off and land from a limited number of runways. While there may be enough capacity on a good day, things fall apart quickly during bad weather - which is responsible for over 70 percent of flight delays. Inclement weather greatly reduces, much as pylons on a road can reduce a four-lane road to just two lanes and create backups. Weather-related constraints in
Air Capacity Remains Critical
the sky can effect a large area - a band of strong storms that aircraft need to avoid - or a specific airport as low clouds, rain, or strong winds increase the required separation between planes and limits the number of runways in use.
The aftermath of September 11 and recession have forced most airlines to dramatically reduce their flights, which has eased pressure on the system. These reductions are likely to be only a short-term phenomenon; in time Americans will return to flying. The demand for air travel grows as both population and per capita income increase. Likewise, the Gulf War and associated recession and the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 did not prevent airline travel from growing rapidly in the 1990s.
Unfortunately, as the 1990s also proved, there are no easy ways to dramatically increasing air capacity. Rearranging flight schedules to avoid periods where the number of planned takeoffs and landing exceed an airport's theoretical capacity can help, though this is not the primary cause of delays. Even a heavily debated idea such as "land and hold short", a technique whereby a landing aircraft lands and stops short of an intersecting runway, is projected to only increase capacity by 15 percent at affected airports. Improved radar, meanwhile, can add four takeoffs or landings an hour at airports with parallel runways separated by less than 4,500 feet.
While certainly every little bit helps, the improvements needed to significantly increase capacity are long-term projects, including adding runways and a new flight control approach called "Free Flight" that are the most threatened in the current environment. At the airport level, adding runways is best way to increase capacity. It also is expensive, generates local opposition from those that would be subject to increased noise, and can take a decade or more to accomplish. In the 1990s, U.S. airports added only 17 new runways. Free Flight, meanwhile, is a FAA concept for better using the nation's air space. Instead of having airliners fly along a limited number of predefined corridors under active air traffic control, planes would be allowed to fly more directly between cities with less direction from control centers.
Both long-term solutions are very much in danger in the post-September 11. Airports across the country have already delayed $16 billion in improvements, including runway projects in a number of cities including Charlotte and Dallas. As for Free Flight, any system with greater active ground control negates much of the system's potential
While it is understandable to focus on security and economic issues in the wake of September 11, the U.S. air transportation system has other fundamental problems that also need to be addressed. Unless they are, we risk facing very substantial delays in a few short years at airports that have little to do with added security precautions.
The deadline for all games is January 23.